A sideways glance at Ukraine war news
Forever wars, open source intelligence, pipeline sabotage and much more
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com
Each Friday I will post the weeks ‘diary’ here. All feedback/comments welcome.
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Monday 14th November
All wars have at least one common characteristic: the list of possible outcomes is a short one. Sometimes there is an unambiguous victory. There are negotiated settlements. Or the war goes on forever. China is discovering that its war on Covid, ‘zero Covid’, has the makings of a forever war. The unsustainability of that is obvious to many people, including financial markets, where bets are being laid that things will soon change.
Similarly, in Ukraine, there will either be an outright victory, a negotiated settlement or a forever war. That’s the answer to the regularly asked question, what’s the end game? Most military types think a single winner is the least likely outcome. Anyone who dismisses the possibility of a war stretching indefinitely into the future is reminded that fighting has, in fact, been going on in eastern Ukraine since 2014.
The horrific possibility of a forever war is prompting, with increasing frequency, many commentators to look at the potential for a negotiated outcome. Every day we see learned articles noting the inevitability of peace talks. Analysts note the many hints that talks are indeed about to take place. And always conclude, confusingly, that talks are as far away as ever, given that nobody can tell the Ukrainians to cede territory - which is what negotiations would amount to.
The eminent historian Max Hastings writes today that ‘but for the US gift of $45bn in arms and cash, Ukraine would be toast’. He thinks the most likely outcome is a version of a forever war: talks will end the fighting but probably not until years have passed and not until Putin has left the stage. Hastings’ biggest concern is the simple fact that without continued US aid, Ukraine will lose. Europe has promised much but delivered little.
It really is quite surprising to see just how European rhetoric has not been matched by action. Remember that increase of €100bn in German defence spending? Vanishingly little is in evidence. Measuring French arms shipments to Ukraine has been easy because there have been so few of them.
Hastings doesn’t see any of that changing, unless Republicans succeed in their efforts to reduce the flow of US aid. Which will have obvious consequences.
Tuesday 15th November
Xi Jinping calls for respect of Ukraine's territorial integrity' is, on the face of it, a headline suggestive of a major change in the geopolitical landscape. Any Chinese criticism of Russia, implied or otherwise, would be big news. The story underneath the headline in today’s Telegraph is, however, slightly less interesting. The relevant phrase wasn’t something anyone in China said, but rather was contained in a Tweet written by Emmanuel Macron, in which he claimed to be quoting the Chinese leader. The French President was referencing the draft G20 communique which, in the tortured language of diplomacy, hints at increased international isolation for the Kremlin. Henry Kissinger has even made an appearance, welcoming Sino-US ‘bridge-building efforts’.
One of the least expected outcomes of the war has been glimmers of diplomacy - not just between China and the US. Biden’s G20 face-to-face with Xi was accompanied by a promise of a visit by US Secretary of State Blinken to China ‘some time in the New Year’. All that has now been followed up by an unscheduled meeting between Biden and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s President. The meeting has not been confirmed by the White House and, according to Bloomberg, US journalists at the G20 were not allowed to cover it. The story has, however, been widely reported in Turkish media.
The best sources of news from the front line remain independent bloggers and Tweeters. One regular OSINTer (open source intelligence) yesterday Tweeted an extraordinary example of how Ukrainians have adapted old and new technologies. A 1960s Soviet-made grenade launcher was seen being fired by someone taking instructions from another soldier using what look like an iPad with a video game controller attached. The iPad was displaying signals from a drone, itself controlled by the iPad operator. The instructions to the grenadier were, essentially, ‘up a bit, down a bit’ as the drone relayed video of where the shells were landing. Crude but very effective.
Wednesday 16th November
We try to avoid mere repetition of the main stories making the headlines but it would be remiss not to note the ongoing developments concerning the missile strike on Polish territory. US intelligence sources quoted by AP have confirmed President Biden’s original suggestion that Russia was not involved. Escalation and its avoidance appear to be at the heart of the West’s relatively muted response. That stands in contrast to former Russian President Medvedev’s statement, made in the wake of the explosion in Poland, suggesting ‘the West is moving closer to World War’. Regular readers of Medvedev’s Tweets will know that this is not the first time he has said this. Dmitry Polyansky, the head of Russia’s mission to the UN, overnight made similar remarks.
Most of us have heard about Article 5 of NATO’s constitution that commits the alliance to mutual self-defence in the event of an attack on a member’s territory. Poland is widely reported to have triggered Article 4 which states: “The parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the parties is threatened”. The practical import of the Polish request is, according to Reuters, a meeting of NATO’s 30 member states today in Brussels. A post-meeting press conference is due at about midday.
Article 4 has been triggered seven times since NATOs foundation in 1949, most recently in February 2022 just after the war began. Then, many countries issued the request, including most NATO members in Eastern Europe. Poland itself deployed Article 4 in 2014 when the conflict in Eastern Ukraine first flared up. Turkey is a serial invoker of Article 4.
U.K. inflation rose again last month, the ONS reported this morning, in news that will have surprised nobody. The ONS noted that the gap between diesel and petrol prices was at its widest ever level. Industry experts point out that Europe imports a lot of refined products from Russia, not just crude oil. Diesel imports are particularly significant and are due to end in February. It’s not immediately obvious where replacement supplies are going to come from.
Thursday 17th November
A Dutch court will today provide a reminder that the war in Eastern Ukraine has been going on since 2014. On July 17th of that year, a Boeing 777 en route from Amsterdam to Malaysia was downed by a missile strike over Donetsk. All 298 passengers and crew died. Verdicts on four men, tried in absentia, will be delivered later today. They include a former colonel from Russia’s intelligence service who was, at the time, serving as Defence Minister of the ‘breakaway’ Donetsk region. The case has been years in the making and could yet go to appeal. It is hoped that it will provide something of a template for war crimes committed more recently.
The head of the CIA is busy talking to lots of interesting people. This week William Burns has met with his Kremlin counterpart, ‘Putin’s spy chief’, Sergey Naryshkin and Ukraine’s President Zelensky. Separately of course.
The head of Britain’s MI5, Ken McCallum, in his annual security update delivered yesterday said that, globally, 400 Russian spies have been sent home in the past year. Britain has also denied visas to dozens of Russians trying to enter the U.K. under diplomatic cover. He went on to say that Russia’s new best friend, Iran, has attempted at least 10 attacks on UK residents this year. These attempted killings and/or kidnappings were all thwarted by the intelligence services.
The Sydney Morning Herald reports today that Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest is making a A$ 750 million (US$ 500 million) gift to a global ‘Marshall Fund for Ukraine’, a name that references the US-led effort to rebuild Europe after the Second World War. The fund is due to be launched today by the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock. The Herald quotes President Zelensky as saying ‘he and Forrest would not replace communist-era rubbish infrastructure if Ukraine wins the war’, instead they plan, apparently, to use slightly more up to date tools, techniques and materials.
Friday 18th November
Swedish investigators say they have found traces of explosives at the damaged Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. Reuters reports that various objects have been recovered that, according to the Swedish State Prosecutor, contain traces and evidence of explosives. Russia has always alleged that it was the British Special Boat Service that blew up the pipelines. No evidence has ever been produced to support the Russian claims, nor have they said why the British might have been minded to destroy the gas pipes.
Al-Jazeera reports today from Indonesia, host of the just concluded G-20 meeting (G-19 according to Ukraine’s President Zelensky, referencing Vladimir Putin’s absence). The English language news agency, owned by World Cup hosts Qatar, conducts a deep dive into why so many people in S. East Asia support Russia’s war. Radityo Dharmaputra, a lecturer in Russian and Eastern European Studies at Indonesia’s Universitas Airlangga, tells Al-Jazeera that ‘Russia is seen as a noble anti-Western power challenging the hegemony of a hypocritical West.’ A long history of domestic strongman leaders has led, apparently, to greater tolerance, if not admiration for Vladimir Putin.
Europe’s hunt for natural gas supplies to replace Russian imports is already focussed on next winter and beyond. Bloomberg today reports on a fundamental clash between consumers and producers of LNG. Essentially, Europe wants the gas now but is utterly uninterested in signing 15 year targets, something LNG suppliers typically require. Producers need reasonable certainty of demand before committing the vast capital spending necessary to expand capacity.
European’s apparently believe their own green energy targets and assume that demand for gas will not grow, perhaps even tail off, after 2025. Looming on the horizon is a serious push, particularly by the US, for hydrogen-based energy, something that could threaten natural gas producers. As ever, it comes down to price. Wind and solar already compete with fossil fuels; if hydrogen ever gets close to $1 per kg things get very interesting - that’s equivalent to $8/mmbtu. At that level, hydrogen competes with gas. And that is the exact price the Americans are targeting. The energy landscape is rapidly changing, for both producers and consumers.