A sideways look at Ukrainian War News

Nukes to Belarus, arms-for-food and the tanks start to arrive

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

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Monday March 27th

Following Vladimir Putin’s announcement that he is sending nuclear weapons to Belarus, a spokesman for the US National Security Council said on Sunday that there is no evidence yet of any installation works or movement of weapons. Some analysts have speculated that Putin is long on rhetoric but short on action. Western intelligence officials note that Russia’s announcement last year of a ‘higher alert’ status for its nuclear weapons was not followed by any substantive actions. Writing in The Guardian, Julian Borger points out that Moscow has been building nuclear storage facilities for the past seven years in the enclave of Kaliningrad with no evidence of any weapons actually arriving there. Ukraine has responded to the apparent decision to station nuclear weapons in Belarus with a call for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

Al Jazeera reports on mounting tensions in a Kyiv monastery, host to Ukrainian Orthodox monks.The government has been cracking down on the monks for months, alleging close contacts with the Russian Orthodox Church, whose patriarch is a prominent supporter of Moscow’s war. The residents of the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra monastery complex face eviction later this month. 

Putin was interviewed yesterday on Moscow State TV in an apparent attempt to prepare the Russian people for the next phase of the war, now widely thought likely to include a Ukrainian counter offensive. Western intelligence briefings suggest Russia is moving to a defensive posture. Putin hinted that he is now going to just wait, claiming the Russian ‘military industrial complex’ will be able to out-produce the West. He claimed Ukraine is firing 5000 artillery shells a day but the US can only manufacture 15000 a month. The US Institute for the Study of War points out today that these and similar claims are simply unsupportable. Many people don’t realise just how small is the size of Russia’s economy. The US economy is 10 times bigger, for example. 

Tuesday 28th March

The International Olympic Committee’s executive board meets to today. On the agenda is Russian participation at the 2024 Paris games. Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia and Ukraine have issued a joint appeal for a complete ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes. IOC President Thomas Bach has been at pains to insist that politics should not enter sport; a ban seems most unlikely. In Germany last week Bach said “If politics decide who can take part in a competition, then sport and athletes become tools of politics." Sky News today reports that the IOC has employed a UN official, the special rapporteur for cultural rights Alexandra Xanthaki, who is said to be in favour of even allowing the Russian military to compete since “they are only following orders”.

Russia is warning its neighbours of “serious consequences” if it submits to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. In the wake of court’s decision to charge Putin with war crimes and to issue an arrest warrant, Moscow yesterday warned Armenia not to implement anything the ICC says. Al Jazeera reports that Armenia, a traditional Russian ally, has been edging away from Moscow since the war started and is considering becoming a state party to the Rome statute, the formal step that recognises the ICC.

Several analysts have pointed out that Putin’s announcement of his decision to send nuclear weapons to Belarus stands in opposition to last week’s joint communique with China. Xi and Putin explicitly called for countries not to deploy nuclear weapons in other countries. Perhaps the “no limits” relationship isn’t going as well as the Kremlin hoped.

On the day that heavy Western armour, particularly battle tanks, finally reaches Ukraine, it remains the case that Europe, in particular, has dithered in the supply of weapons. That has prompted Ukraine to search for alternatives, particularly with respect to drones. The Economist hints that new technological breakthroughs are imminent with Russia becoming increasingly worried about significant drone attacks far behind the front line. Having made a big bet on a war of attrition at that front line, Russia is said to be scrambling to shore up defences as far back as Moscow itself.

Wednesday 29th March

Russia’s military dragged in around half a million new recruits last year, exacerbating worker shortages at a time of record low unemployment. Up to two million young men have fled overseas to avoid conscription, a number destined to increase given Putin’s plan to recruit another 400,000 for his ‘forever war’. A Bloomberg analysis of numbers concludes that the working age population win Russia will shrink by 6.5% over the next decade. Russian unemployment is currently at 3.6%. Many firms and headhunters are lamenting a shortage of workers. 

“With an abundance of space and superlative amenities across her luxurious decks, you’ll be spoilt for choice on a luxury yacht charter aboard Alfa Nero. She has sensational features such as a dance floor, beauty salon, spa, elevator, beach club and gym”. That’s the advertising blurb for a vessel currently moored in Antigua, long thought to be owned by sanctioned Russian oligarch Andrey Guryev. In response to Bloomberg’s enquiries, Guryev’s representatives denied any knowledge of the boat. In fact, nobody claims ownership of the 80m gin palace, currently costing the Antiguan authorities a small fortune in maintenance. They plan to auction it off at the end of this week. Elsewhere around the world, impounded yachts are said to be costing taxpayers millions in maintenance fees.

If Bakhmut fell to Russian forces, President Vladimir Putin would “sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran,” Zelenskiy said in an interview with The Associated Press. “If he will feel some blood — smell that we are weak — he will push, push, push,” the Ukrainian leader added. Zelensky was his usual clear self, explaining that his greatest fear is the West will fall for China’s ‘peace plan’, essentially a freezing of the front line in its  current position and a ceasefire. If Russia starts to score some battlefield wins, the Ukrainian President believes that China’s proposals will become more attractive to the US and Europe. Hence his determination to hold Bakhmut. 

Thursday 30th March

‘Synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery’ isn’t like most of the pictures that are easily available through various open source intelligence channels. As the name suggests, these are pictures of such quality they are highly prized by the military. Members of the public can access all sorts of satellite photography but the high resolution stuff isn’t usually available, restricted either to spy agencies, the military and/or the highest bidder. 

Spacety is a Chinese satellite company that specialises in the high resolution stuff. The US sanctioned Spacety a few weeks ago and is urging the EU to do the same. Bloomberg reports that Spacety transferred images of Ukrainian force positions to Terra Terra, a Russian firm that subsequently gave the pictures to the mercenary group, Wagner. The EU has been slow to sanction Spacety because it is nervous about being sued. Sanctioned companies can potentially demand in court to see the evidence against them. It is thought that the US cares less than the EU about this litigation threat. In any event, the Americans seem to be reluctant to share with the EU their evidence about Spacety.

The US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley yesterday told the Armed Services Committee that Russian forces, predominantly the Wagner mercenary group, have made no progress over the past three weeks in the battle for Bakhmut. American lawmakers asked Milley just how have the Ukrainians managed to hold on to Bakhmut given the scale and duration of the Russian onslaught. ‘The Ukrainians have fought very well’ was Milley’s less than insightful response. An intelligence briefing from UK’s Ministry of Defence reports that Ukrainian forces have pushed back Wagner forces away from a key supply route into Bakhmut.

Poland is asking the EU to do something about an influx of cheap Ukrainian grain. Partially diverted from the usual Black Sea ports, Ukrainian produce has been exported over land, Westwards into Poland and other EU countries. Prices have slipped to the point where they are causing pain for Eastern European farmers.  

Friday 31st March

The White House has accused North Korea of supplying weapons to Russia. Spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. believes a Russian delegation is on the way to Pyongyang to negotiate a guns-for-food-swap, in violation of UN sanctions. A few days ago the Americans sanctioned a Slovakian man for brokering North Korean arms shipments to Russia. Sky News reports on other sanctions-busting tactics, including ship to ship oil transfers in obscure parts of the world, with both the final destination and, in particular, the origin of the oil obscured. 

President Zelensky spoke via video link to the Austrian Parliament yesterday, thanking the lawmakers for their humanitarian assistance. Austria has maintained a neutral stance towards the war and has not supplied any military help to Kyiv. Indeed, it is constitutionally bound to neutrality. More than twenty far right Austrian MPs walked out while Zelensky was speaking. The Freedom Party has a track record of support for Russia. During a previous coalition government, one of its members, Karin Kneissl, held the post of foreign minister. The BBC reports that she was criticised for dancing with Vladimir Putin at her wedding.

Russia appears to have taken another American citizen hostage. Evan Gershkovich, a reporter for the Wall St Journal has been arrested on spying charges in Yekaterinburg. In what looks like a repeat of the Brittney Griner saga, some analysts think this will end with a swap between the US and Russia whereby an innocent U.S. citizen is exchanged for a Russian spy. Griner, a basketball player, was swapped for an arms dealer. A man recently named in the US as a Russian spy, currently languishing in a Brazilian jail, is a favourite swap candidate. 

In a remarkable piece of reporting, Carlotta Gall of the New York Times describes the command and control centre of the Adam Tactical Group, an elite unit sent six weeks ago by Ukraine to the battle for Bakhmut. Pictures of soldiers sitting in front of multiple video screens remind us of the role of technology in modern warfare. The stories told by individual soldiers about the fighting for Bakhmut are remarkable and harrowing,