A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Scenes from Flanders, Ukraine lion cubs, dumb munitions & much more
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com
Each Friday I will post the weeks ‘diary’ here. All feedback/comments welcome.
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Monday 28th November
Jim O’Brien, top diplomat in the US State Department’s Office of Sanctions Coordination, might be expected to say ‘sanctions against Russia are working’. And that’s exactly what he did say during a visit to the Black Sea port Odessa on Sunday. Speaking to CNN, O’Brien cited Russian difficulties with battlefield communications, coordination of troop movements and overall lack of military success. O’Brien’s main reason for popping up in Odessa was to highlight the export of Ukrainian grain to countries such as Somalia, Yemen, Sudan and South Sudan.
Bakhmut, in the Donbas region of Ukraine, is seeing heavy fighting with reports of large numbers of casualties on both sides. The New York Times suggests that analysts are baffled over Russia’s attempts to capture the small city that once housed 70,000 people. Elsewhere on the front line, activity is mostly confined to digging in for the winter. But not in Bakhmut. It no longer has any discernible strategic significance apart from offering Moscow a ‘Russian (ie Ukrainian) territory recaptured’ headline. Ukraine and Russian forces are using up astonishing numbers of artillery shells - both sides are scouring the world looking for fresh munitions, including artillery gun barrels which are wearing out through overuse. Even American producers are said to be struggling to keep up. Photos from Bakhmut look eerily reminiscent of the iconic pictures of Flanders mud, trenches and shattered trees during World War 1. Ukrainian doctors are becoming expert in treating trench foot.
Over the past decade Venezuela has suffered from dysfunctional domestic policies and Donald Trump’s sanctions. Around a quarter of the population has emigrated and GDP has dropped by 70%. On Saturday, the Biden administration announced a significant foreign policy shift, eased one sanction at least, and granted Chevron a licence to resume exporting Venezuelan oil to the US. The world’s search for alternatives to Russian oil leads inevitably to Venezuela, estimated to have 20% of global reserves. The Economist reports that Emmanuel Macron had a short side-bar meeting with Nicolás Maduro at Cop 27. Macron called Maduro ‘Mr President’, even though somebody else in Venezuela claims that title. The search for oil is a pragmatic one.
Oil prices are lower again today in the wake over protests over China’s zero Covid policy. The weak Chinese economy is hurting the demand for oil. China has limited vaccination and has vaccinated against a strain of Covid that doesn’t exist any more. A European cap on oil prices, due this week, is looking, for now at least, to be one of those bolted stable doors, particularly when benchmarked against deeply discounted Russian oil prices.
Tuesday 29th November
Ukrainians suffering day and night bombardment might be forgiven for expressing scepticism about the oft repeated claim that Russia is running low on munitions. At least two recent clues do, however, point in that direction. The UK’s Ministry of Defence has stated that Russia is removing the nuclear warheads of some of its cruise missiles before firing them at Kyiv and other Ukrainian targets. When the missile lands their won’t be much of an explosion apart from the ignition of unspent fuel. There will still be the release of a ‘lot of kinetic energy’ and, presumably, threats to life and property. The MoD cites images released by Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in support of its claims.
OSINT yesterday released images and details of a Russian SU-34 bomber, recently downed over Ukraine. The actual aircraft was identified and accompanying pictures were also released showing details of its previous assignment in Syria. The significance of the loss of this aeroplane is that it is modern and is supposed to carry ‘stand-off munitions’ that enable it to avoid incoming enemy fire. It’s bombs and can be safely dispatched far enough away from enemy lines, probably not even over Ukraine. It appears that this particular bomber was only carrying dumb munitions - perhaps they’ve run out of the smart stuff. That meant it had to get too close to Ukrainian defence forces and was, as a result, shot down. Either the pilot or his bombs were, suggested analysts, dumb.
The Pope yesterday weighed in with some bizarre suggestions about who is committing atrocities in Ukraine. While the perpetrators are ‘of Russia’ they are ‘not of the Russian tradition’ as they come, suggested His Holiness, from ethnic minorities such as Chechens and Buryats. He could have said, but didn’t, that many (by no means all) of the atrocities have been associated with Muslims and Buddhists rather than (Orthodox) Christians. Social media was, of course, quick to interpret his remarks in this way, even suggesting he would have been more honest to say ‘infidels’.
Wednesday 30th November
Comparisons with the First World War grow daily with the battle for Bakhmut. But with a modern twist. CNN reports today directly from the Ukraine front line, describing hi-tech equipment and ‘bookish’ drone operators directing artillery fire - weapons can be recently sourced NATO kit or ancient Soviet-era munitions. The young men sitting at laptop screens describe waves of Russian infantry appearing on the horizon only to be replaced after being mown down. The Ukraine forces simply phone in, or text message, target coordinates to their front-line counterparts.
The Ukrainian President and several military analysts have stated that the Russians are ‘planning something big’ towards the Southern end of the front. Increased preparations have been spotted at Russian air bases, along with higher volume of mobile communications, leading some to conclude that a major air-based assault could be imminent.
Politico today reports the words of the German Justice Minister German Marco Buschmann who ‘acknowledged that Germany bears responsibility for the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine because it backed the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.’ The suggestion is that if Germany had not increased its economic - energy - links after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin might have thought twice about further aggression. Chancellor Scholz has previously argued exactly the opposite. Other analysts note Germany’s closing of its airspace at the start of the year, just before the war, to any Western aircraft thought to be carrying military help for Ukraine.
Al-Jazeera today reports on EU fury at the way ‘Joe Biden has suckered Europe’ during the last nine months. ‘With a new type of cold war emerging between Moscow and Washington, the continent has been left in the cold, literally and figuratively.’ European unity has been noticeable by its absence. France and Germany are ‘furious at the Biden administration’s manipulative use of the Russia scare to advance America’s interest at the expense of their own.’
Thursday 1st December
America is planning a big expansion of its training program for Ukrainian soldiers. According to CNN, a US base in Grafenwoehr, Germany, will be home to 2,500 Ukrainians for a significantly upgraded training regime. As well mentoring larger numbers than before, the Americans are said to be planning much more extensive tactical training focused on sophisticated battlefield coordination techniques. A number of commentators have expressed mild surprise, given that the war has settled down into an attritional battle with both sides mostly just shelling each other. Perhaps military planners are thinking about what happens next Spring.
In another sign that nobody expects the war to end any time soon, the Pentagon is reported to have responded to Ukrainian requests and placed large orders for defensive missile systems with Raytheon, makers of the Patriot missile shield.
Russia has 260,000 tonnes of fertiliser stored in ports dotted around Europe. After much sanctions related haggling, 20,000 tonnes of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK) has left on board the MV Greenwich from the southern Dutch port of Terneuzen, destined for Malawi. Al-Jazeera says this is the start of a UN food agency program that ‘will serve to alleviate the humanitarian needs and prevent catastrophic crop loss on the African continent, where it is currently planting season’. The shipment had originally been blocked by Dutch officials who noticed that an individual associated with the fertiliser company is on a list of sanctioned people.
Taras, Stefanie, Lesya and Pravda are three lion cubs, originally from Odessa. After spending the last three weeks in an animal sanctuary in Poland, the cubs have arrived at their new home in Minnesota, reports AP. Private individuals and animal welfare charities organised the airlift.
AP also reports today on recent joint Chinese-Russian strategic bomber patrols in the Western Pacific. Part of the exercise involved Russian aeroplanes landing in China, and Chinese bombers landing in Russia.
Friday 2nd December
Ukraine confirmed yesterday that remnants of 1970s Kh-55 Soviet-era cruise missiles have been found. Al-Jazeera reports that a Ukraine research unit found what was left of the missiles in the western regions of Lviv and Khmelnytskyi. Their nuclear warheads had been removed. Nobody seems to know quite why the Russians are firing missiles without any kind of warhead. They still cause injury and damage when they land but, in the broader context, that doesn’t amount to much. It could be an attempt to confuse Ukraine defence systems. Maybe they are just running low on modern missiles.
The New York Times reports today from Kyiv where residents and business are adapting as far as they can to life with or without power. The National Philharmonic played one night this week on a stage lit by battery-powered lanterns. Elevators in apartment blocks are being stocked with emergency supplies for when the power goes out. In the age of electronic banking, customers have been reassured by their banks banks that their funds are safe during blackouts. Some restaurants have two menus, one for when they can cook food, one for when they cannot.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, dealt with the war’s new narrative - Russia is losing militarily and is trying, in response, to eliminate civilian infrastructure - by arguing that Ukraine’s electricity grid is a legitimate target.
A tussle has emerged between the Economist and the FT over the likely duration and depth of Europe’s energy crisis. Columnists at the FT have noticed how German industry in particular has so far managed to use far less gas without much of a hit to output, suggesting big efficiency gains. Similar narratives have been developed around consumer behaviour. The Economist has, by contrast, warned that next winter is likely to be terrible and demand destruction for energy will still not be enough to avoid a crisis given relatively much bigger drops in supply.