A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com
Each Friday I will post the weeks ‘diary’ here. All feedback/comments welcome.
Monday 21st November
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has been shelled again over the past few hours, accompanied by the usual contradictory claims over who did what. Both sides blame the other. The Economist reports this morning that 500 Russian troops occupy the site, some garrisoned in the nearby town Enerhodar. The plant’s six nuclear reactors used to supply 20% of Ukraine’s electricity needs but have been shut down since September, although in different ways. Two reactors are still running but not sufficiently ‘hot’ enough to generate any electricity. Power actually has to be brought in in order to keep key systems operating.
The Russians originally wanted to steal the plant’s electricity output via a new connection to the Crimean grid. Reports from Enerhodar hint that the Russians now think the town could be next to fall to Ukraine’s advance. Looting has become widespread and soldiers have started wearing civilian clothing - echoes of the withdrawal from Kherson. Ukrainian artillery units receive reports from Enerhodar partisans about the location of Russian troops and military hardware.
What happens next is unclear. CNN this morning quotes the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Rafael Grossi, said whoever was responsible for the attacks was “playing with fire,” reiterating a warning he made in September.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence this morning focused its daily briefing on artillery duels in and around Svatove in North Eastern Ukraine. The front lines haven’t really shifted since the liberation of Kherson with many analysts focused on how many artillery shells - and other munitions - each side has left. Stalin famously said, ‘quantity has a quality of its own’. Previous MoD briefings have echoed remarks made by several defence officials to the effect that the Russians are running ‘low’ on missiles and other vital pieces of kit. With hundreds of attacks on Ukrainian power plants now a daily occurrence, where are these bombs, shells and missiles coming from? Were those briefings simply wrong? Or are the Russians effectively re-supplying themselves from their own manufacturers and from Iran and N. Korea? ‘All of the above’ seems to be the answer.
Tuesday 22nd November
Just over two months ago, the EU suspended its traveller-friendly visa arrangements with Russia. Despite an airline ban it had become obvious that plenty of Russian tourists were finding their way to their favourite European destinations, if not their villas on the Riviera or Costas. Anyone reading the headlines at the time might have thought that Russians were being banned from taking European holidays. It turns out that they are still arriving in at least parts of the EU in ever greater numbers. That travel ‘ban’ turned out to be an increase in the visa fee from €35 to €80 and a need to ‘produce additional documentation’ during the application process. Bloomberg reports today that visitor numbers to Spain from Russia have risen to 108,862 so far this year, a tripling from the equivalent period last year.
Ukraine yesterday remembered the ninth anniversary of the Maidan protests - sometimes described as a revolution - against a corrupt government that had suspended an agreement that would have put the country on a path to EU membership. It is perhaps the only time people have died in a quest to join the EU. Many of today’s U.K. newspapers contain the words,”British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has flatly rejected calls for closer ties with the EU”.
Israeli media today report the words of the National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata during a presentation in Bahrain. Hulata hinted that if Iran starts supplying ballistic missiles to Russia, Israel will start sending precision munitions to Ukraine. Some analysts think that ship has sailed: the missiles have already been delivered along with thousands of drones. And more are on their way. In addition, CNN reports this morning that Iran is transferring attack drone manufacturing capabilities to Russia.
The most high-profile border wall in the world may be the unfinished one between the US and Mexico. A new, perhaps even more significant one, will be built between Europe and Russia. The Finnish Border Guard has announced it will spend €139 million erected a fence along it’s border with Russia.
Wednesday 23rd November
According to The Economist, at least 500 journalists have left Russia since the start of the war. A ‘virtual resistance’ has sprung up with this cohort of scribes scattered across several countries, daily ‘lobbing explosive stories’ towards the Kremlin. All tools of modern media are deployed. Russian citizens were not big users of virtual private networks (VPNs) before the war but now they have more, per capita, than any other country in the world. That means an ongoing war between censors and people, mostly under 40, who look abroad for online news.
Your correspondent has previously reported the astonishing amount of ‘open source intelligence’ available to those who want to do things like count the number of Russian tank losses. Meduza, one of the new Russian media-in-exile organisations, has used similar open source methods to count the number of new Russian conscripts. It reckons the number is nearer half a million rather than the 300,000 claimed by Putin. According to same source, a lot of the extra recruits are ex-convicts now operating within the mercenary Wagner group.
The Pechersk Lavra in Kyiv is the oldest monastery in Ukraine and is the HQ of the Moscow-linked Christian Orthodox Church. It’s a UNESCO world heritage site. Yesterday it was raided by security forces that suspect it is a base of operations for Russian intelligence. Two other monasteries in Ukraine were also searched. The Russian Orthodox Church protested what it described as ‘intimidation’.
Pranksters yesterday managed to put a telephone call into Poland’s President in the wake of last week’s accidental missile strikes. Someone claiming to be President Emmanuel Macron was put through to Andrzej Duda and during the ensuing conversation the joker was ‘given sensitive information’. It’s not the first time the Polish President has been duped in this way. The previous occasion involved someone claiming to be the Secretary General of the United Nations.
Thursday 24th November
Estonia is to begin building a network of bomb shelters in response to growing concerns that a Russian attack could happen at any time. Bloomberg today reports that officials are looking at a warren of tunnels underneath a 17th century fort in Narva, close to the Russian border. Public buildings, schools and shopping centres are also in the frame for defensive capabilities and improvements. All this was partly inspired by a recent interior ministry visit to Finland where work has just begun on upgrading a network of 50,000 shelters.
Following yesterday’s non-binding EU Parliament resolution designating Russia a terrorist state, a cyber attack has disrupted the legislature’s website. Politico quotes a Greek MEP who blames Russian hacking group Killnet for ‘the most sophisticated attack we have ever seen’.
Russian nightly news programs and chat shows are not for the faint hearted. They have gradually shifted the narrative since the start of the war. Originally, the special operation, likely to last three or four days, was to protect Russian speaking Ukrainians from Nazis. Today, the airwaves are full of threats to the existence of Russia and how the war is a total one with NATO. Commentators regularly exhort Putin to deploy nuclear weapons with one prominent chat show host, Vladimir Solovyov, regularly asking ‘what is the point of Russia’s nuclear stockpile if we don’t use it once in a while?’
Yesterday, Andrey Lugovy, a State Duma deputy, ex-KGB bodyguard, made personal threats, on state TV, against Vladimir Zelensky, promising to ‘chase him all over the world if necessary’. The U.K. once tried to extradite Lugovy in connection with the polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in London. The European Court of Human Rights has also fingered Lugovy for Litvinenko’s murder. On a different TV show, BBC’s Newsnight, also yesterday, the Russian ambassador to the U.K. came very close to shrugging when presented with evidence of Russian war crimes. ‘That’s war’, I’m sure I heard him mutter.
Friday 24th November
Qatar is very upset over someone’s attempt to smear Ukrainian visitors to the World Cup. Al-Jazeera reports today about a fake Twitter video that purports to show three drunk Ukrainians being arrested in Doha. The inebriated fans, according to the video, had defaced a poster by painting a Hitler moustache on to La’eeb, the World Cup mascot, and then scribbling a Nazi salute. Ten other posters were alleged to be similarly defaced. Al-Jazeera is convinced it knows who was really behind the video.
Qatari-owned Al-Jazzera takes us through a lengthy deconstruction of the video, pointing out its obvious flaws, including misspellings and use of English that would ‘not have escaped our copy editors’. The news agency draws a direct link between the Tweet and Russia’s justification of the war, namely that Ukraine is run by a ‘Nazi regime’. The finger of blame is also pointed at Twitter itself, with a suggestion that such obvious Russian propaganda would never have escaped pre-Elon Musk standards of content moderation.
Oil prices have been falling recently, with the cost of a barrel of Brent earlier this week sinking to levels last seen in January of this year. The oil market seems, unexpectedly, to have a surplus of supply. Nobody seems quite sure why. The state of the Chinese economy and its battle with Covid is one factor. Another suspect is the prospect of the much discussed oil price cap on Russian oil. This is designed to keep the oil flowing into the global market but at a price a bit below market levels, thus signalling our displeasure without suffering too much inconvenience. The EU is suggesting a cap of $65 per barrel. President Zelensky, who would no doubt prefer a global ban on Russian oil, today suggested a price of $30.
The talks about the oil price cap have been extended, yet again, with some EU countries reported to want to be a bit tougher on Russia. Greece, by contrast, wants a higher price - its shipping industry makes more money when oil cargoes are more valuable.