A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Did China just reveal its imperialist fangs?

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

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Monday April 24th

Did China just make a big strategic error? Over the weekend, the Chinese ambassador to France stated called into question the sovereign status of the ex-Soviet Baltic countries and suggested Crimea is, in fact Russian. Protests have ensued with several Chinese ambassadors being summoned to various foreign ministries. China’s studied ambiguity with respect to the war in Ukraine, its Macron-supported peace initiative and its attempts to split the EU away from US efforts to isolate China all look to be in tatters. This morning, China has removed all transcripts of the the original interview from official websites. If the boot was on the other foot, China would be screaming about ‘interference’ in its internal affairs. Its questioning of the independence of sovereign states and support for Russian revanchist and imperialist ambitions calls into question its oft-repeated claims to be a non-imperialist power

“It is strange to hear an absurd version of the ‘history of Crimea’ from a representative of a country that is scrupulous about its thousand-year history,” was just one of many official comments, this one from an adviser to President Zelenskiy. Even the French have had to express ‘’solidarity’ with all affected countries, pointing out that all relevant borders, including Crimea’s, have been internationally recognised, including by China, since 1991.

Rumours abounded over the weekend on open source military intelligence outlets, all suggesting Ukraine has stepped up probing attacks on Russian forces, including a reported crossing of the Dnipro river and drone attacks on Sevastopol’s naval base. Lots of bloggers were asking the obvious question: ‘is this the start of the counter offensive, or merely diversions to keep the Russians guessing?’ The consensus remains that any Ukrainian push will not get far and the most likely outcome will be the two sides, low on ammunition, eventually coming to the negotiating table, many months hence. The role of the Americans is widely seen as crucial: how much territory will they push Zelenskiy to concede? Your (almost) daily reminder: the consensus hasn’t got much right so far.

Tuesday April 25th

The UK’s Ministry of Defence reports that Russia’s daily casualty rate has dropped off dramatically during April as it winds down its spring offensive and adopts defensive positions ahead of the much anticipated Ukrainian counter attacks. The MoD quotes Ukrainian sources who estimate Russian battlefield losses over the last few weeks to be down by almost one third. This follows exceptionally heavy attrition during the first three months of the year.

Energy prices have beaten a long retreat from their highs reached last summer. Back then, Europe was scrambling to fill storage facilities, ahead of a very uncertain winter, buying up natural gas at almost any price. The contract for next month delivery of gas fell to a shade below €40 per MW this morning, having peaked at €350 last August. A relatively mild winter and conservation measures contributed to that fall and to current storage levels being much higher than usual for the this time of year. This summer should not see the same buying frenzy as last year. Oil prices have not had quite such a wild ride but are down about one third since last year’s peak and are, in dollar terms, roughly where they were five years ago. The energy shock has dissipated and this should, later in the year, contribute to falling overall inflation. 

China has attempted to put some distance between Beijing and the remarks made by its Ambassador to France about the sovereign status of the Baltics and Crimea. The comments by Lu Shaye were not a political declaration but rather “an expression of personal points of view” and shouldn’t be over-interpreted, the Chinese embassy in Paris said in a statement. “China respects the status of the former Soviet republics as sovereign countries after the Soviet Union’s dissolution,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said yesterday at a regular press briefing in Beijing.

Wednesday April 26th

Moscow’s Tass news agency reported this morning that Russian troops have been training their counterparts in Belarus on the use of nuclear warheads for Iskander short-range missiles, consistent with Putin’s earlier threats to station the weapons on the territory of its ally. Bloomberg says the report of “storage and use of tactical special munitions” is a euphemism that Russia frequently uses for tactical nuclear weapons. Bloomberg also notes that such moves are inconsistent with pledges that Putin made to Xi Jingping last month. Russia and China then declared that “all nuclear weapons states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons abroad”.

According to Reuters, three Russian aircraft were intercepted over international airspace over the Baltic Sea. Two Sukhoi Su-27 fighters and an Ilyushin Il-20, a (usually) heavily armoured ground-attack aircraft, were flying without transponder signals according to the German air force.

Al Jazeera today is reporting from Bakhmut, complete with photos of the shattered city which it says is now 80% controlled by Russian forces. The battle for Bakhmut is now 10 months old. At various points in the city the two sides are as little as three metres apart. Al-Jazeera also supplies details about the new Russian T-14 battle tank, apparently in use near the front line but not yet actually featuring in direct combat. British intelligence reckons the T-14 isn’t yet ready for combat operations, describing its rushed deployment as ‘ high risk’. The high-tech tank has a remote controlled turret and has been dogged by production delays during its 11 years of development. 2300 of the T-14s were supposed to have been delivered already, but that target has shifted to 2025. There are ‘probably’ only a few in Ukraine and they are there more for propaganda purposes rather than their military usefulness.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, has been stirring things up at the UN, complaining about the Black Sea grain deal bringing ‘no benefits’ to Russia, a broad hint that Moscow is in no mood to extend the arrangement. He also deflected questions about potential swaps of American prisoners held by Moscow but did complain about Russians held by the US. It’s probably part of the negotiations for precisely such a swap.

Thursday April 27th

Upcoming elections around the world will have outsize influence on Ukraine’s future. Most obviously, the outcome of US Presidential race could be existential for Kyiv. Another election, later this year in Slovakia, could also throw up big problems for Ukraine. Robert Fido, leading in the polls, is a former Prime Minister who is campaigning to end sanctions on Russia and to halt Slovakia’s considerable arms shipments to Ukraine. Slovakia has sent Soviet era aircraft, infantry vehicles and S-300 missile systems. In an interview with Bloomberg Fico declared that he also wants to put an end to arms deliveries from third countries that use Slovakia as a transit country.

According to Bloomberg, only half of Slovakia’s citizens see Russia as the aggressor. It’s worth noting that the Eastern European country is a member of both NATO and the EU. Fico is implacably opposed to Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership, seeing it as a step that would ‘inevitably lead to World War three’. Unsurprisingly, the US Ambassador to Slovakia has urged Fico ‘not to align with Putin’. It seems that Victor Orban, Hungary’s leader, has a new ally.

Russian forces have been positioning ‘sandbag defences’ on the roofs of several of the six reactor buildings at the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia. The UK’s Ministry of Defence sees these ‘fighting positions’ as comprising part of Russia’s preparations for a Ukrainian counter attack. The MoD does not see a wider threat to the facility as the reactors are heavily reinforced. This week saw the anniversary of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.  

Russian forces continue to make progress in Bakhmut while the Ukrainian  army is reported to have advanced along the riverine coast in Kherson. According to Al Jazeera, Russian military bloggers are saying multiple river crossings have been made by Ukraine, ‘using US supplied small boats’. One blogger wrote on his Telegram channel, “Thanks to our stupidity, the enemy has established a stable supply, are accumulating strength, evacuating the wounded, bringing provisions and ammunition.”

Friday April 28th

Russia seems to have decided that the Zaporizhzhia  region is highly likely to come under attack by Ukrainian forces. According to Sky News, a 19-mile stretch of anti-tank defences can be seen from satellite imagery. Also, according to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian troops and armour have been shifted out of Crimea into unknown locations in eastern Ukraine. 

According to numerous analysts, Ukraine’s chances of a major success are not high. It’s also the case that this is Ukraine’s main chance: “We've cleaned out most of the stocks in the West" said Neil Melvin, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute. 

The head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said yesterday that the alliance has delivered 98% of promised combat vehicles. 1550 armoured vehicles and 230 tanks have been shipped to Kyiv. Nine new brigades, comprising 30000-40000 troops, have been trained by various NATO countries

The Economist thinks that there is a risk that Russia could regain air superiority now that Ukraine has more pilots than aircraft. 40% of Ukraine’s fighter planes have been lost, leaving around 80. That’s compared to 500 planes Russia has allocated to the war. So far, this numerical superiority has been effectively countered by Ukrainian ground based air defences. But stocks of surface-to-air missiles are running low. Should the Russians gain any kind of air superiority, the Ukrainian counter offensive over the would be over. The only practical way to counter this risk, says the Economist, is to give Ukraine F-16 aircraft. 

Russia has mounted its first large scale missile attack in almost two months, consistent with the suspicion that it has all but used up its stocks of cruise missiles and is now wholly dependent the production and delivery of new ones. Ukrainian officials have been supplying details about the missiles and drones they have shot down, and the ones that have caused casualties and property damage. There has been no official comment on multiple reports on social media of explosions in Russian-held areas of Ukraine.