A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Monday 12th December
Russia is upping the stakes in the culture war it is now waging against ‘the West’. The overarching theme is that civilisation is doomed, is committing slow suicide, if the West’s ‘values’ are allowed to infect, well, Russia. Specifically, there are now daily attacks on LGBQT+ rights. In an interview broadcast by Russian state media this weekend with Viktor Bout, the convicted arms dealer swapped for WNBA basket ball star Brittney Griner, all of this was explored at length.
The interview was remarkable in a number of respects. The interviewer, Maria Butina, was previously convicted in in 2018 in the US of being ‘an unregistered foreign agent of Russia’, pleaded guilty, and was deported after spending 14 months in prison. Two years later she was elected to the State Duma. Butina stated that Bout was never tried and served his time in solitary confinement ‘solely because he is Russian’. Bout was, in fact, convicted in court in 2011 of conspiracy to kill Americans, various arms trafficking offences, and sentenced to 25 years. Bout described how ‘difficult it is to be a white person in America’ and complained bitterly about the presence of ‘70 different genders - the result of LGBQT+ rights’. CNN reported yesterday about how tough new anti-gay laws passed in Russia at the end of November, signed into law by Putin last week, are forcing same-sex couples to think about emigrating.
Al-Jazeera reports that the body of a 23-year-old Zambian student arrived in Lusaka yesterday. Lemekhani Nyirenda died while fighting for the Russian army. Previously a student of nuclear energy he was convicted in 2020 of drugs related offences and sentenced to nine years in prison. It turns out that stories about convicts signing up for the Russian military are true.
UK power prices for Monday have jumped to record levels according to Bloomberg. It’s the cold snap of course, along with the absence of wind. The UK’s National Grid came very close to a problem on November 28 and is expected to be stressed again this week. The world’s energy markets, upended by the war, remain in turmoil. Oil is falling, now almost 30% below OPEC’s targets while European natural gas prices are once again on the rise. The FT’s reports today about a breakthrough in fusion power looks welcome.
Tuesday 13th December
Germany’s ability to change its mind should be getting more attention. In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised a swift expansion of the defence budget to at least 2% of GDP: a Zeitenwende, or sea change. Reuters reports the government’s Chief Spokesperson, Steffeb Hebestreit stating that the target will be missed both this year and next. He has a ‘cautious expectation’ that it might be met by 2025.
Yesterday, Scholz stated that economic cooperation between Germany and Russia might start as soon as Russia ends its war in Ukraine. He has said previously that the West will not ease sanctions unless Russia withdraws from Ukraine and reaches a peace deal with Kyiv. Bloomberg reported yesterday the remarks of Michael Kretschmer, conservative head of the German state of Saxony, who said that going forever without Russian gas would be “historically ignorant and politically wrong”. Javier Blas of Bloomberg tends to agree: he argues that Ukraine could, post war, insist that any gas going to Europe must go through Ukrainian pipelines, thereby earning much needed fees.
Kyiv is not changing its mind: a 'three step peace plan' was presented by Zelensky to a virtual G7 meeting. Weapons, money and the start of Russian withdrawal by Christmas are his requests.
Bloomberg suggests that the EU’s near-total ban on Russian oil imports is now hitting the country hard. Sanctions on Russian seaborne crude oil came into effect last week and fears that this would send prices sharply upwards proved wide of the mark. Moscow has lost 1.5 million barrels a day of exports and that could rise to 2 million by the end of the month. Brent is down around 10% in the week since sanctions came into effect, currently trading around $79 a barrel. Russian crude is currently fetching around $40 a barrel which analysts reckon is roughly the cost of production. Crucially, sanctions on Russian refined products such as diesel have yet to come into effect. That could spell trouble. But if anybody tells you they know where energy prices are going, call them a ChatBot. European natural gas prices fell on Monday.
Wednesday 14th December
CNN reports that Biden administration is finalising plans to sent Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine. The usual suspects have cried ‘escalation’. According to Al-Jazeera, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a warning not to supply Ukraine with missile defences. Three unnamed Pentagon officials are quoted saying that the plan could be approved on Thursday by the Defence Secretary, Lloyd Austin, before being sent for the President’s signature. Ukraine has been asking for these weapons for some time, particularly when the Russian bombardment of civilian infrastructure began. As soon as approval is granted, Ukrainian soldiers will be trained as a US Army base in Grafenwoehr, Germany.
CNN also reports a bridge essential for resupplying Russian troops in Melitopol has been hit by Ukrainian strikes.
Zelensky addressed the New Zealand Parliament today and stated that ‘174,000 square kilometres of Ukraine are contaminated with mines and unexploded ordnance’. Al-Jazeera notes that is an area roughly the size of Cambodia, Syria or Uruguay.
CBC, the Canadian media outlet, is running a story about 29 Ukrainian refugees building drones in Riga, Latvia. A Ukrainian lawyer, Yulia Zaritskaya, is interviewed on the factory floor, as she assembles the drones which have helped to change the nature of war. Drones are evolving into autonomous weapons, capable of deciding targets on the move, independently of any ground based instructions. Yes, AI has reached drone design.
Zaritskaya’s factory is owned by Atlas Aerospace, whose CEO, Ivan Tolchinsky, thinks that autonomous drones are ‘a game-changer’. Tolchinsky is from Donetsk, has fought in the Israeli army as a sniper, and built his first drone to record his friends on a ski trip to Switzerland. He has supplied kit to many NATO countries but has now switched most of his production line towards supplying Ukraine. As well as a lawyer, the new drone assembly workers include doctors and bakers.
CBC also reports on the mystery of Western components turning up in Iranian made drones, including antennae from a Canadian company. CBC was shown by Ukraine special forces components of downed Iranian drones. Those drones are pretty dumb - they use pre-programmed GPS coordinates and do not use AI. When contacted, the Canadian company, whose name is on some of the components, could not say how its parts ended up, via Iran, being used to attack Ukrainian.
Thursday 15th December
Moscow has responded angrily to the suggestion that Patriot missile defences are on their way from the US to Ukraine. Al-Jazeera reports that the Kremlin thinks the weapons would be ‘legitimate targets’ in the event of their deployment. Given everything else in Ukraine that the Russians are hitting, an obvious question arises: have the Russians inadvertently admitted the existence of illegitimate targets?
Russia also responded to Zelensky’s demand that they start pulling out of occupied Ukraine by Christmas. Moscow said ‘no chance’. Ukraine must ‘accept loss of territory before any progress can be made’. Unless Zelensky accepts this Russian line, or Russia is forced out of Ukraine completely, this remains a forever war.
Hal Brands, Professor at Johns Hopkins, suggests Putin’s smartest next move would be to exploit this negotiating gap, leaning into war fatigue in the West. It would be good PR if he could portray Zelensky as the one prolonging the war, refusing to conceding territory to Moscow in exchange for peace. Brands thinks France is keen on this kind of a deal, as are some important people in the US. The problem with this theory is that nobody thinks Putin will stick to any agreement he signs and that any peace deal or armistice will just be used to buy time to resupply the Russian army with troops and munitions. Which leads us back to that forever war.
The Washington Post reports that an American was part of this week’s prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia. Suedi Murekezi is a US Air Force veteran who had been ‘helping our people’ according to a Ukrainian government spokesman.
Back in the Summer there was a war of words between Russia and Canada over maintenance of the Nordstream pipeline. Russia claimed that key parts for the pipeline pumps were withheld by Canada and that was the reason why Nordstream would have to stay closed. Given that nobody expects the pipeline to reopen any time soon, or ever, Canada recognised reality and yesterday reinstated the ban on maintenance and supply of pipeline turbines. German engineering giant supplies the kit but it is maintained in Montreal. Bloomberg today reports a conversation between Justin Trudeau’s government and Olaf Scholz, Germany’s Chancellor, discussing Canada’s revoking of the the sanctions waver for the pipeline’s parts. The original (serviced) turbine was never delivered and the pipeline itself blown up.
Friday 16th December
There seems to be an almost perfect correlation between the appearance of headlines ‘Russia running out of missiles and artillery shells’ and, a few hours later, ‘Russia fires latest barrage of missiles and drones against Ukrainian civilian targets’. Al-Jazeera reports the morning that Kharkiv has been badly hit in the last few hours. ‘Russian missile strikes caused colossal damage to infrastructure in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv and mainly affected the energy system’.
There has been much speculation in recent days about a possible Russian offensive in the New Year, with some analysts suggesting that Belorusian forces could finally get involved. Moscow has just announced that Putin will go to Belarus on Monday for talks with Alexander Lukashenko. Russia’s defence minister has just concluded his visit to Minsk, the Belorusian capital. Belarus has repeatedly said it will not get involved in the fighting.
That speculation about a renewed attempt by Russia to retake most or all of Ukraine, including the capital, has largely been fuelled by interviews given by Zelensky and his top generals with The Economist. More details about the fighting in Bakhmut emerged in those interviews. Russian tactics are better, more coordinated, using frontline Wagner mercenaries backed up by Chechens. Russia appears not to have a strategic interest in Bakhmut but is seeking merely to pin down large numbers of Ukrainian forces in a defensive posture. That way, they can’t be used elsewhere. Ukraine’s generals seem to have no doubt that Putin is planning another attempt to take Kyiv. Ukraine does not believe that the Russian mistakes, the poor performance of its military, will be repeated during the next offensive, whenever it arrives.
The Ukrainian generals are asking for equipment, says The Economist, that amounts to more than most European countries possess for their own armies.