A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Suddenly, all at once....

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

So much happened this week, it’ s hard to summarise. Over the many months doing this daily email I’ve learned a lot about reliable and unreliable news sources. Nobody has a complete narrative about what is going on, but some journalists work harder than others, some are just better plugged in to old and new information sources. One of the many things new about the Ukraine war is the use of technology, both on and off the battlefield. ‘Open source intelligence’, (OSINT), supplies both deep insight and misinformation.

Ukraine has begun its counter offensive but has done a good job of keeping everyone guessing. Putin says Kyiv has committed its reserves but I have many doubts about that, not least because Putin said it. Three main points of Ukrainian attack have been observed, using front line sources, OSINT and official news channels. It’s very early days so nobody should draw any conclusions from pictures of Leopard tanks minus their tracks or Moscow press releases showing grainy images of what they claim are exploding Western tanks but are, in fact, tractors.

Some success around the shattered city of Bakhmut has been achieved by Ukraine. Reports from the other two main points of attack suggest only the early ebb and flow around massively defended areas that one would have expected. Few seasoned observers think that a major breakthrough is imminent but nobody is confident in their predictions.

The act of 'ecocide’ that was the blowing of the dam was an act of desperation by Moscow. Initially, we were baffled as to why Russia would do this. The costs: flooding territory occupied by Russia, having to abandon some defensive positions, risking the cooling of nuclear facilities, threatening Crimean water supplies (perhaps making it more difficult to hold on to), and a humanitarian disaster. All this was a tactic, not a strategy. The aim was purely short-term: to slow the Ukrainian offensive, keep the conflict frozen until Trump retakes the White House. If there is a strategy, that, I believe, is it.

On the day that Trump was indicted on 37 criminal counts, Moscow news programs played pictures of him, laughing about the idea that the former President illegally retained top secret military intelligence. “We have already seen all the documents”, giggled many Russian commentators. Those same talking heads regularly call for genocide against the Ukrainian people and for nuclear attacks on London Washington DC, Berlin and elsewhere. Don’t read Julia Davies’s translations of Moscow news programs, available on U-Tube, if you want to sleep at night.

Monday June 5th

The military historian Max Hastings is one of the many voices seeking to downplay expectations about the likely success rate of Ukraine’s counter offensive - which may, or may not, have started. Hastings notes the aspects of the 1930s Spanish civil war that have echoes in today’s conflict. Elements of a proxy fight between several nations are clearly present in both wars. Western countries feared escalation of the Spanish war more than anything, more than any distaste for fascism. Just as with China and the ‘Global South’ today, large parts of the world either stayed neutral or were lukewarm in their support for either side. American catholics in the 1930s lobbied the White House with a million telegrams expressing support for Franco. In the UK, The Mail and Express newspapers were also steadfast in their allegiance to the dictator. 

Today, Putin is betting that US Republicans will tire of the war sooner or later. Failure to support Franco’s opponents led to him surviving until the mid 1970s. Writing for Bloomberg, Hastings argues Putin aims to rely on Western boredom, achieve complete absorption of 20% of Ukraine, declare victory and then enjoy Franco-style longevity.