A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Jan 3rd
The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, yesterday stated that 40 percent of territory occupied by Russia since the invasion has been taken back. In his review of 2022 the General also said 28 percent of land occupied since 2014 has been retaken. General Zaluzhny said the current frontline is 1500 km long. That’s roughly twice the length of the Western Front during World War One. 17 European countries have now provided training for Ukrainian soldiers.
While there is fighting all along the frontline, it remains most intense around Bakhmut. Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, seem intent on capturing the shattered town. According to the Ukrainian army spokesperson in the region, Russia fired 224 times in Bakhmut’s direction over the past day. That includes 34 firefights and one air strike. That same spokesperson said that Russian shelling of the frontline has now fallen to 20,000 shells a day from 60,000. He suggested that this is the result of stocks of artillery shells running low and is consistent with a statement by President Zelensky predicting that Russian attacks will now consist mostly of Iranian-made drones.
According to Al-Jazeera, Germany’s defence minister is in hot water following a video address that spoke about Ukraine and was filmed against a background of noisy Berlin New Year celebrations. Critics have labelled the address as ‘inappropriate and tone deaf’. Not for the first time, opposition politicians are calling for Christine Lambrecht’s resignation. Markus Soder, leader of the CSU, has said, “…anyone who can’t even manage to order ammunition and struggles to buy some American fighter jets is simply not up to the office.” Lambrecht seems to be the target for those who see Germany’s response to the war in Ukraine as ‘sluggish’.
Zelensky isn’t the only leader asking for more help from NATO. Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti has asked for a bigger NATO peacekeeping force to be sent to his country. “A massive bolstering of NATO troops and military equipment in our country would improve security and peace in Kosovo and the entire West-Balkan region,” Kurti said in an interview with German newspaper WELT. Tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have been building in recent weeks.
Jan 4th
European natural gas prices fell again yesterday as warmer weather persists across the continent. Temperatures reached record levels in Berlin on New Year’s Day, in Poland and in the Czech Republic. French temperatures at the turn of the year were at their highest for 25 years. Ski resorts across the Alps are having to manage with artificial snow. Some are closing.
Bloomberg’s weather models predict near-record production of wind power today. Even solar is making a decent contribution to power generation.
Gas price are now below where they were at the start of the war, although they remain between 4-5 times the level seen two years ago. At around €68 per megawatt hour (this morning at least) they are well below the peak of €350 reached in August when storage tanks were being refilled almost at any price. If anybody understands the links between wholesale and household prices for energy please let me know.
Demand for gas is lower than expected because of the weather but also because of the economic slowdown. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, expects half of the EU to be in recession in 2023. Old-fashioned economics tells us when the price of something rises, demand falls. The stats for lower energy usage across Europe are extraordinary. Putin may have weaponised energy supply but lower demand pattern has meant most of the dire predictions - including power blackouts - have, so far, failed to materialise.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat announced on Tuesday that all the drones launched by Russia on Dec 31 and Jan 1 were shot down, the first time a 100% hit rate has been achieved. Previously, Ukraine has claimed a 70% attrition rate. The Iranian-made drones have been nicknamed ‘flying mopeds’, because of their slow speeds and it is clear that the Ukrainians are getting much better at shooting them down. The NewYork Times reports that twenty were shot down over Kyiv alone on Monday.
The NYT also reports on the growing influence of Russian military bloggers who have been emboldened in their criticisms of the war effort by the attack - presumably by Ukraine - on Makiva, where many Russian soldiers died. Attacks on Putin are still rare with the bloggers ire directed at army commanders for failing to follow basic procedures. Ukraine was apparently able to pinpoint the attack because Russian soldiers were using cell phones to communicate with each other and to call home.
Jan 5th
France and the US yesterday said that new kit is on the way to Ukraine. Bloomberg reports a conversation between Presidents Macron and Zelensky, with France promising delivery of armoured combat vehicles. Similarly, Joe Biden confirmed that the US may send Bradley fighting vehicles, armoured troop carriers that also carry a 25-millimeter cannon and anti-tank missiles. The French vehicles, AMX 10RCs, are mini tanks that run on wheels, not tracks. Macron called them ‘light combat tanks’ in a Tweet yesterday evening. They will be the first Western-made tanks to be sent to Ukraine.
There are calls today for the suspension of Serbia’s application to join the EU following its repeated refusal to join any of the international community’s sanctions on Russia.
RT UK was the British arm of RT, a Russian government funded TV network. It broadcast from Millbank Tower in London from 2014 until 2021. Ofcom, the UK regulator, finally cancelled RT’s licence in March last year. Many mainstream journalists criticised RT’s output, prominent amongst them Oliver Kamm of The Times. He described RT as ‘…a conspiracy of fraudsters in the service of a murderous autocracy’. In 2016, Moscow’s RT editor, Margarita Somonyan, complained about ‘threats to RT UK’s freedom of speech’ from British regulators. More recently she has suggested removing the Russian Constitution’s ban on censorship because freedom of speech will lead to the ‘collapse of Russia’.
Simonyan, now officially sanctioned by the EU as ‘a central figure of Russian Government Propaganda’, yesterday joined the growing chorus of criticism of officials deemed responsible for the mass deaths of Russian soldiers in Makiivka. Simonyan was careful to avoid suggesting any links between military incompetence and Vladimir Putin. At a recent awards ceremony in Moscow, Simonyan was given a special prize by Putin. In her acceptance speech, Simonyan thanked Putin ‘for wasting the cannibals’, a direct reference to the ‘special military operation’. She is on record as saying the only way the war will end is ‘via World War 3’ .
Putin easier this week signed a decree for families of National Guard soldiers killed in service to be paid 5m roubles, roughly £57,000 of $69,000.
Jan 6th
It’s not often that a positive spin is put on news that a country’s GDP has fallen by 30%. Yesterday, Ukraine’s economic ministry tried to do just that, saying 2022’s economic contraction of 30.4% was ‘much better than most experts expected at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, when estimates ranged from 40-50% of decline in GDP and deeper’. It was, unsurprisingly, the Ukrainian economy’s worst performance since gaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Most economist’s say that sanctions rarely work. They are mostly signals of disapproval, have limited economic consequences and do not achieve their stated objectives. CNN reports that parts made by dozens of Western companies have been found inside a single Iranian-made drone shot down in Ukraine. Ukrainian intelligence officers removed 52 components from the Shahed-136 drone and found 40 that were manufactured by 13 American companies and 12 were made in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan and China.
None of the companies involved are thought to be deliberately evading sanctions. Third party resellers and Russian/Iranian front companies are usually responsible and very hard to spot and shut down. The White House has recently set up a task force to try and figure out just how so many US components are ending up in Iranian drones. Iran has been under sanctions for years.
Retired air vice-marshal Sean Bell tells Sky News today that the ongoing battle for Bakhmut is an example of 21st century military doctrine coming up against 20th century tactics. Ukrainians perform surgical strikes using sophisticated weaponry, targeting command centres and logistics bases. Russia carpet bombs everything. Bakhmut has become totemic for both sides, despite having little strategic military value.
The head of the Wagner group of mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has promised Putin that, unlike the regular Russian army, he can take Bakhmut. Having so far failed, Prigozhin has taken to the airwaves blaming everybody but himself. His growing visibility and strident commentary has led prominent Russian bloggers and commentators to suggest the country still has a leader whose name begins with P and ends with N. ‘But it’s not Putin’.