A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Bakhmut holds - just.
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Monday April 3rd
Both sides are, as usual, issuing claims and counterclaims about Bakhmut. Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, boasted overnight that his troops have raised a Russian flag over Bakhmut’s administrative centre, constituting a ‘legal victory’. Military analysts have differing views about how a legal victory differs from the usual kind. Prigozhin has made one or two premature victory calls before.
President Zelensky admitted that fighting is ‘particularly hot’ at the moment. Other Ukrainian officials gave no indication that Bakhmut has fallen, saying that at least 20 Russian attacks have recently been repelled. Al Jazeera quotes a prominent Ukrainian military blogger, with close official connections, who says Russia has made progress, capturing the Azov metal plant. Video has appeared on social media purporting to show Ukrainian missile attacks on the newly occupied plant.
A prominent Russian military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky, was killed in an explosion at a St Petersburg cafe yesterday. Various reports suggest a bomb was contained in a package, perhaps a gift , handed to Tatarsky. Curiously, Prigozhin refused to blame Kyiv while officials in Moscow were quick to do so. Ukrainian officials suggested ‘domestic terrorism’ is breaking out in Russia.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has been looking at Russia’s casualty numbers. According to Russian sources, a lot of the deaths and injuries have been caused by excessive alcohol consumption. A ‘significant minority’ of the 200,000 killed or wounded have been the result of ‘incidents’ following bouts of drinking. The MoD also suggests poor weapon handling skills, traffic accidents and hypothermia have all played a significant role. Heavy alcohol consumption is apparently an acceptable part of military life, including while on combat operations.
Russia is extending its previously announced cuts in oil production. That’s part of the surprise one million barrels per day reduction in output announced by OPEC+ over the weekend. Oil prices have been well below OPEC’s target in recent months and were particularly soft during March’s banking crisis. Price maintenance is the point of a cartel so perhaps we shouldn’t have been that surprised.
Tuesday April 4th
The mystery of who bombed the Wagner-owned cafe in St Petersburg will probably never be solved. We do know that important people in the Kremlin don’t like Yevgeny Prigozhin, cafe owner and head of the Wagner mercenary group, also known as a ‘Private Military Company’ (PMC) in Russia. His latest appearance, tinged in the green glow of a night-vision camera, purportedly in the centre of Bakhmut, saw him declare the city is now in his hands.
Meanwhile, the UK’s Ministry of Defence suggests that Moscow wants to replace Wagner with another PMC, one headed by someone less keen than Prigozhin on personal advancement. PMCs remain in favour at the Kremlin because Russian society doesn’t seem to care about high casualty rates of mercenaries. PMCs also rend to be more efficient than regular conscripted forces. The MoD thinks efforts will now be made to build up alternatives to Wagner.
Aid to Ukraine takes many forms. As well as direct military supplies, various agencies are involved in humanitarian aid. And there is also old-fashioned cash. Ukraine hasn’t managed to squeeze NATO for a membership timetable but it does seem to have achieved a second best offering. The military alliance is reported to be discussing upping its $250m a year aid program to $500m, partly to try and assuage Ukrainian irritation over lack of membership.
Finland will today join NATO. In response, Russia has announced it is strengthening western and north western defences.
The IMF is where the real money is. Yesterday, Ukraine received $2.7 billion from a new IMF program. The cash was announced by Ukraine’s Finance Minister, Sergio Marchenko. This follows last weeks IMF formal approval of a four-year extended arrangement under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of $15.6 billion. In turn, according to CNN, that’s part of IMF assistance that will ultimately total at least $115 billion.
Wednesday April 5th
The war’s front line has been pretty static for some time, notwithstanding constant fighting and mounting casualties on both sides. In this correspondent’s estimation yesterday was the quietest day since the war started for battlefield news-flow. Ukraine shot down a few Iranian drones, the fighting in Bakhmut remains intense and the situation there is ‘difficult’ according to Ukrainian military bloggers. But none of usual news agencies or social media channels are carrying much military news.
We might be tempted to describe the situation as eerily calm. That’s a relative term, not really applicable to anyone still being shelled by Russian artillery. We might also ask, is this merely a lull in the intensity of the fighting before the Ukrainian counter offensive starts? Speculation is rife that it is imminent.
Sky News this morning reports the words of Serhiy Zgurets, director of the publication Defense Express and regular author of articles about the Ukraine military. Zgurtes is the latest in a long line of experts and officials who suggest a Ukrainian offensive is just a matter of time. Ambassador Julianne Smith, the US Permanent Representative to NATO, this week said the same thing.
An unnamed U.S. defence official briefed the New York Times yesterday regarding the latest $2.5 billion military aid package for Ukraine. ‘The front lines are relatively static at the moment’, said the official, adding that the latest weapons to be sent are aimed at ‘changing that dynamic’. Some of the new weapons on their way to Ukraine include anti-drone technology called the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System, an adaptation of an aerial rocket in use since the Korean War. The modification turns a dumb, unguided, missile into a laser-guided precision weapon.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence today reports on Russia’s efforts to issue debt in the currencies of countries it seems to be ‘friendly’. Moscow is going to need lots of deep-pocketed friends in the years ahead, particularly if the war lasts a long time. Its fiscal position is deteriorating rapidly.
Thursday April 6th
Volodymyr Zelenskiy once played a high school history teacher in a TV comedy series called Servant of the People. At the start of the satirical show, Zelensky’s character embarks on a rant about corruption - a speech which is filmed by a student and subsequently goes viral on social media. The teacher’s new-found fame propels him to the Presidency.
Ukraine’s post-war economic chances depend in no small part on the real life fight against corruption. Zelenskiy has already had some success. Many of the oligarchs that dominated Ukraine’s economy have been humbled and seen a large chunk of their assets stripped. Much more needs to be done. The IMF, currently at the start of a probable multi-year disbursement of financial aid, has warned publicly about a “re-entrenchment” of oligarch interests that could threaten economic development and the flow of aid.
In a detailed piece about how corruption held Ukraine’s economy back following its release from the Soviet Union in 1991, Bloomberg cites the fears of the ex-central bank Governor Valeriya Gontareva, now at the LSE. While in office during 2014-17, Gontareva shut more than 80 banks that were making loans to owners and their friends, loans that were never going to be repaid. Gontareva says donors such as the IMF are not worried about the return of the old oligarchs but do have concerns about new ones that could seek to profit from any post-war ‘Marshall plan’ for Ukraine.
Corruption cost Ukraine dearly. In 1991, the economy, measured in terms of per capita GDP, was 50% bigger than Poland’s. Now, it is only one third the size of its neighbour. The journalists Marc Champion and Dayna Krasnolutska acknowledge the progress Ukraine has made but argue that reform of the judiciary and the tax system are big outstanding items. Digitalisation of government services is also needed, not least to improve transparency and to head off any re-emergence of bureaucratic corruption. Zelenskiy’s own deputy chief of staff recently resigned and handed in his Chevrolet SUV, a vehicle that had been donated for use at the front line.
Friday April 7th
Russian forces have begun to make progress in the battle for Bakhmut. After a period of fierce fighting but with little gained, the regular army and the mercenary group Wagner have combined to make new advances. Indeed, the UK’s Ministry of Defence suggests that the Kremlin’s two military groups have suspended their feud in order to take Bakhmut. The centre of the city seems to be in Russian control and their forces have reached the West Bank of the Bakhmutka river. Ukrainian supply lines into the city are now under severe threat. Al Jazeera quotes Russian military bloggers who claim Bakhmut’s main railway station has fallen to Wagner forces.
European division over China is on display during Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Beijing. The Presidents of France and the EU have very different views: Macron wants close ties with China and is resisting von der Leyen’s push for American-style disengagement. Xi Jingping gave Macron the red carpet treatment and did his best to ignore, if not snub, von de Leyen.
Chinese state media heaped praise on the Sino-French relationship and denounced von der Leyen as an American puppet. Politico quotes Chinese social media accounts with close ties to the country’s defence ministry: “Von der Leyen, a well-known pro-U.S. personality, selling out Europe to profit the U.S., who spares no effort in pushing Europe into confronting Russia. She made it to China only by sticking with Macron.” Macron seems to think he can persuade China to prevail on Russia to end the war. It was his decision to bring von der Leyen in an apparent effort to put EU unity on display, something which seems to have badly backfired.
Roman Abramovich’s ownership of Chelsea football club was brought to an abrupt end by Russia’s invasion. The £2.34 billion proceeds from the sale have been earmarked for aid for Ukraine but seem to be trapped in British government bureaucracy. The Foreign Office refused to comment on a Bloomberg report that red tape has meant the funds are frozen.