A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Bakhmut holds! And then some!
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Tuesday May 9th
European natural gas prices are now around a tenth of the level they reached last summer. That’s still around twice the long term average but low enough to prompt some of us to wonder why our domestic bills have fallen 0%. Few analysts forecast the fall in prices. It was a milder than usual winter and demand for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) remained subdued as Chinese industry struggled to recover from pandemic restrictions. It will come as a surprise to many but Russian natural gas, unlike crude oil, is not subject to sanctions. Russian gas was cut off by the Russians, not by sanctions. We are still importing a small amount of Russian LNG cargoes.
The spike in prices last August was caused by a mad scramble to fill European storage facilities. Those gas tanks ended the recent winter relatively full. According to Bloomberg, 35 billion cubic metres of gas injections are needed to get to 90% of storage capacity before next October. That’s half the amount of gas that was needed last summer and less than any pre-winter injections over the last decade. Plenty of warnings abound for next winter: the weather and Chinese demand for LNG remain the biggest concerns. More optimistic are some economists who point to old fashioned consequences of higher prices: people consume less and switch into alternatives.
The Ukrainian defence minister has joined the expectations management process surrounding the upcoming counter offensive. Oleksii Reznikov warned about ‘emotional disappointment’ if anyone is expecting too much. President Zelenskiy has repeated the mantra that the offensive is ‘imminent’ but also mentioned ‘June’ as well as ‘May’ as possible start dates.
Yesterday marked the anniversary of the end of WW2, something celebrated today in Russia. Moscow will have the usual big parade but at least 21 other cities have cancelled ‘Victory Day’ celebrations, largely because of concerns that military parties make for easy targets. Ukraine also used to align with Moscow but has now switched to the actual day the war ended and commemorates May 8th.
Wednesday May 10th
The expectations management process continues apace. Writing in a Bloomberg opinion column, Andreas Kluth warns us that Ukraine’s imminent counter offensive is most unlikely to produce results similar to the last one. Kluth reminds us that Russia hasn’t just been digging trenches and creating massive anti-tank defence lines. Moscow has been “ethnically cleansing” the occupied regions. “They’ve murdered, raped, tortured, jailed and otherwise suppressed those Ukrainians showing resistance, while browbeating the rest into getting Russian passports, and doing everything to eradicate Ukrainian culture and replace it with an identity defined by Russian propaganda. Putin’s goal is to ensure that Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia — not to mention Crimea — can never become properly Ukrainian again.”
Kluth is one voice out of many warning us that the war will take years to conclude. Yes, it will probably end with negotiations but between now and then lies a very long time, during which we have, says Kluth, to keep supporting Ukraine, consistent with a belief that total victory is possible. Comfortably - but silently - coexisting with that belief should be the acknowledgment that a negotiated settlement is at least equally as likely as a total win.
Moscow’s Victory Day parade was closed to the public, witnessed no aircraft flypast and the only tank on display was a WW2-era T34. Some observers reckoned that the number of soldiers marching in the parade was at its lowest since 2008. The UK’s Ministry of Defence says 8000 troops took part, lower than the Kremlin had promised only a few days ago. Those soldiers were mostly cadets and reservists. The only regular forces were from the Railway divisions and military police.
It may be nothing, but in Putin’s usual tirade against western anti-family globalists, the only bit of Ukraine he mentioned in the speech was the Donbas. “We have repelled international terrorism and … we will defend the residents of Donbas and secure our own safety.” Just what the residents of occupied Zaporizhzhia and Crimea made of this is unclear.
Thursday May 11th
Newsflow from Bakhmut is more confused than ever. Wagner’s boss repeated a threat to pull his mercenaries out unless he gets more ammunition. Separately, evidence emerged yesterday of renewed Wagner attacks on the remaining sliver of Bakhmut still under Ukrainian control. In areas near Bakhmut, a couple of limited Ukrainian counterattacks were observed yesterday. Several Ukrainian reports claimed some Russian units fell back by up to 2 km. The Institute for the Study of War, using geolocated images, suggests ‘limited Ukrainian advances’ were made along a 2.6 km line. The ISW could not independently verify Ukrainian claims that two companies of Russia’s 72nd Motorised Rifle Brigade were destroyed. The ISW does think that elements of the 72nd have been deployed alongside depleted Wagner troops, leading to command and control issues for disparate military groups, all of whom have suffered heavy losses in previous battles.
Are these Ukrainian counter attacks the start of the big offensive? Or just another probing (‘scoping’) operation, designed to confuse the enemy and/or gather intelligence about weaknesses in Russian defences? Zelenskiy again suggested yesterday that Ukraine is still waiting for deliveries of weapons from the West before starting any major operations. Plenty of analysts are drawing lines on maps, trying to guess what happens next, offering unsolicited tactical advice to Ukrainian commanders.
Whenever the counter offensive begins, it won’t have the element of surprise. The ability of Ukraine to conduct ‘combined arms operations’ will be key. The successful integration of artillery, air support, infantry and armour, first seen towards the end of WW1, was noticeable by its absence during Russia’s attempts to take Kyiv early last year. Bloomberg reports the US has been training Ukrainian forces in combined arms techniques, also supplying modern technology that helps in such operations. That technology is rather secret but Germany has joined the US and sent some to Ukraine.
Friday May 12th
President Zelenskiy’s remarks about the necessity for delaying the Ukrainian counter offensive have aroused suspicion in obvious quarters. Mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin yesterday described the suggestion that the Ukrainian army needs more time and weapons before going on the offensive as a ‘misinformation exercise’. Prigozhin also claimed that Russian forces have been pushed back in the fighting for Bakhmut. The Kremlin this morning rejected that suggestion, saying it ‘did not correspond to reality’. Pro-Russian military bloggers say that the Ukrainian attacks on Prigozhin’s flanks amount to the start of the counter offensive.
CNN today quotes a ‘senior US official’ who suggests that Ukraine is merely conducting ‘battlefield shaping operations’, ahead of its main thrust. Such operations have several objectives, including sewing confusion in the enemy’s mind about just where the main attacks will come. Students of the Allied deception measures ahead of D-Day in June 1944 will be familiar with idea.
Author of ‘How to Fight a War’ and Parliamentary candidate for Tunbridge Wells, Mike Martin, describes all of this very well. Any Ukrainian battle plan has to be flexible, at least in the early stages of the counter offensive, with weak Russian points in their defensive line being exploited by probing operations. Ultimately however, the aim must be for Ukraine to head south, splitting the Russian line in two. Isolating Crimea from Russia must be a key objective.
If those attacks on Russia’s Bakhmut flanks amount to anything, a ‘double envelopment’ of Moscow’s forces could result. Russia is trying envelop Bakhmut but could end up caught - encircled - by a classic Ukraine counter manoeuvre.
The UK’s defence Secretary Ben Wallace, said that Storm Shadow cruise missiles are ‘either on their way or in Ukraine’. The air-launched weapons have a range of around 250km and will not be used against Russians in Russia, according to promises made by the Ukrainian government.