A sideways look at Ukraine war news
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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9th January
Russia’s claim of 600 Ukrainian soldiers killed in their barracks has been met with complete denial - ridicule - from Kyiv. Is it possible to assess where the truth lies? Sky News states that Kramatorsk, an army garrison town of long standing, is easy for journalists to get to and the photographs of the site hit by missile are not consistent with mass casualties. Ukrainian military procedure forbids high concentrations of soldiers. CNN has sent reporters to Kramatorsk who found no evidence for the Russian claims. They even went to the city morgue which was relatively empty. Al Jazeera also reports finding ‘no evidence whatsoever’ of large numbers of casualties. Reuters also found no evidence to support the Russian version of events. Several Western news outlets say that the story simply smacks of Russian desperation for a propaganda victory.
The first week of the year hasn’t seen much, if any, movement of the front line. That’s partly to do with the weather. Muddy ground conditions have hindered the movement of heavy equipment. Temperatures this week are forecast to drop, freezing the mud. Both sides are expected to step up their attempts to take new ground. Bakhmut, now almost completely destroyed, remains a key Russian target, and is under more or less constant artillery bombardment. “Bakhmut is holding on despite everything,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in nightly video remarks on Sunday. Kyiv also announced it is sending reinforcements to Bakhmut.
Russian troops and equipment are moving into Belarus. Ukraine’s neighbour is a long-standing ally of Russia but has so far resisted pressure to join the war. Joint Belarus-Russian military exercises are planned for the middle of the month. Ukraine fears that this is a prelude to an attack from Belarus.
The Bosnian Serb leader announced on Sunday an award for Vladimir Putin for his “patriotic concern and love” for the half of Bosnia that is Serb-controlled. Moscow stands accused of stirring unrest in the Balkans, threatened an uneasy peace that has persisted since 1995.
10th January
For the first time in a while, there are reports this morning that Russia has made an advance along a narrow part of the war’s front line. As part of the battle for Bakhmut there has been fierce fighting for a settlement called Soledad, about 10km to the north of the now shattered town. President Zelensky said overnight that ‘no wall is left standing’ in Soledad. The U.K.’s ministry of defence said today that ‘Russian and Wagner forces have made tactical advances in Soledar and are likely in control of the settlement’. The MoD notes that this enables Russia to begin enveloping Bakhmut.
There is also the presence of 200km-long salt mine tunnels which the MoD says run under the district. Both sides are fearful that the other could use those tunnels to infiltrate behind the front line. Fighting is taking place close to the entrances of those mines.
The decision by the US and France to send armoured fighting vehicles has triggered a debate about just what constitutes a tank. That’s part of a bigger discussion about the risks of ‘escalation’. Once upon a time US officials worried about Putin’s reaction to any decision about sending small hand-held missile systems to Ukraine. Who will be the first Western country to send latest generation battle tanks to Ukraine? France thinks is has that honour but plenty of analysts think that anything that has wheels, rather than tracks, can’t be a tank.
Speculation has emerged in recent days that the U.K. is on the verge of sending Challenger tanks. Unofficially, Ukraine isn’t keen, as the British tank has a reputation similar to that of a second hand Range Rover. What Zelensky really wants is the German Leopard tank. On Monday, Germany repeated its usual refrain on sending anything like a latest generation weapon to Ukraine: ‘no chance’. The defence ministry stated that Leopard 2 tanks are not on offer but 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, dating back to 1971, could be taken out of mothballs.
11th January
CNN has managed to interview a Ukrainian soldier fighting on the front line in Soledar. Unnamed, the member of the 46th air mobile brigade reports heavy battles along a constant shifting line. “Positions are being taken and re-taken constantly. What was our house today, becomes Wagner's the next day.” The reference to Wagner, Russia’s semi-autonomous band of mercenaries, is significant. The regular Russian army is involved but is no longer leading any important attacks.
The head of Wagner is said to fancy his chances as Putin’s successor. Allies of Yevgeny Prigozhin have been loudly critical of army commanders, a rare public expression of dissent that has so far been tolerated by Vladimir Putin. He is said to be happy if such talk helps stir ‘patriotic feelings’. Kremlin watchers are keeping a close eye on any emerging signs of a power struggle between Prigozhin and Putin. Rumours persist about the state of the Russian leader’s health.
The battle is a brutal one. That soldier from the 46th brigade also told CNN, “In Soledar, no one counts the dead”.
Around 100 Ukrainian soldiers are heading to Oklahoma for training in the use of the Patriot missile defence system. Fort Sill will be the home of the trainees for several months, such are the complexities of modern defence system. Once in operation, one patriot battery requires around 90 operatives.
Germany may have been stung by widespread criticism of its lack of action after many promises of stepped-up military spending and arms for Ukraine. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock yesterday made a surprise visit to Kharkiv in Eastern Ukraine and promised more weapons and support for Ukraine’s bid to join the EU. No specific mention was made about Leopard 2 tanks - whether or not to supply these to Ukraine has become a measure of Germany’s seriousness about its commitments.
Al-Jazeera reports today that President Zelensky has invited Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar to visit Kyiv.
12th January
“They have taken someone who is competent and replaced him with someone who is incompetent, but who has been there a long time and who has shown that he is loyal”. That’s the withering assessment of Dara Massicot, senior policy researcher at the RAND Corporation in Washington, quoted in a New York Times story about the replacement of Russia’s top army commander in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, with Moscow insider, General Valery Gerasimov.
Nobody seems to know just why Putin has decided to replace someone who has been in charge for only three months and has been widely praised by Russian military bloggers for restoring some semblance of order to the war. There are suggestions of disarray, disconnection and distraction in the Kremlin. One British intelligence assessment suggests that while Surovkin had stabilised the situation, he fell far short of achieving any of Putin’s strategic goals, few of which are achievable under any general.
Putin must be concerned by the increasing prominence of Wagner commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, who seems to be running a parallel war effort alongside a campaign for high political office. Prigozhin is nothing if not publicity hungry, posting photos of himself yesterday on the frontline, claiming that Soledar has been taken, ‘exclusively’ with Wagner forces. He then contradicted himself with, oddly, praise for Ukrainian forces still holding out. The Russian Defence Ministry was quick to contradict Prigozhin, stating that regular Russian forces are also involved in the fight for Soledar.
There is now open speculation about Prigozhin’s political ambitions. The NYT quotes Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, saying that Prigozhin was angling to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a longtime Putin confidant. Prigozhin would be well advised to stay away from tall buildings.
While the fighting for Soledar and Bakhmut gets all of the publicity, Ukraine’s armed forces have made progress elsewhere in Luhansk Oblast, forcing Russia to reinforce defences near Kremina. The UK’s ministry of defence today says units of the 76th Guards Air Landing Division have been shifted from the Kherson frontline to Kremina, in response to Ukrainian advances.
13th January
Most analysts think that both Russia and Ukraine are manoeuvring ahead of imminent Spring offensives. Fresh troops and munitions are of obvious significance but so is the information war. Both sides have overlapping, but sometimes distinctly different objectives. Their respective methods couldn’t be more different.
Russia is puzzling everybody with its attempt to take strategically insignificant Bakhmut via Soledar. Tactics used there seem to amount to sending in ‘bullet catcher’ waves of recent conscripts. These are then followed by better trained and more experienced soldiers, ready to exploit any holes punched in Ukrainian lines. Inevitably, casualties are enormous. Similarly, elite units retreated from Kherson under cover given by expendable conscripts.
Two things appear to be going on. First, ‘any kind of victory’ seems to be the number one Russian objective: regain some territory, even if it is of little military significance. Second, there is a power struggle going on in Moscow. It’s most obvious manifestation is the public battle (only verbal so far) between the Wagner mercenary group and the regular army. The two groups have started issuing contradictory statements about the conduct of the war, pretty much on a daily basis.
Ukrainian tactics are focused on the upcoming Spring offensives. Most importantly, they try, often successfully, to confuse the Russians about just where the attacks will come. Troop manoeuvres, feints and propaganda are all deployed very effectively. The repeated Ukrainian requests for Western latest generation tanks are also part of their Spring planning. During battle, Ukrainian forces have displayed much more tactical flexibility than their Russian counterparts.
One of the unexpected side-effects of the war has been the drawing closer of some of the ex-Soviet Republics. A little while ago, Kazakhstan sparked Russian fury when it erected a ‘Yurt of Invincibility’ in Bucha, the location of some of the worst Russian army atrocities in Ukraine. They have now decided to erect another one in Kyiv. The yurt provides food, shelter, mobile phone charging and a simple place of rest for Ukrainians suffering from the invasion.