A sideways look at Ukraine war news
With a sad metaphor on the state of the UK (right at the end)
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Monday 19th December
One of the many unanticipated consequences of the war has been a mini-revival in long-form investigative journalism. Two examples appeared over the weekend, one in the Washington Post, the other in the New York Times.
The WP investigated the fate of 200th Special Motorised Brigade, an elite Russian combat unit normally deployed in guard duties for Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal stored along the Kola peninsular. WP journalists managed to get hold of internal brigade documents and to interview members of the regiment. The 200th was involved from the start of the war and between February and May went from over 1400 to less than 900 men. The CO was badly wounded - the WP’s trove of internal Russian documents includes his medical records and passport. The journalists even managed to speak to the commander’s wife. The article details the ongoing degradation of an initially well-equipped, professional combat unit. By the end of the summer most of its officers were dead or wounded and 70% of its equipment destroyed or captured.
The NYT runs a more general but related piece, crediting six front-line journalists and around two dozen other contributors. They examine the failures of Russia’s armed forces. Like the WP, it obtained internal Russian documents and data, including battle plans, and has interviewed soldiers and officials, mostly anonymously for obvious reasons. The officials include close confidants of Putin.
The original invasion plans, obtained by the NYT, included instructions to officers to take their dress uniforms and medals in anticipation, within days, of victory parades in Kyiv. More recently, conscripts are told to download, from Wikipedia, instructions on how to handle a gun. The story is one of strategic and tactical blunders, corruption, and a weird mix of Soviet era kit with the latest hi-tech weapons. One key mistake was Russian failure to neutralise the tiny Ukrainian Air Force. The reasons why this happened are astonishing. The whole article - a masterpiece in my opinion - is, like the WP investigation, well worth a read.
Neither newspaper offers an opinion on what might happen next. There are plenty of those kinds of op-eds elsewhere and they all tend to coalesce around one basic idea: the war will not end any time soon. Putin hasn’t won, but neither is he losing. Anyone calling for negotiations, like Henry Kissinger in the Spectator, is immediately denounced by Kyiv as ‘an an appeaser of aggression’.
Tuesday 20th December
Europe’s response to the twin - related - shocks, inflation and energy prices, has varied across countries. Al-Jazeera publishes today a study that investigates which countries have implemented polices that have done relatively well. One major policy difference is between the French decision to limit by law any increase in energy prices, and the German approach which is to give consumers money to cope with uncapped prices. France, as a result, has the lowest inflation in the EU. Germany’s support packages cost it 7.4% of GDP.
Every country is trying to secure energy sources to replace Russian gas imports. Germany has already completed one of five planned floating liquified natural gas (LNG) terminals. LNG has a big future in the EU. Italy’s proximity to Algeria, a major LNG supplier, has given it a head start in the race to find new gas supplies. Overall, France and Spain are judged to have done best in curbing inflation while Italy, Germany and Greece are leading long-term preparations for energy security. The U.K. is ‘struggling’.
Your correspondent is trying out the new GPT3 chatbot and seeing how it compares with Google. The bot answered my question about today’s Security Services Day in Russia much more efficiently - and quickly - than did the traditional search engine. Russia today celebrates the founding on the Cheka, also known as the All-Russian Extraordinary Commission for Combating Counter-Revolution and Sabotage, formed just after the October 2017 Bolshevik revolution. The Cheka was eventually renamed the KGB, which itself became the Federal Security Service (FSB) after the fall of the Soviet Union. It turns out that other countries also celebrate the founding of their security services. The U.K., for instance, marks the founding of MI5 on October 1st. Who knew?
Putin marked Russia’s Security Services Day by ordering the FSB to step up state surveillance of Russian society and the country’s borders. In an admission that things might not be going too well in Ukraine, Putin said ‘The situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is extremely difficult’ and ordered the FSB to ensure the ‘safety’ of people living there.
The Moldovan spy chief, Alexandru Musteata echoed recent Ukraine warnings about a planned 2023 Russian offensive. Reuters reports the Moldovans are convinced that Putin wants to punch a land corridor through Ukraine to the breakaway Moldovan region of Transdniestria.
Wednesday 21st December
Zelensky goes to Washington today to meet Joe Biden for the first time and to address a joint sitting of Congress. While speeches and handshakes may be the only outcome, your correspondent suspects that there will be an announcement of further significant aid, including a gift of the Patriot missile defence system. Ukraine has been asking for these missiles for a long time.
Jill Biden, unlike Joe, has met her counterpart, Olena Zelenska. The two women have teamed up to promote charity and other humanitarian efforts, including getting children suffering with cancer out of Ukraine. CBS news this week reported details of the ‘convoy’ system that gets the kids into appropriate medical care away from the risk of being bombed.
One story involved a child with bone cancer ending up in a Polish facility that is run with considerable help from an American hospital. The journey by train across Ukraine was harrowing, with neither the sick child nor anyone accompanying her knowing where they would end up. CBS records her saying ‘You're on the train hoping for the best, trusting doctors, hoping it will all be fine. But, as you said, you're moving into the unknown. Where will I be tomorrow?’ The child lost a leg but hopes are high for her survival. The American hospital running the Polish facility is named after St Jude, the patron saint of lost causes and hopeless cases. The UN has counted 630 Russian attacks on Ukrainian hospitals and medical facilities.
US politicians yesterday reached a deal on a spending bill that will, if ratified, amount to $1.7 trillion, and is designed to keep the US government open until at least next September. The bill runs to 4,155 pages and includes an additional $40 billion for Ukraine, taking American commitments to over $100 billion. That includes both military, economic and humanitarian assistance. Members of Congress have until the end of the week to read all the small print before a probable pre-Christmas vote.
Following their advance to the banks of the Dnipro river, Ukrainian forces have been constructing defensive positions. During the digging they have discovered an ancient Roman settlement. The well-documented excesses and stupidity displayed by the Roman Empire are often replicated at other times of Imperial decline. The BBC reports a Siberian resident has been jailed for discrediting the Russian Army. His crime was to post on social media details of a weird dream he had about meeting Zelensky.
Thursday 22nd December
The Patriot missile defence system isn’t the only significant piece of military hardware obtained by Ukraine in recent days. President Macron also announced this week more deliveries of the French Crotale (Rattlesnake) system and other arms. Comparing Patriot with Crotale reveals why Zelensky was so keen to get his hands on the American system.
Both are effective against aircraft, helicopters and cruise missiles. But Crotale only works over shorter distances and is limited to one target at a time. Patriot has much more sophisticated radar, works over longer distances and can engage multiple targets. The cost of these systems tends to be a closely guarded secret but apart from the high initial outlay, maintenance and ongoing upgrades come at high prices. In 2015, an upgrade to the Patriot system was announced by the US at a cost of $3.9 billion. In 2019, the United Arab Emirates coughed up roughly $3 billion for a Patriot system. Crotale has been around since the 1970s, Patriot systems first emerged in the 1980s.
Zelensky didn’t get universal applause from Congress. At least two Republicans sat out his standing ovations. Donald Trump Jr led a chorus of right-wing disapproval regarding the Ukrainian President’s lack of collar and tie. Later on Wednesday, Congress failed to pass the broader bill that would have ratified the extra $45 billion for Ukraine, and the Patriots, because of a row about US border security. There is still hope that the bill will get through by the end of the week. Nobody seems to know what will happen if it does not. Another full US government shutdown is one possibility as the bill is about much more than Ukraine.
Zelensky compared the current fight for Bakhmut with the battle of Saratoga, a pivotal victory in 1777 for the Continental Army in its revolutionary war with Britain. The Ukrainian President made a surprise visit to Bakhmut just hours before he headed off to Washington. Saratoga was actually the first major win for the nascent Americans. Crucially, it persuaded the French that Britain could actually lose the war and, therefore, America. France quickly entered the war on the side of the colonists. As Zelensky keeps saying, wining is everything.
Friday 23rd December
“Our goal is not to spin the flywheel of military conflict, but, on the contrary, to end this war.” Putin’s words at a press conference on Thursday were notable in at least two respects. This was the first known occasion when he called it a war rather than a special military operation. Also, by calling it a war he committed an offence under Russian law that is punishable with up to 15 years in jail.
CNN today quotes a St Petersburg local politician who fled Russia due to his antiwar stance. The ex-councillor asked Russian authorities to prosecute Putin for “spreading fake information about the army.” American officials have been quick to point out that the reference to war was probably a slip of the tongue. More importantly, the hint of a desire to negotiate an end to the war runs counter to the zero interest that Putin has shown in negotiations.
South Korea has condemned North Korea for shipping arms to Russia, specifically to the Wagner mercenary group. Both North Korea and Wagner immediately denied any such thing had ever occurred. It’s probably the case that Russia wants none of us to ponder the fact that its only true allies are Iran and North Korea.
Bloomberg reports that further US sanctions are on the way for members of Wagner, 50,000 of whom are now reckoned to be on the ground in Ukraine, 40,000 of whom are ex-convicts.
Max Hastings, a Bloomberg columnist, is always worth a read. Writing about the next phase of the conflict he thinks a new, post-Christmas, Ukrainian offensive is just as likely as a big Russian attack. Hastings notes the almost total failure of Germany to deliver on any of its early promises for military spending and aid. Zelensky got his US missiles but will never get German Leopard tanks. The Ukrainians will have to accept U.K. Challenger tanks, something that it is reluctant to do. The British tanks are difficult to maintain and have a habit of breaking down. A metaphor for the U.K. itself perhaps.