A sideways look at Ukrainian war news
Chris Johns
I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
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Monday February 20th
India media outlet NDTV this morning reports that China has ‘slammed’ American warnings that Beijing is about to send arms to Russia. The US Secretary of State’s weekend remarks about China’s intentions carry echoes of intelligence briefings issued a year ago, just before the war started. Then, the warnings were about an imminent Russian invasion, something that Moscow repeatedly denied until the missiles started hitting Kyiv.
Why would the Americans go public about its fears that China is, effectively, about to enter the war? The question answers itself. The consequences will be profound. America has precious little leverage it can exert on China other than access to technology and US imports of Chinese goods. On tech, a lot of restrictions are already being imposed and there must be an implicit threat that a blanket ban on Chinese access to US know-how is on the way.
Other questions arise: just why is China thinking about doing this? Why now? The most likely answers must focus on the poor performance of the Russian military. China must be worried that its ally is doing so badly that it risks losing, handing Ukraine and its western backers a strategic victory. Having backed Russia with words of support, ‘non-lethal’ aid and a few drones, China now risks being on the end of a losing bet. Its attempts to gain strategic influence in Africa and ‘the global south’ will suffer a potentially serious setback. Placing a losing bet on Putin will not play well domestically either.
If China goes ahead, one obvious consequence will be a prolongation of the conflict. Another will be even more American and European aid for Ukraine. Perhaps Zelensky will get his planes after all. More generally, it really does begin to look like a full-scale return to Cold War conditions, including proxy wars. And the obvious place to look for the next one is in the South China Sea. We should hope that Chinese denials of US intelligence briefings are more believable than Russia’s assurances this time last year.
Tuesday February 21st
China seems to be irritated with the phrase “first there was Ukraine, next there will be Taiwan”. Ahead of a much heralded “Global Security Initiative”, due to be unveiled by Ji Xinping in coming days, the Chinese foreign ministry has been talking up its commitment to peaceful resolution of international disputes. The Initiative includes an open invitation for all countries to sign up. Xi isn’t the only leader planning a big speech. Putin is scheduled to give a big ‘state of the nation’ address imminently.
The G7 will convene an online summit this Friday to mark the war’s first anniversary. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would host President Zelensky at the virtual meeting and pledged an additional $5.5 billion in Japanese aid for Ukraine.
Details about Joe Biden’s trip to Kyiv have been released by the White House. The journey included a 10 hour train ride from Poland to Ukraine. The Kremlin was notified in advance. Biden will also be giving a big speech.
Al Jazeera publishes today an interview with Pavel Felgenhauer, a Russian defence analyst, who believes, like everyone else, that an escalation of the war is either imminent or actually underway. He also thinks the conflict could end this year. He isn’t prepared to say what any resolution will look like. Russia wants to keep existing the Ukrainian territory it holds already, while Kyiv wants it all back, including Crimea. Not much negotiating room for manoeuvre there. That said, noises out of Washington DC, carefully decoded after the usual “any settlement will be up to Ukraine”, suggest that some Americans think Crimea could be offered up to Putin.
Felgenhauer argues that the battlefield remains paramount. Negotiating hands will be strengthened by territorial gains. So escalation is inevitable as is, he thinks, a settlement relatively soon. The scale of the casualties, attrition of materiel, and a gradually deterioration of Russian society and its economy all add up to something big changing this year, He says that could even be regime change if Ukraine takes back a lot more territory.
Wednesday 22nd February
While his boss was making a big speech about how well the war is going, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ex-chef and current head of the Wagner mercenary group was bitterly complaining about how his forces have recently been deprived of ammunition and other supplies. The New York Times reports today that Prigozhin called Russia’s defence minister and its head of the armed forces ‘traitors’. Mr Prigozhin has been leaving voice messages on his Telegram channel that are becoming increasingly shouts and expletive laden.
Last night, Russia’s defence ministry took the unusual step of issuing a formal denial of Prigozhin’s claims. The mercenary leader is reported to have made hundreds of millions of dollars from his activities in recent years and is said to harbour political ambitions. The claims and counter claims could be a sign that shortages of key munitions are finally having an effect.
Putin’s speech has had widespread coverage. The best summation was supplied in an intelligence briefing this morning by the UK’s Ministry of Defence. ‘Putin continues to present a contradictory narrative of existential struggle, while existing that everything in Russia is fine and going to plan. This renders both messages ineffective’.
One of the many slightly bizarre claims made by Putin was that the existence of an ‘Eldelweiss’ award given by Zelensky to members of Ukraine’s army is compelling evidence that Kyiv government is full of ‘neo-Nazis’. Until quite recently, the Russian army also had an award of the same name. As do several other countries,
The Wall Street journal says that Xi Jingping will go to Moscow for a summit with Putin later this year. China’s foreign minister is currently on a trip to Moscow. The WSJ suggests late April or May could be when Xi heads to the Kremlin, perhaps to join in WW2 anniversary celebrations. Unnamed Chinese sources said the trip would be aimed at assisting with peace efforts. Speaking on Russian television last night, Wang Yi described China-Russian relations as ‘rock solid’. It’s almost a year to the day since Putin said Russia and China enjoyed a ‘no-limits’ partnership.
Thursday 24th February
G20 finance ministers are gathering in India ahead of their next meeting. The US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, has just proclaimed the world economy to be in much better shape than anybody expected in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s weaponisation of energy supplies combined with the economic legacy of the pandemic were supposed to have resulted in a global recession by now. For the past three months or so, almost all of the data has surprised economic forecasters, coming in stronger than expected. The crystal ball gazers also didn’t expect natural gas prices to fall 85% from their 2022 highs.
All of which is both welcome and a reminder never to place too much weight on forecasts. Current projections for the future of the war all suggest no end is in sight with most military analysts unable to see anything other than a prolonged stalemate. We can only hope that these forecasts are as accurate most of the others.
Mike Martin is a senior fellow at the Department of War Studies, Kings College, London University. He’s just written a book, ‘How to Fight a War’, which appears to come highly recommended by army reviewers and is due out at the end of next month. He thinks the Russia Spring offensive is currently being fought on three fronts, with the Ukrainians inflicting as many casualties on the enemy as they can while waiting to be re-supplied with Western arms. This, he says, is the established pattern of the war. As soon as next month, or perhaps April, Ukraine will probably launch its own offensive.
Martin argues Ukraine must win this year. 2024 brings too much political risk - particularly the one represented by the US presidential election. Many Republican hopefuls, including Trump himself, are likely to run on isolationist platforms. Ukraine and Joe Biden must be hoping that Trump gets his party’s nomination - most political analysts say Biden will trounce Trump in a straight fight. That, of course, is just another forecast.
Friday 24th February
Der Spiegel reports this morning on a Chinese plan to supply Russia with arms, including 100 kamikaze drones to be sent as early as April. The drones are similar to the ones already supplied to Russia by Iran and are capable of carrying up to 50kg payloads. The German newspaper does not give any details about its sources for this story, and it doesn’t seem, as yet, to be running anywhere else. Most media platforms are carrying pieces reflecting the first anniversary of the war.
If China has gone all in on its support for Russia it is a potential game changer. China can outproduce the west in arms - it is, until recently, where the west has outsourced most of its manufacturing capabilities for many different goods. Sanctions on China would be almost inevitable. Before getting ahead of ourselves we need to see credible confirmation - or otherwise.
China published today a 12-point ‘position paper’ on Ukraine, calling for peace talks. There does not appear to be anything new in the document. Oblique references to ‘expanding military blocs’ (aka NATO) being a source of trouble, appeals to end attacks on civilians and opposition to the use of nuclear weapons, are all previously stated Chinese positions. If the position paper is a restatement of Chinese neutrality, the Der Spiegel story, if confirmed is an emphatic decision about taking sides.
China abstained in a UN vote earlier this morning (European time), calling for a Russian withdrawal. It was a General Assembly Resolution, with 141 votes in favour, 32 abstentions and 7 against.
The U.K. has announced new sanctions on Russia, targeting all components and materials used on the battlefield. Your correspondent is tempted to ask, ‘what took you so long?’. In other news, presumably utterly unconnected, a London law firm accepted a utility bill in the name of mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mother as sufficient evidence to accept the Head of Wagner as a client. The lawyers subsequently acted for him in a libel suit, ultimately dismissed by the High Court, against a journalist.