A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

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Monday 6th March

The source of the aphorism ‘demography is destiny’ is disputed but is sometimes attributed to French philosopher Auguste Comte. Whether or not he said those words, Comte wrote extensively about how population trends can shape a country’s future. Russia’s demographic problems have been around for a long time. If America’s ‘deaths of despair’ are caused by synthetic opioids, old fashioned booze, particularly vodka, has made an even bigger contribution to ill health in Russia.  A falling population portends trouble, as does male life expectancy significantly less than in Bangladesh and similar to that in Haiti.

The Economist newspaper points out that Russia’s long running demographic problems have been made worse by the pandemic and much worse by the war. One extraordinary statistic is the sudden drop in Russia’s population over the past year or so. Thanks mostly to war casualties of up to 200,000 killed or wounded and mass emigration of conscription-age young men, the total population might have fallen by as much as two million. And many of those emigrants are highly educated, skilled workers. Russia’s own statistics agency suggests 10% of tech workers have left. In at least one key sense, Russia is running out of men. Latest data suggest there are 118 adult females for every 100 adult males.

A recent speech made by Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, attracted widespread publicity for its audience reaction. Speaking in India, Lavrov claimed that the war started because Russia was attacked. The gales of laughter from the audience clearly unnerved the diplomat, at least for a second or two. However, relatively few media outlets carried the story of the full contents of Lavrov’s address. He went on to outline the consequences, as he sees them, of Western intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan. For those remarks the audience gave Lavrov loud applause.

Tuesday 7th March

The head of the Wagner mercenary group is playing a peculiar game. His open politicking for high office is usually rumoured to be for a cabinet position, perhaps defence minister. It’s even whispered that he fancies himself as Putin’s successor. If so, his recent social media posts are not going to endear him to many people in the Kremlin. Yevgeny Prigozhin regularly posts on Telegram and his most recent musings have been mildly paranoid attacks on mysterious forces who are withholding the arms necessary for him to take Bakhmut, something he has been trying to do since last August. He has even suggested that he is being set up for failure so that a wider Russian defeat can be be blamed on him. With rumours circulating for weeks of a Ukrainian tactical withdrawal from Bakhmut, it is indeed surprising to see the city’s defenders still holding out.

Bloomberg today reports a change of tone from President Zelensky. In his nightly address he emphasised the defence of Bakhmut rather than hinting about a withdrawal. If nothing else, he keeps military analysts - and the Russians - guessing. If ‘expect the unexpected’ is your motto, Ukraine will now push Wagner forces back from Bakhmut.

US Senator J. D. Vance, author of bestseller ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ and die-hard Trumpist, has joined the chorus of Republican criticism of America’s support for Ukraine. The focus of his attack is the ‘disgraceful’ German government. Vance asks  why ‘American taxpayers subsidise idiotic German energy policy and weak defense policy.’ It’s not clear how America actually funds German energy needs but he does have a point about decades of strategically incompetent energy policies. His language may not be diplomatic but his implied question about German defence spending is also the right one: there is precious little evidence that the year-old, much vaunted, €100 billion boost for the German military is going to materialise. The German Ambassador to the US responded to Vance and said, about that €100 billion, ‘We will spend it but you can’t buy tanks at Costco’. 

Wednesday 8th March

The Secretary General of the UN is in Kyiv today, ostensibly to help broker the next phase of Ukrainian grain shipments from Black Sea Ports. Antonio Guterres will meet Zelensky to discuss the grain deal that was reached last July and extended in November with an expiry deadline of next week. The presumption is that it will be rolled over provided nobody objects. Russia is, however, muttering about ‘obstacles’ that it wants removed before agreeing to any extension. Wheat prices have almost halved since the peak seen last May.

The IMF has taken quite a bit of stick of late, including accusations from conspiracy theorists that it contributed to the downfall of Liz Truss. IMF forecasts that Russia will grow faster in 2023 than will the U.K. or Germany were not well received. Today, Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, told CNN that the economic outlook for Russia beyond 2023 is “quite devastating.” Presumably, that’s because sanctions eventually work. Evidence of that is, so far, noticeable by its absence. CNN quotes Yale Professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld saying that the IMF “has been asleep at the switch” and parroting Russian propaganda.

Sky News today quotes an unnamed security source in a story about Iranian arms shipments to Russia. According to that source, ships laden with 100 million bullets, 300,000 shells and other large quantities of munitions left Iranian ports a few weeks ago, destined for Russia. The Iranians were paid in cash (wire transfers risk tracing and sanctions for the banks involved). The two ships involved were named as the Musa Jalil and the Begey and have around 200 shipping containers on board. 

While it is impossible to know for sure what was in those containers, Sky independently verified the ships movements using satellite tracking technology. They did leave Iran as suggested, made a mysterious stop off the coast of Turkmenistan, then resumed their voyage to the Russian port of Astrakhan. Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K. said he wasn’t surprised to hear about more Iranian arms to Russia but suggested that Iran is ‘on the wrong side of history’. 

Thursday 9th March

After a relatively quiet few weeks, missile attacks resumed on various Ukrainian targets last night. According to an air force report 81 missiles were fired by the Russian military. Six Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were part of the barrage. While 34 cruise missiles and 4 Iranian were claimed to have been intercepted, Ukraine doesn’t have the necessary means to shoot down Kinzhals. Russia must be pretty desperate to hit apartment blocks and knock out power stations for a few hours as it is thought they have only around 70 Kinzhals left.

Russia’s MiG Foxhound D fighter aircraft have been modified to fire AS-24 Killjoy ballistic missiles. According to an intelligence briefing by the UK’s Ministry of Defence, the modifications meant the fighter’s radar had to be removed. Guidance - ‘situational awareness’ - has to be provided by an escorting early warning and control aircraft, the A-50U Mainstay. One of these aircraft was attacked, in Belarus, a day or two ago, by a drone. From an unknown source. The Mainstay is out of action and has been taken to Russia for repairs.

US intelligence chiefs have been briefing a Senate committee about likely Russian intentions in Ukraine. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines doesn’t see Russia doing more than consolidating the territory it already holds - this year at least. To achieve any significant military success, Russia needs to find significant external suppliers of munitions (a not terribly subtle reference to China) and to announce another mass mobilisation. 

China loomed large in the minds of the members of the Senate Intelligence Committee. The ability of China to steal industrial and military secrets is well known. The New York Times has a detailed and fascinating long-form story about how Chinese-Americans have been lured into providing secrets to China. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida thinks he knows one way China spies on he West. He described the video-sharing app TikTok as “one of the most valuable surveillance tools on the planet”.

Friday 10th March

Hungary’s Prime Minister has long been a thorn in the EU’s side, not least because of his cosy relationship with Vladimir Putin. A semi-detached relationship with European democratic norms has  led to rows between Victor Orban and Brussels, with some commentators suggesting that Hungary should be denied EU funds or even be kicked out altogether. Yesterday, Orban hinted that he may have to rethink his relationship with Russia. Bloomberg reports Orban saying it’s in Hungary’s interest to maintain ties to Russia, especially with respect to energy needs, but the EU’s post-war relations with Moscow are unlikely to be rebuilt, forcing Hungary to also adjust. Orban was speaking at an economic forum in Brussels. External observers remain profoundly sceptical about Orban’s intentions, suggesting that he is merely trying to deflect the storm of NATO and EU criticism that he has faced since the war started.

The UK’s Ministry of Defence this morning notes the widening gaps between Russia’s missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. They used to be nightly events, but yesterday’s mass attack was the first since February 16th. The MoD thinks Russia is short of missiles and needs increasing lengths of time to assemble the number of missiles it thinks necessary to overwhelm Ukraine air defences. There may be very few missiles left in stock so attacks can only happen once the weapons are manufactured and delivered in sufficient numbers to launch sites.

The US Institute for the Study of War thinks Wagner may be taking a ‘tactical pause’ in its Bakhmut operations. The suggestion is that reinforcements from regular Russian forces are needed.

A brand new scheme for aid to Ukraine has been devised by Latvia. Cars seized from drunk drivers are being sent to Kyiv. The Latvian government changed the law last year to permit police to seize vehicles whose drivers are three times over the alcohol limit. Last month, the law was extended, now allowing seized cars to join the war effort. The first vehicles destined for Ukraine left Riga in recent days.