A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

Bakhmut holds. By its fingertips.

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

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A shorter week, thanks to the Easter break:

Wednesday 12th April

Yevgeny Prigozhin, boss of the Wagner mercenary group, said overnight that he controls 80% of Bakhmut. While that number cannot be independently verified, there appears to be little doubt that Russian forces have made further gains. Various sources, both official and via social media, suggest the situation is very difficult for Ukraine.

The leaked Pentagon papers, widely described as the worst security breaches since the Snowdon affair, are consistent with widespread rumours that a Ukrainian offensive is near. Other revelations, such as the presence of Western special forces in Ukraine, will not have astonished many seasoned observers. What has surprised is the suggestion that the papers have been circulating in the darker corners of the internet for perhaps three months, before the mainstream media headlines of recent days. 

As always with the secret world, there are many layers to this onion. The latest is that video gamers shared the documents amongst themselves as far back as January. Various sources, including the investigative website Bellingcat, point to servers run by the gaming site Discord. 

Video gamers have long been associated with security leaks. Participants arguing about the technical details of (virtual) military equipment deployed during their games have an astonishing habit of producing classified technical documents to back up claims of authenticity. The leaks a decade ago by Edward Snowden revealed many things, including a National Security Agency Monitoring program that spied on users of Xbox.  

Big question focuses on the extent to which any or all of this is just an exercise in deception. It’s been obvious since before the war started that US intelligence about Russia’s intentions were consistent with deep penetration into at least parts of the Kremlin’s communications infrastructure. America’s precise and wholly accurate public briefings about Putin’s determination to invade Ukraine are evidence enough. The latest security leak suggests Wagner is somehow heavily compromised by the US. Sources in the Kremlin are highly unlikely to confirm that it suits their interests for Putin to believe this.  

Thursday 13th April

Three years ago, Emmanuel Macron described NATO as ‘brain dead’. More recently he has publicly fretted over the possibility that Putin might be ‘humiliated’ in Ukraine. Whether or not such opinions display strategic nous is still debated today. Wags in Ukraine have coined a new verb: ‘To Macron’ is to worry about something but do precisely nothing about it. 

Macron has been at it again, speaking to reporters on the plane journey back to Paris following the French President’s state visit to China. Europe must not become ‘a vassal of the United States’ and has little or no strategic interest in any conflict that might arise over Taiwan. One common but lazy interpretation of all this suggests Macron simply wants to cosy up to both China and Russia and, eventually, restore things to business as usual. That, according to the French, is just a faulty English translation of Macron’s words. A proper reporting of Macron’s vision would see that he recognises the imperative of disengagement but has his own vision about the speed, not the direction, of the journey. 

Whatever about his intentions, his words do have consequences. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida suggests that if Macron speaks for all of Europe, maybe the EU could take over from the US and supply Ukraine with all that it needs.

Ukraine has rejected Russian claims that 80% of Bakhmut has fallen to Moscow’s forces. Meanwhile, further south, the Russian army has been constructing formidable defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. The UK’s Ministry of Defence reports sightings of 120km of newly built defensive fortifications, suggesting the Russians think a Ukrainian attempt to retake Melitopol is likely to be a key goal of the upcoming offensive. As the MoD says, digging trenches is one thing, but also required are men, ammunition and artillery. And command structures that can skilfully coordinate defensive operations

Friday 14th April

The sharp rise in commodity prices, both energy and food, that accompanied the start of the war was a problem for most countries, especially poorer ones. There were predictions not just for food price inflation but also for shortages and even outright famine. Our worst fears have not come to pass. Wheat prices, for example, have almost halved since their 2022 peaks and are back to where they were a couple of years ago. Ukraine has managed to continue exporting, although not without a UN brokered deal with Russia. The latest version of arrangements that permit ships to use Black Sea ports is due to expire in the middle of next month. Russia threatened yesterday to suspend its cooperation unless more of its exports are unsanctioned.

Ever since the trio of British spies Philly, Burgess and Maclean were exposed decades ago, it has become a well-worn trope that US intelligence officials are, let’s say, somewhat wary of the ability of the U.K. security services to keep a secret. Nobody in MI6 is saying it out loud, but some in Vauxhall HQ must be thinking, ‘at least our spies went to a decent university’. The alleged leaker of thousands of pages of Pentagon secrets is a young National Guardsman whose job required only a high school diploma and a driving licence. Nobody should be expressing surprise - or snobbishness - about how low level employees gain access to top secret files. According to Bloomberg, back in 2019 the US National Counterintelligence and Security Centre identified three million people who have access to US classified material. One alternative explanation for the latest sub Le Carre plot line is that at least half the leaks amount to disinformation planted in the files by Ukrainian intelligence. 

On the front line, Russia’s defence ministry claimed that Ukrainian forces inside Bakhmut are now completely cut off. Ukraine denied the claims as did Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. It’s not the first time that Prigozhin and the Kremlin have differed. Probably not the last either.