Are stock markets blowing another bubble? Are the comparisons with the dot.com era real or apparent?
US inflation disappoints & nobody cares! Also: Is the UK really that sick?
Our latest podcast is up!
Everybody in financial markets is starting to ask: is this another bubble, a near quarter century after the dot.com crash? Are those comparisons with 1999/2000 valid or is the AI boom for real? What does AI think of the AI 'bubble'?
Trouble is, bubbles are as forecastable as recessions. Bubble spotters are everywhere right now but usually forecast the end of the (financial) world as regularly as mainstream cultists. True bubbles are usually only seen clearly in the rear view mirror. Or, when bubbles do occur, they often last a lot longer than almost anyone thinks possible. Prior to the last big one, the dot.com boom, prominent financiers lost their jobs before they were proved right.
Apple podcast link here
But we are certainly in frothy markets so don’t be surprised by a sell-off. But don’t be surprised by anything. Trading markets is a mugs game - or a PhD astrophysicists game. Stick to old fashioned investment principles and don’t try to ‘time’ markets.
The UK ends its mild recession but lots of workers are going on the sick - the long term sick. This could be a real problem for growth prospects. Is the UK really that sick. There are competing answers.
The Central Bank of Ireland forecasts a robust Irish economy and muses about workers shifting from building offices to constructing houses. If so, that's good news: there is a shortage of people who know how to build things.
The people of `Ireland have given two fingers to the political establishment. Patronise the electorate at your peril. Could Sinn Fein be the big loser from the referendum debacle? Opinion polls may be very unreliable friends going into the next election.
Another European lurch to the right, this time in Portugal.
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