Blogs, pods & other great stuff: my pick of the past week's news, opinion & analysis from around the world
Chris Johns
None of us has time to read everything great or listen to all the brilliant podcasts that are out there. Jim and I try very hard to absorb as much as we can and then add our own insights via our pods and posts. Given how much we do read and listen to, I thought it might be useful for our readers to be pointed at some of the stuff that we find informative, important and/or fun. Things we might mention on the pods but can only talk about briefly (or at all). Links to and summaries of the original sources can be useful. So here goes (in no particular order of importance). Some of the stuff is behind paywalls - we hope a short summary doesn’t upset the authors (we are publicising your work!). Do let us know what you think - we could include lots more (or less). How often would you like to see this? And so on! Enjoy.
This time around, a short collection of much needed good news. (Maybe I’m clutching at straws)
Something for the planet:
This morning, Bloomberg ran a story about weather forecasts. An extended cold snap for April is, said the story, pushing natural gas prices up. By lunchtime, they were down again. That should remind all of us (including me) that explaining short term movements in prices is something best avoided. Gas prices are now around 90% lower than the peak reached last summer, but are still above where they were a couple of years ago. LNG export capacity is coming back on stream in the US but those European gas prices are now so low that LNG cargoes might go to Asia where prices are higher. So, lots of ifs, buts and maybes about what happens next but the optimist in me focuses on the fact that most experts did not think gas prices would get this low this quickly.
European spot natural gas prices (€/KwHr)
It’s always easy - but a bit of a cheap shot - to poke fun at forecasters (of pretty much anything). But the curse of ‘The Economist Cover Story” is too easy a target (there are many examples). here’s one:
That’s an edition from about 8 months ago, with the learned journal fretting about a European energy crisis likely to hit in the winter that is ending now (or in April, depending on your favourite forecaster). It was a touch of a an economic blooper from a magazine called The Economist. Some economists went back to their basic textbooks and said that substitution and income effects would be powerful forces that would help stave off blackouts and crisis. Economists 1, The Economist 0.
‘Inflation is staying too high” stories are all the rage. Yes, The Economist has a cover about it so I’m taking the other side of the bet. One price rise did prove transitory:
Commodity prices generally are not sending any inflation signals:
Yeah, I know everyone now says wage inflation is the new problem. In a world where rising inequality has caused such political disfunction I can’t say I’m too exercised about that. But I’m not a central banker keen on putting workers back in their box.
An, er, utterly unintended - but very positive - consequence of the recent inflation is that real value of government debt has to a considerable extent been inflated away. Who would have thought that? Has it ever happened before?
China is losing competitiveness. Whether or not you think this is a good thing depends mostly on whether or not you are Chinese. But if you are a smaller Asian country you might be smiling.
Some opinion polling from Boris Johnson’s constituency:
Take a listen to our (sometimes) cheerful and always balanced podcasts: