Central bankers spook the markets - will they cause a crisis? Housing looks very vulnerable. Pensions & old people pulling up ladders. Stellar Irish exports. NHS in 'systemic failure'.
Some surprising forecasts for 2023
Our latest podcast is up!
We take a look at the tough talking central bankers who this week put up interest rates, pretty much everywhere apart from Russia. Despite these hikes being delivered exactly as expected, the accompanying rhetoric spooked stock markets. If the words are followed by deeds, we are all in for a very tough 2023. Further significant rises, if delivered, will be a big mistake. Housing looks very vulnerable now, whatever happens to interest rates.
Happiness data just released has some very interesting and important messages.
Irish trade data strongly suggests that the export machine is still purring smoothly - if not roaring away.
We now see ‘NHS’ and ‘systemic failure’ used in the same sentence. The debate has taken an interesting twist: the focus is not just on extra cash. Structural reform is the new mantra - from surprising sources.
All this and much more in our latest podcast.
William, i specifically mentioned on last pod about young people in Ireland being amongst the least happy in Europe. Housing, nanny state, pensions, inheritance etc. Not sure what more i can say. I have two sons in their 20s and i know exactly what their issues are. But i can assure you they are not stupid enough to fall for populist nonsense and silver bullet solutions and money trees. Thanks for feedback, much appreciated.
Hi Guys, Still find your podcast very interesting and easy to follow along on subjects that sometimes are a bit complex.
However, I think Jim brought up the new Norwegian wealth tax on higher earners and how that doesn't work, resulting in the high net worth individuals fleeing and taking their jobs with them.
Ordinarily I take that news as presented. However I listen to your podcast to try and get more than one point of view - so I was surprised that you went straight down the line that this was simply bad and there was a wealth flight.
It seems you may have committed an error of omission. Yes some have fled - but there was more nuance information behind that.
The increase was just an increase above other tax payers by 1.1% - so can the super rich really not afford just 1.1 more? The group of rich Norwegians who left for Switzerland had a combined fortune of NKr29bn and paid NKr550mn in tax, so an extra NKr5.5mn from that pool.
Also - you failed to mention the other super rich who said they were happy to pay the tax as they felt they got good services in return. A hedge fund manager said: “I pay my tax with pleasure. I personally think I get a lot back for my tax money,”.
People benefit from free education, national infrastructure, free healthcare, subsidised pre-school childcare, robust furlough rules and corporation tax in line with other countries. It means those who enjoy success with this social model must contribute more than others'.
Also - the article pointed out that it was generally 'newly formed businesses' - i.e. startups the owners of which found the tax a challenge because revenues were not yet flowing - so they were cash strapped.
My point (perhaps poorly made) is that taxing the rich may or may not work for Ireland - but just throwing out the comment that it is a bad tax is not good enough - you gave the detraction's but none of the benefits.
Personally I am of the opinion that the worlds super rich all try to pay the least tax possible, that also never seem to have enough wealth, always looking to accumulate more. It is my belief that Musk et-al will eventually have a tax free heaven on Mars to which only those super rick will have access - tax free.
I can't wait to see them go to be honest - the rest of us might actually be better off with a little more levelling of wealth distribution.
All the best with '23, looking forward to more podcasts.
thanks John