Latest OECD forecasts for Ireland, U.K. & the world. Starmer mimics Sunak - both are a disgrace. Brexit is back - but only as one of several deep U.K. problems. Which nobody is going to solve
The Perils of public speaking
Forecasts always need to be taken with a pinch of salt. Nevertheless, they are important signposts, particularly for our near economic future. The best forecasts are often from international organisations such as the IMF and the OECD. This week the latter produced its latest thoughts on the future of the world economy.
Yet, again the differences between the forecast numbers and accompanying narrative surrounding the Irish and U.K. economies couldn’t be starker. Only Russia has a worse outlook than the U.K. relatively speaking at least, few, if any, countries have a better outlook than Ireland. But a big global slowdown, even recession, is the big story for all countries.
A new narrative is emerging about the U.K. First, Brexit is back. Second, while Brexit is bad enough, the structural problems facing the U.K. economy run deep and go back many years. The various factions present in the hopelessly divided Tory Party each represent a block to any policy that might hence solve some or all of these problems. And Keir Starmer knows no economics - and isn’t really interested in the economy - as he reveals his ambition to be a centre-left populist.
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Great stuff, as usual. I wonder if you'd consider doing some pieces on the economics of parts of the world that are important but we might know less about? Maybe India, Australia, some of the very fast growing economies of Africa, Singapore etc, just broaden our terms of reference a bit?
I did try to find it myself to no avail. Anyone have the link to the Janan Ganesh article mentioned at the end of the podcast?