Mortgage rates up in the UK (thanks Liz). Mortgage rates hit 7% in the US. The start of the big housing correction? Another Lehman moment?
https://open.acast.com/public/streams/633b3ddf2ce407001121c7e5/episodes/63410b29215f20001377efd5.mp3
London’s most expensive house is up for sale, revealing surprising connections with China, interest rates and potential property problems everywhere. A particular example of how everything is connected to everything else. In that vein, Larry Summers, ex US Treasury Secretary thinks that now the Tories have come close to blowing up the UK’s financial system, there will be repercussions for the world economy.
Why is Europe up in arms over Germany’s massive fiscal boost?
All this and more in the latest edition of The Other Hand podcast!
Never doubt that you’re being listened to!!
I liked your joint take on the German fiscal expansion & the possibility of the other countries being envious!!
Saudi Arabia and 🇺🇸.... and OPEC’s weird policies - interesting
China are going to beat 🇺🇸 in Wind industry
And of course Ireland will lag well behind😢
Just to add, you’re entirely right to say the risks that cause the economy trouble are the risks we don’t see coming. In the past I’ve worked pulling together an incredible volume of different risk assessment exercises for insurance companies, including plans for what to do if certain risks materialise so that management and regulators are not trying to think on their feet, like they had to when they issued the bank guarantee. It’s the Donald Rumsfeld unknown unknowns that cause the issues. And the reason why many of those risks remain unknown unknowns can be an element of groupthink. Once you pull together these risk assessments for the first time the first thing you do is get the big consultancies involved, who then engage with a benchmarking exercise to see if you’re over or under doing it. So some bright spark conjured up a scenario that could impact (like the LDI issues in the pension industry), senior management probably don’t get it because they have swapped their technical skills for softer skills a long time ago, and when they benchmark with the help of consultants they decide to not include any further consideration of that risk. At least if they’re ever challenged on why they missed that risk, they can say sure the rest of the market missed it too.