I agree AI (not Artificial Insemination Jim 😂) has incredible potential.
Right now, and you'll see this over social media channels such as TikToc, people are sharing its power! However the vast majority is to improve the way people are doing their job now. "Don't spend hours doing this when you can get Al to do it in seconds".
As a software manager, with a team of 20 dev engineers I see how we can use AI to speed up elements of coding work practices & learn new ways of doing things, but I’m sure it will never replace the human side needed to check work, usability testing and most of all future design & elaborate / evolve our work.
And I suspect you’re both keen to keep well away from TikTok but it’s well worth you using it (just for research) on how AI is helping the youth of today. Eye opening! Give it a go I dare you!
On the question of why are we not seeing recession data yet, I think you answered your own question. When looking at the likes of manufacturing output for the eurozone, it has the advantage of being something tangible that’s directly attributable to experience on the ground.
But it’s a look into the past. It takes time for that manufacturing output to be measured, compiled into a stat and released for consumption by users like economists. It was only July 2022 when the ECB raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years. You then run through the lags you alluded to. Interest rates rise, consumer disposable income reduces, the market demand wanes, and only then manufacturing output adjusts to the fallen demand. Manufacturing projects that are underway and fully funded continue until completion but the next manufacturing project or investment doesn’t get the go ahead because of the funding costs, and the effect of manufacturing output is experienced sometime later.
So when you add the lag in compiling all the historic manufacturing output data to the lag for interest rates to work its way to the manufacturing sector output to affect the inputs to that stat, we might be waiting quite a while to see the recession signs in that particular stat. I suspect by the time we see this emerge, we will be in no doubt already that we are in recession, and in fact, we may be in recovery before that stat shows any green shoots.
The problem with the forward looking indicators are they change like the wind and they’re all a bit abstract to the average punter. It’s hard to explain to a commentator on a barstool what an inverted yield curve means for them.
Another great podcast.
I agree AI (not Artificial Insemination Jim 😂) has incredible potential.
Right now, and you'll see this over social media channels such as TikToc, people are sharing its power! However the vast majority is to improve the way people are doing their job now. "Don't spend hours doing this when you can get Al to do it in seconds".
As a software manager, with a team of 20 dev engineers I see how we can use AI to speed up elements of coding work practices & learn new ways of doing things, but I’m sure it will never replace the human side needed to check work, usability testing and most of all future design & elaborate / evolve our work.
Chris I recommend subscribing to https://tldr.tech/ai - a daily update on AI
And I suspect you’re both keen to keep well away from TikTok but it’s well worth you using it (just for research) on how AI is helping the youth of today. Eye opening! Give it a go I dare you!
Great discussion again.
On the question of why are we not seeing recession data yet, I think you answered your own question. When looking at the likes of manufacturing output for the eurozone, it has the advantage of being something tangible that’s directly attributable to experience on the ground.
But it’s a look into the past. It takes time for that manufacturing output to be measured, compiled into a stat and released for consumption by users like economists. It was only July 2022 when the ECB raised interest rates for the first time in 11 years. You then run through the lags you alluded to. Interest rates rise, consumer disposable income reduces, the market demand wanes, and only then manufacturing output adjusts to the fallen demand. Manufacturing projects that are underway and fully funded continue until completion but the next manufacturing project or investment doesn’t get the go ahead because of the funding costs, and the effect of manufacturing output is experienced sometime later.
So when you add the lag in compiling all the historic manufacturing output data to the lag for interest rates to work its way to the manufacturing sector output to affect the inputs to that stat, we might be waiting quite a while to see the recession signs in that particular stat. I suspect by the time we see this emerge, we will be in no doubt already that we are in recession, and in fact, we may be in recovery before that stat shows any green shoots.
The problem with the forward looking indicators are they change like the wind and they’re all a bit abstract to the average punter. It’s hard to explain to a commentator on a barstool what an inverted yield curve means for them.