Jim Power
April 1st has had its fair share of pranks this year ranging from riderless bicycles from Google to the demolition of one of the Poolbeg Chimneys and a consequent 50 per cent reduction in emissions. One headline in the Irish Times struck me as another effort at a prank, but alas no. It was a headline suggesting that ‘Easing of restrictions will help people who have run out of steam, say experts.’ I am not sure what planet the experts making those assertions inhabit. The announcement of the easing of restrictions this week should provoke despair rather than hope.
The harsh reality is that we are now entering the fourth month of Level 5 restrictions, and are about to endure/enjoy the Easter weekend, while being confined to 5 km from home for exercise purposes; no dining of any variety; no sporting activities of any sort, and the prospect of unseasonably cold weather to boot.
The latest roadmap for the easing of restrictions announced by the Government this week aroused in me a feeling of despair rather than hope. The pathway laid out is pretty meagre and doesn’t exactly inspire hope.
On 12th April, people will be allowed to travel within their county, or within 20 km radius of home; two households will be able to meet outside; a phased return of construction will begin; and remaining second-level students will return to school. Then on 19th April, high-performing athletes and senior intercounty GAA training will be allowed. On 26th April, 25 people will be allowed attend funerals; tennis, golf and under-18 training will be allowed; zoos and heritage parks will re-open; and two fully vaccinated people will be allowed meet indoors. Then, consideration will be given to a phased return of non-essential retail; the full re-opening of construction activities; and religious services will start on a staggered basis, whatever that means. Then in June, Hotels, B&Bs and guest houses may be allowed re-open after a review at the end of May. There is no prospect of indoor or outdoor dining for the foreseeable future, and this lack of clarity will just serve to push the owners and workers in such businesses over the edge.
This timetable could not possibly give hope to thinking people. Particularly as the following day, NPHET warned that the country is facing a ‘critical window’ over the next 8 weeks, which could see it either avoid or face a fourth wave of COVID-19. It advises that if people can keep social interaction at current levels until the end of May, the risks would reduce considerably. How many times have we heard that meaningless message over the past year?
The reality of course is that over the past couple of weeks it has become blatantly obvious that social interaction is picking up at a significant pace. We have seen videos of teenagers and older people congregating along the canals in Dublin, and in various parks. A walk through my local park yesterday morning brought back memories of Slane Castle after a Bob Dylan concert back in 1984.
People are just sick and tired of it all and many are effectively throwing in the towel, and it is hard to blame them. Demonising teenagers who are just doing what teenagers do, is way over the top. Indeed, a daily newspaper with a front-page headline and photo of a few Dublin footballers kicking a ball around just demonstrates how far we are descending as a society. The Valley of the Squinting Windows was written by Brinsley MacNamara in 1918, and could well apply to the Ireland of today.
As I have written in this forum before, I believe that the ongoing policy of stringent restrictions and ham-fisted communication, particularly in relation to the vaccine rollout, is driving more and more normally sensible people away from compliance. It looks inevitable that infection numbers will rise again over the coming weeks, and unfortunately our policy makers still do not have a plan B.
The hope of course is that we will be swamped with a flood of vaccines over the coming weeks and that all of those of a certain age will be vaccinated, and that case numbers will be confined to those of an age where the risk of serious illness and hospitalisation is very low.
On the vaccine front, it is very hard to form any idea as to how we are doing, as the communication is still awful. The US and UK dealt very badly with the initial health crisis, but have turned the situation around in dramatic fashion with their handling of the vaccine rollout. Boris Johnson handed control over to Kate Bingham, a venture capitalist, and the results have been spectacular. Indeed, the UK became the first country in the world to approve a COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use in early December, and according to the British Medical Journal, the Department of Health and Social Care reportedly began planning a mass vaccination programme before confirmation of the first infection. Boris has managed to turn around his political fortunes in dramatic fashion, and is definitely on the front foot at the moment.
In the US, President Biden has prioritised the vaccine programme and looks set to achieve spectacular success in his first 100 days in office. Indeed my 32-year-old nephew in California has been contacted to make a vaccination appointment, whereas my neighbour in his early 70s here in Dublin has not heard a word.
It is difficult to have confidence in the system, and the notion that the easing of restrictions announced this week will help people who have run out of steam is fanciful.
While it is tough going for individuals, one really has to spare a thought for business owners who are not getting adequate support in most cases, and who have no clarity on what the coming very important months might bring. A recent report from the EU did not garner much attention to my knowledge, but is incredibly important and worrying in equal measure. Research conducted by the EU Commission suggests that in 2020, Ireland ranked last in the EU for the amount of state aid given to companies expressed as a percentage of GDP. It estimates that Ireland doled out the equivalent of 0.26 per cent of GDP, compared to 7.3 per cent in Spain and 6.4 per cent in France. This is despite the fact that the Oxford Stringency Index shows that Ireland has had amongst the most restrictive regimes in the developed world over the past year. Businesses needs to be given more support and more guidance, or else open up those elements of the economy where risks are relatively low. Accept that nothing in life is risk free.