Ukraine war diary

Perhaps this should now just be a war diary

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

Monday October 9th

The Shahed-136 is an Iranian manufactured one-way attack drone. Components made by several western companies have been found in the debris of downed Shaheds. It’s a highly mobile piece of kit, designed to be fired from the backs of trucks and in batches of five. Large numbers of the drones are used in a single attack with the aim of overwhelming missile defence systems. Western intelligence agencies reckon that Russia has developed its own factories capable of manufacturing copies of the Shahed,  

The UK’s Ministry of Defence notes that Russian ties with Iran continue to deepen. Tehran recently stated that Russia invested nearly $3 billion in various Iranian projects over the last year. Iran has joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and is an invitee to the BRICS grouping. As Russia seeks to evade sanctions, its links with Iran are expected to deepen.  

The American navy’s battle group moving to the Eastern Mediterranean is likely a signal to Iran that any escalation and/or exploitation of its involvement with Hamas and Hezbollah is not without risk.

According to Ukrainian sources, Russia deployed 500 Shaheds in September alone. The total fired last winter was 1000. Fears are growing that Russia’s ability to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is, today, bigger than ever. Ukrainian gas pipelines were damaged over the weekend in Kherson. Ukraine’s energy production facilities survived last winter but have not been fully rebuilt. 

Ukraine’s counteroffensive can accurately be described as making incremental progress. Just as accurately, it is also said to be a stalled counteroffensive. Territory has been regained, but as a percentage of the total occupied by Russia it is minuscule.  Armchair strategists will argue about this forever, but it is possible to argue that Western strategy has contributed to the forever war. Ukrainian requests for arms, particularly of the sophisticated variety, have almost always received a positive response - but only after months of agonising by Washington (in particular). The modern tanks and long range missiles arrive but only after Russia has constructed hundreds of miles of defences. ‘As long as it takes’ sounds warm and fuzzy but, if you think about it, is empty of content. 

Tuesday October 10th

‘A hairball of geopolitical complexity, every bit as bit as intricate as the European alliance tangles in 1914, is now the crucible of Biden’s statecraft’. That’s Andreas Kluth, former editor-in-chief of Handelsblatt,  writing for Bloomberg. He reminds us that Russia has a vested, or at least self-evident, interest in chaos and isn’t averse to widening the conflict. Iran, firmly in the frame as a significant malevolent actor on the Middle-Eastern stage, will be looking to Russia for payback for all the arms that have flowed from Teheran to Moscow. Saudi Arabia is a big player in what happens next with choices to be made about its ongoing rapprochement with Israel and its feuding with Iran. Turkey and Egypt are also players. Most of these countries have at least one thing in common: ambitious, authoritarian leaders.

It’s all very wall throwing the geopolitical ball Joe Biden’s way - it’s an obvious thing to do, given the way the world has been run since 1945. ‘Pax Americana’ has by no means abolished war but it has kept a sort of peace unprecedented in much of human, particularly European, history. The problem is that only a cursory look at the state of Washington DC - the chaos, the dysfunction and the growing isolationism - might lead to the conclusion that Pax Americana is well and truly over. ‘Strong man’, authoritarian leaders are in the ascendant everywhere. Without an equally strong counterweight like an American global policeman, history’s lesson for what happens next is simple.

Meanwhile back in Moscow, sabre rattling in the form of threats to restart nuclear testing is accompanied by more calls on state media for the actual use of nuclear weapons. The head of RT, a major global news network funded by the Kremlin, argued for a detonation of an atomic bomb over Siberia, with the intended aim of encouraging - frightening - the West into ending  support for Ukraine. While detonating nuclear weapons over or on your own territory might seem a little eccentric, it’s not the first time the suggestion has been aired on Russia’s chat shows. RT is also pushing the line that Ukriane has armed Hamas, a suggestion that has been treated with contempt by at least one representative of the Israeli military.

Wednesday October 11th

Russia’s traditional ties to Israel are being strained by Moscow’s new best friend, Iran. Putin has been somewhat restrained in his remarks about the weekend’s atrocities. If the conflagration is to spread, Iran will be at the heart of it. Consideration is being given to sending a second US carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean, mainly to warn Tehran about what might happen next if it gets any more involved. Even if the Iranians do hold back, the US will then have a job on its hands should firm evidence emerge that Tehran was a significant player in last weekend’s atrocities. The Israelis will no doubt exact a price on whoever helped Hamas. The US will, in all likelihood, try to prevent anything resembling war between Israel and Iran. 

Russian State TV has reacted with delight to the Hamas attacks, echoing Putin’s accusation that they were the fault of the U.S. The prospect of a wider Middle Eastern war has being warmly welcomed, not least because Moscow’s propagandists believe it will divert Western attention from Ukraine. 

The former Chief Rabbi for Moscow - forced to flee recently because of his criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - is interviewed in today’s New York Times. He says that Jewish leaders used to feel some warmth for Putin’s previous efforts to preserve the memory of the holocaust. All that began to change as soon as Putin started describing Ukraine’s Jewish President as a Nazi.

Prominent Republicans are urging Joe Biden to divert Ukrainian assistance to Israel. Senator Josh Hawley, for instance, wants all aid to Ukraine stopped and sent to Israel. He is also criticising Biden for the recent cash-for-prisoners swap which saw billions of frozen Iranian dollars released.

Thursday October 12th

Evidence is emerging of new, or adapted, tactics being deployed by the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. At the very least, fighting near Avdiivka in Donetsk oblast, suggests that battlefield lessons have been learned. Reports are conflicting, as they often are from the frontline. Russian sources say that significant progress has been made, while Ukraine says its forces have considerable amounts of armour  - including 34 tanks - and, over the past 24 hours, almost1000 enemy casualties.

The Institute for the Study of War is probably best positioned to assess the various claims, Up to three Russian battalions with tanks and armoured vehicle support have been involved, employing sophisticated electronic warfare systems, prior effective artillery bombardment of the area to be attacked, aerial reconnaissance - and not deploying human wave ‘meat’ assaults. While acknowledging the success of these combined arms operations, the ISW does not think it will translate into wider operational and strategic gains for Russia. Avdiivka itself has not fallen or been completely surrounded and is very well fortified. Even if Avdiivka falls, it will not amount to much of a strategic gain. Russia is probably trying to force the Ukrainians to divert manpower and other resources to the region, away from more southern areas. The ISW does not think that Ukraine will oblige.

Those southern areas of the frontline continue to see incremental Ukrainian advances, as does the area around Bakhmut.

European natural gas prices have assumed their assent, touching €50 per megawatt hour this morning. A shutdown of Israeli gas production in the eastern Mediterranean, a (suspected) sabotaged pipeline between Finland and Estonia, and, potentially, strikes of gas production workers have combined to produce a dramatic spike in prices. Fears of escalation of hostilities in the Middle East have energy (and other) markets on edge. Even though those higher energy prices will complicate the interest rate outlook, a big ‘flight to safety’ fall in bond yields has provided some relief in recent days. That may not last if inflation threatens to shoot up again on the back of higher global energy prices.

Friday October 13th

The Russian assault on the settlement of Adviivka, Donetsk Oblast, is turning into a bigger deal than some observers originally thought. There are 10 -12 points of attack, involving multiple units of heavy armour supported by artillery and helicopters. The Institute for the Study of War e]reckons that Russia has captured around 4.5 square kilometres of territory around the settlement but assessed that there is no sign, yet, of an imminent capture of Adviivka itself. There are, as ever, conflicting reports from the front line but it does appear that Russian losses continue to be heavy. Ukrainian forces are posting an unusually high numbers of videos on various channels that appear to show multiple losses of Russian tanks and other armoured vehicles. Most of the footage is of drones dropping bombs on tanks, often followed by clearly catastrophic explosions of munitions and fuel. The ISW quotes sources who say 15 tanks and 33 other pieces of heavy armour have been destroyed.

The ISW separately quotes a frontline Russian commander calling for a freeze in the war effort to allow for troop rotation and resupply. It is quite clear from these and other similar comments that many Russian units have been in combat for too long and need replacing. It is also clear that any pause in fighting will,be used by Russia to introduce reinforcements for further offensives. There is zero appetite for anything resembling a permanent pause.

Worries over Ukriane’s energy infrastructure continue to grow. Observers notice that Russia has not used long range aircraft (usually for missile launches) for 21 days, an unusually long period of time. These aircraft usually fire AS-23 missiles. The last time such a pause was seen was due to the simple fact that Russian stocks of AS-23s were running low. The UK’s Ministry of Defence  reckons that stocks of the missiles are being rebuilt ahead of an intensive Winter campaign.