Ukraine war diary

'Our Trumpushka'

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

Monday August 7th

Headlines and the words underneath them often stand in stark contrast to each other. ‘War escalates’ is the conclusion many have reached following repeated drone strikes on Moscow and Russia’s Black Sea fleet and ports. But we also learn, if we read the small print, that the Kremlin used less powerful Iranian drones, rather than cruise missiles, when it attacked a port close to NATO member Romania. Also, Ukraine was careful to target only the engine room of a Russian warship, fearful of causing a catastrophic oil spill. Your correspondent doubts the ability of either side to calibrate their military endeavours with such precision.

The main takeaway here is not my interpretation but to note the ever increasing number of alternative explanations for any particular war story. And the unending disputes over basic facts: how many times have we heard claims that ‘Russia is running out of missiles’? By my count, admittedly using unverifiable reports, Russia fired over 200 drones and missiles over the past week alone.

Ukraine’s attacks on ships and ports in the Black Sea now threaten all of Russia’s grain exports and about 20% of its shipments of oil & gas. Freight costs are shooting up, not least the price of insuring any ship going anywhere near the Black Sea. Russia has just had its second bumper harvest in a row and there are serious concerns about its ability to ship grain to Africa. 

The ‘peace conference’ in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, just wrapped up, without much happening. Perhaps the only thing of any significance was the attendance of China. What that significance amounted to is something that has received multiple interpretations. Maybe it was something, probably it was nothing. At least the participants agreed to meet again. A former adviser to Putin appeared on state television over the weekend demanding the participation of Viktor Yanukovych at the next meeting. That’s the ex-Ukrainian president who has been living in exile in Russia after being deposed in the Maidan revolution in 2014.

Russian state TV has been bemoaning the trials and tribulations of Donald Trump, sometimes referred to as ‘our Trumpushka’. One or two talking heads have been speculating, with horror, about a potential jail sentence of ‘500 years’. 

Tuesday August 8th

The multiple attacks overnight on a single residential building in Pokrovsk provides yet another reminder that Russia is not running out of missiles. Supplies of military equipment involve both stocks and flows. The ability to manufacture arms (the flow) is at least as critical as stockpiles. Putin recognises this and yesterday demanded an increase in the domestic production of drones. Russia’s economy has gradually been placed on a war footing with many companies involved in armaments manufacturing now working 24/7. The Kremlin is also buying arms from Iran, North Korea and the global black market. 

Kyiv yesterday claimed it has shot down 65 Russian missiles and 178 drones over the last week alone. A small proportion of the ordnance is getting to its targets. Russia is getting all this kit from somewhere.

There is a similar grim calculus regarding the supply of men. Headlines that claim Russia is running out of troops focus on the stock and ignore the flow. Russian demographics are terrible, with a shrinking population, but there are millions of men available for conscription, should Putin choose to mobilise them. 

The overnight attacks on the Donetsk region continued a pattern seen since 2014, not just since the invasion. Olena Zelenska, wife of Ukraine’s president, tweeted “Pokrovsk, Donetsk region. Enemy shelling has not subsided here for years. And every hit to residential buildings hurts anew". 

An adviser to President Zelensky suggested yesterday that even if Russia is forced back to its old borders, the war could continue. That’s a sobering thought but a logical one: wherever a ‘post-war’ border is drawn, Russia could easily use it to regroup and reinforce its lines ahead of another full-scale invasion or ongoing, low-level series of attacks similar to the post-2014 attacks referenced by Olena Zelenska. 

Wednesday August 9th

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has made vague claims about the involvement of his mercenary forces in Niger. While it is true that Wagner has a long history of installing and supporting regimes of varying degrees of nastiness, it seems that the driving force behind the coup was a decision by Niger’s leader to sack his chief bodyguard. The head minder responded by leading a government takeover. President Mohamed Bazoum in turn reacted to the appearance of General Tchiani’s forces by locking himself in a safe room. An internal squabble has nonetheless been welcomed by the Kremlin.

If Niger follows the Sahel coup playbook, it will now expel  French and American troops and welcome Wagner’s arrival and Putin’s influence. Bloomberg commentator Andreas Kluth today observes that Niger is now just another front in Putin’s self-described civilisation struggle with the West. One that goes in several directions and through many countries, especially, of course, Ukraine. 

Putin loves the chaos in the Sahel: it is fast becoming the epicentre of global terrorism and, at the very least, helps drive waves of refugees into Europe. Kluth muses that events in Niger might come to be seen as when the next World War started.

On that cheerful note, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are all upping security on their respective borders with Belarus. The latest news from Russia’s ally is that Wagner has erected a ‘tent city’ 24 kilometres from the Polish border. Warsaw has increased by 50% its troop numbers along that frontier.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov met yesterday with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Li.  The Chinese and Russian foreign ministries diverged in their subsequent descriptions of the talks. The Institute for the Study of War interprets the difference to a small but growing gap between Beijing and Moscow and that the ‘no limits’ partnership may not be all that the Kremlin hoped for.

Thursday August 10th

Borders are being reinforced from Poland, to Russia and the Baltics. Warsaw has announced an extra 10000 troops, a number that seems to increase daily, will be sent to its frontier with Belarus. The Poles are clearly worried about the build up of Wagner mercenary forces in its Russian-satellite neighbour. The Russian defence ministry yesterday announced more troops will be sent to its border with Finland, following that country’s accession to NATO. Sergei Shoigu told his ministry’s governing board that Sweden and Finland joining NATO will be ‘seriously destabilising’.

Polish concerns about possible mischief-making are well-founded but there may be less to worry about given new rumours that the mercenaries are, in fact, about to pull out of Belarus. The Institute for the Study of war thinks that Belorusian President Lukashenko has refused to pay for his new guests. There is also a suggestion that the post-mutiny deal between Putin and Wagner has fallen apart. Putin’s public attempts to separate Wagner from its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, have clearly failed. Sergei Shoigu’s move to take control of Russian military operations in Africa has angered senior Wagner operatives, who are used to calling the shots, and reaping the spoils, in the Sahel and elsewhere. 

Last April, Ukraine’s government announced a new initiative, ‘Brave 1’, designed to bring together the country’s disparate technological research into new weaponry. Bloomberg reports today on a conference underway in Kyiv that is discussing the fruits of Ukraine’s ‘cottage industry’ of advanced weapons development. 

Many examples are cited, a lot of them showcasing advances in AI and drones. The fruits of the Ukrainian research were on display last week when newly developed explosive sea drones disabled two Russian ships in the Black Sea. Other, lower profile, inventions include the conversion of e-cigarettes into battery packs. Ukraine is keen to publicise its advanced domestic weapons program in order to honour its promise not to attack Russian territory with NATO-supplied arms.

Friday August 11th

Russia appears to be making some progress with its offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine. 11000 residents of villages and settlements near the city of Kupyansk, Kharkiv region, have been ordered to evacuate by Ukrainian authorities. Russia has made claims about territorial gains, which Ukraine has denied, saying the evacuations are because of constant Russian shelling.

This is not the first time such evacuation orders have been issued. Some observers have described the northeast as a ‘yo-yo war’. Russia has devoted considerable resources to offensive efforts in this part of the frontline. There is no sign that they intend - or have the resources - to take and hold a significant amount of territory, at least not yet. The intention seems to be to suck Ukrainian troops and armour away from the frontline further south.

Meanwhile Ukraine continues to attack in at least three different areas. Many different stories and features have appeared in recent days about the mine clearing operations of Ukrainian sappers, also known in some quarters as the suicide squad. Sometimes working only with knives and other tools to dismantle Russia’s extensive minefields. Progress is still sometimes measured only in metres, but there is progress.

The rumours of a Wagner pullout from Belarus remain unconfirmed. Indeed, around 250 of the mercenaries have been reported making a nuisance of themselves near the Polish border. In Niger, the leaders of the recent coup have announced that Wagner fighters will work alongside local militias to provide security for the capital. In Mali, Wagner continues to operate with the authorities in opposition to Al Qaeda.