Ukraine war diary

The US turns away. As does Slovakia, as looks like Poland will. So it begins.

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

Monday October 2nd

Precise details are hard to come by but it looks like Ukraine has managed to establish something of a safe corridor for a few ships carrying grain exports through the Black Sea. When Russia pulled out of the Black Sea  agreement earlier in the summer, nobody forecast that Ukraine would still be exported any grain today. In a way, it is the most unremarked success of the counteroffensive. While many ship operators will still regard the Black Sea as too risky (and could well struggle to obtain insurance) the fact that any grain is getting through is testament to Ukrainian naval operations.

Russia has been staging ‘tactical counterattacks’ as part of its defensive operations in western Zaporizhia oblast. The Institute for the Study of war notes that key trench systems seem to have changed hands in recent days, yet another indication of a relatively static frontline.

The ISW thinks another Prigozhin is entering the war. The late head of mercenary group Wagner had a son, Pavel, who is, apparently, manoeuvring to take over whatever is left of the ‘Private Military Company’. One problem is that Wagner already has a Putin-approved new leader.

There are one or two early signs that suggest Russia is getting better at drone warfare. It may be a blip but Ukraine is shooting down a smaller than usual proportion of drones fired by Moscow.

Russia’s economy is fundamentally restructuring. The UK’s Ministry of Defence over the weekend reported on leaked documents that show Russia’s defence spending in 2024 will reach 30% of total public spending or 6% of GDP. That’s a 68% increase next year compared to 2023. It compares with NATO’s target for its members’ defence spending of  2% of GDP - which is rarely met. 

The MoD thinks the Kremlin’s plans look sustainable - but not without consequences for the wider economy. It is consistent with the idea that Russia is preparing for years of conflict in Ukraine.

Tuesday October 3rd

Preparations for a ‘forever war’ grow daily. Kharkiv, the country’s second city, sits close to the Russian border. Missile and drone attacks occur daily. Sky News reports that at least one new school is being built that will be completely underground. Ukraine has previously constructed underground classrooms but this is the first time an entire school is to be constructed in this way. Kharkiv is also leading the way in a new technology: using drones as minesweepers. Thousands of unexploded devices have been discovered in the region.

The EU’s foreign ministers met in Kyiv yesterday, the first ever such meeting. Josep Borrell, the bloc’s foreign policy chief talked about a multi-annual ‘peace facility’ that included €5 billion for 2024. Borrell committed to training 40,000 Ukrainian soldiers, including fighter pilots, in relatively short order. He also stressed Ukraine’s candidacy to join the EU.

As Winter approaches, fears are growing once again about Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Kyiv just about got away without a total collapse in energy production last winter and it is widely expected that Russian will try again over the coming months. The Economist has tallied the number of days Ukraine’s citizens faced without power last year: a total of five winter weeks. Every spare part was used up in replacements for destroyed energy infrastructure. At the start of last winter their was some spare capacity. That is not true this year, leaving Ukraine much more vulnerable to further attacks. 

Sky also cites 13 unidentified sources who say that Russia has formed ‘punishment battalions’ of convicts and drunks who are sent to the most dangerous parts of the line without any regard for their safety. Stalin was infamous for doing the same during the Second World War. They are treated ‘just like meat’ said one source.

Wednesday October 4th

Tokmak is a small occupied city in Zaporizhia oblast. It’s pre-war population was around 32,000 and it stands a relatively short distance south of the current frontline. It is likely to be a key target for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, not least because its capture would be a significant milestone in any attempt to reach the Sea of Azov. Tokmak also contains Russia’s local military command HQ. Naturally, given the presence of so many important commanders, Russia has put considerable effort into its defences, not least extensive surface to air missile batteries. Just how twitchy are those defences was revealed this morning in a U.K. Ministry of Defence briefing. In the last few days a Russian SU-355 M Flanker multi-purpose jet was shot down over Tokmak by friendly fire. The SU-355 is the most advanced Russian plane and brings the total number of Moscow’s aircraft lost during the war to about 90.

Various sources are sounding warnings about low Western stocks of weapons ammunition. A lot has been sent  to Ukriane, less has been newly manufactured. The issue of resupply is particularly acute in the US. Producing new arms at a sufficient rate is one thing, having the money to do so is another. One of the strange features of the group of right wing Republicans who ousted the House Speaker is that nobody is quite sure what their demands are. One thing is clear: they want US support for Ukraine to end. 

One of Vladimir Putin’s biggest supporters is the leader of Chechnya. Lots of Chechens are said to be active in Ukraine. Reports of ethnic tensions amongst occupying forces often involve incidents between Russians and Chechens. It wasn’t that long ago (2000 to be precise) when Moscow invaded Chechnya and laid waste to Grozny. Chechnya’s head, Ramzan Kadyrov, has just made his 24 year old daughter deputy prime minister.

Thursday October 5th

The war in Ukraine really began in 2014 with the partial Russian seizure of the Donbas region in the east and the annexation of Crimea. 2014 also marked the start of the civil war in Yemen, another war that has continued until the present day. Iran has been a major supplier of arms to both conflicts. Shipments of weapons from Tehran to Yemen have been seized several times ever since a UN resolution banned arming participants in the civil war. One such seizure took place last December and included 1.1 million rounds of 7.62 mm ammunition suitable for Kalashnikov rifles (and their many variants). Ukraine still uses Kalashnikovs and, on Monday, was the grateful recipient of those seized bullets, donated by the US. Iran is now the proud supplier of arms to both sides fighting the Ukrainian war.

During the war, one key sign that something significant is about to happen is the sudden movement - exit - of senior Russian personnel out of an occupied city or town. Your correspondent has mentioned the significance of Tokmak, a key city in Zaporizhia oblast that contains a regional Russian command HQ and is almost certainly a target for the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Unconfirmed reports suggest that members of Russia’s, security services (particularly those of the FSB) might have suddenly vacated their apartments in the centre of Tokmak. 

In what may not be a coincidence, Putin has not left Russia since the ICC issued his arrest warrant last year. Kyrgyzstan has signed but is yet to ratify its full membership of the ICC. Kabar, a Kyrgyz news agency, reports that Putin has been invited to visit on October 12th.

Any history of Europe is dominated by war. Only two European countries have maintained unchanged, separate sovereign existence over the last 500 years. During that same time, by this amateur historian’s count, Germany and France fought at least seventeen wars. The post WW2 structures that ensured, more or less, European peace are starting to fracture. The Institute for the Study of War is not the first to worry that one key part of Post WW2 peace, the US, is turning away.

Friday October 6th

The partnership between China and Russia knows ‘no limits’ according to its own propaganda and is founded on a set of core beliefs that sees the West as ‘decadent, dysfunctional and easily distracted’. Hal Brands, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, writes in a Bloomberg column that asks ‘What happens if the US stops funding Ukraine’. Nothing good is the unsurprising answer. 

Right now, the US has stopped arming Ukraine, at least in terms of any new funding. Joe Biden and Mitch McConnell, leader of the Senate Republicans, are racing to try and get a super sized package approved next month, mindful it may be their last opportunity to get Congress to vote their way. They may not even get that. A majority of Republicans in the House are now opposed to helping Ukraine. That Putin-Xi description of the West may not be that wide of the mark. Particularly when the Republicans most opposed to funding Ukraine, the ones who ousted their Speaker, can be described as pure ‘nihilists’, as Gerard Baker, usually in sympathy with the GOP,  does in today’s Times. 

Brands correctly points out that even if Europe steps up to replace US cash, there aren’t nearly enough stockpiles of EU, British or S. Korean artillery shells and other munitions ready to be sent to Ukraine. 

The ending of US support for Ukraine, should it occur, will force Zelensky into a very dark place. There will be no 2024 counteroffensive. Holding the line will become the priority, something that may or may not be possible. In such circumstances, he may have to go to the negotiating table with Putin. The Russian President’s strategy is crystal clear: just wait for all this to unfold.

China, meanwhile, sees the US pulling back from its strategic commitments. We might wonder what lessons Xi will draw from that. Decades ago, rich citizens in Hong Kong used to keep ocean-going motor yachts on standby in Victoria Harbour, running the engines for a few minutes every day, ‘just in case the People’s Liberation Army suddenly appeared on the horizon’. In the end, the British just conceded Hong Kong to the PLA. We might wonder what rich (and not so rich) Taiwanese are thinking today.