Ukraine war diary

Progress measured in metres

Chris Johns

I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.

Monday August 14th

Wheat prices are up 0.42% as your correspondent writes this. That could, of course, change a lot by the time you read this - like any other commodity, wheat is traded continuously throughout the day, by farmers and speculators. Natural gas prices rose by 30% in a matter of minutes last week, not because of any new Russian pipeline explosions but because speculators rushed to cover short positions after some negative news about Australian liquid natural gas production. In speculative markets, everything is connected to everything else. Even if Australian gas is not consumed in Europe. 

Surprisingly perhaps, wheat prices barely budged in the hours following this weekend’s news that the Russian navy fired warning shots over a merchant vessel sailing in the Black Sea. Grain markets appear to be taking a relatively sophisticated view: Russia’s summer harvest has been a bumper one and will need this to sell its surplus grain somewhere. Harvests elsewhere in the world have also been relatively good. 

Russia’s need for export revenues (its food trade is not sanctioned) is acute, as the falling rouble attests. That’s not to say that grain prices couldn’t suddenly mimic natural gas prices - in a normal world, both would be a lot lower than they are now. Just a reminder that things are far from normal and that the dramatic falls in energy prices seem over the past year are, for now at least, over. 

More incremental progress has been made by Ukrainian forces fighting towards the south of the frontline. Russian military bloggers claim a ‘controlled retreat’ occurred from the settlement of Urozhaine to pre-prepared defensive lines. Quite harrowing video has also appeared purporting to show a rout of Russian soldiers running from Urozhaine and suffering heavy casualties. There are conflicting reports over whether or not Russia still occupies the southern portion of the town. 

Tuesday August 15th

Comparisons have been drawn between World War One’s Western Front and today’s frontline in Eastern Ukraine. There were plenty of attacks and counteroffensives between 1915-17, including the battles of Verdun, Somme and Passchendaele: casualties by the million but no significant changes to the frontline. Until 1918 of course, when things went from stalemate to Allied victory in a relatively short space of time.

To break the impasse, both sides attempted innovation: air forces, poison gas  and tanks were the result. The one new weapon that facilitated both the slaughter and the stalemate was the machine gun. One or two analysts think that the near static nature of todays’s frontline is being facilitated by another new weapon, the drone. Both sides have rapidly developed advanced drone capabilities, both sides copy each others innovations.

Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Malyar yesterday illustrated perfectly the slow moving nature of Kyiv’s counteroffensive - and why we describe it as near-static rather than frozen. Malyar described at least two regions of offensive operations without giving details about territorial gains, if any. But specific mention was made about gains in the Bakhmut area, where Ukraine continues to try and encircle the Russian forces occupying the ruined city. Malyar stated that three square kilometres were liberated yesterday, bringing the total amount of territory gained, in this part of the frontline, to 40 square kilometres since the start of the counteroffensive, both Ukraine and Russia are staging offensive attacks in the Kupyansk region. 

Analysts are focused on the state of Russia’s reserves. Ukraine’s war of attrition has depleted much of the Kremlin’s available hardware, to the point where old Soviet-era inventory is now being deployed. Without further conscription - and the absence of Wagner mercenaries - the number of troops available to commanders is limited and lack of rotation suggests that many are exhausted. That said, some new kit and fresh troops arrive daily. Many have concluded that Russia can manage a long war at the current level of intensity, but manpower and materiel constraints render its defences brittle and probably unable to counter a sustained escalation from here, should Ukraine be able to mount one. 

Wednesday August 16th

Russia’s Defence Minister stated yesterday that the Kremlin is rethinking its earlier decision not to use cluster munitions in its invasion of Ukraine. That appears to be a response to the effective use of newly arrived, US-supplied, cluster weapons by Kyiv. It is a curious statement because Russia has been using cluster bombs since the start of the war.

The Chief of Staff to NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg has provoked a furious row with Kyiv over a suggestion that Ukraine may have to trade territory for peace. NATO has subsequently clarified Stian Jensen’s remarks, saying the organisation’s position on Ukrainian territorial integrity is unchanged. 

An unnamed Danube river port was attacked yesterday by Russia, according to Ukrainian officials. It’s the latest in a series of Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine’s grain export industry. Wheat prices were up slightly on the news, having fallen steadily over the last few days. Moscow will be happier with the recent rise in European natural gas prices, now up 65% from their June lows. Gas prices are still a lot lower that last summer’s peak but the recent surge is a reminder that the energy price crisis is far from over. 

Americans are growing weary of support for Ukraine. In a new CNN poll, 55% of respondents said that the US Congress should not authorise any additional funds (71% of Republicans were opposed to additional support). A ‘Republicans for Ukraine’ group, an endangered species perhaps, yesterday began a $2 million advertising campaign ahead of key Congressional votes on President Biden’s latest requests for support funding.

Russian cruise missiles fired in last few days were, according to Ukrainian officials, manufactured  in April. Russia is also manufacturing copies of the ‘kamikaze’ drones it buys from Iran. With evidence of Western manufactured chips appearing in downed missiles, it seems that sanctions are somewhat leaky.

Thursday August 17th

Last Winter saw multiple Russia attempts to disrupt - if not destroy - Ukraine’s civilian power generation system. Despite hundreds of blackouts, Ukraines power grid came through relatively unscathed. Heroic repair efforts by engineers and other civilian workers were observed on an almost daily basis. A reminder of those blackouts was observed overnight in the Dnipro region where 10,000 residents of Novomoskovsk were left without electricity after a Russian rocket attack. The UK’s Ministry of Defence stated this morning that it thinks Kyiv has enough stocks of coal and gas to get through the next winter. Russia will no doubt try again to stop power being both generated and distributed.  

Once again, Russian military bloggers are claiming that Ukraine has ‘finally’ committed its reserves for a major assault. After the disappointment of the first phase of the counter in early June, Ukraine has held back the bulk of its remaining Western heavy armour. That’s not to say that no Bradley infantry fighting vehicles or Leopard 2 tanks are ever used. When one or two of these are observed at or near the front line, Russian commentators seem to automatically assume that a ‘big push’ is underway. While we probably won’t know for sure until some time after the event, and another big offensive could be happening, the evidence suggests only further grinding and limited territorial success for Kyiv. Russian commentators got excited overnight when satellite and drone images of some modern tanks operating near the front were circulated on social media. 

It should be stressed that there is success: another small settlement, Urozhaine, was liberated yesterday. A Russian retreat from the village was rumoured to be taking place at the start of the week and Ukrainian forces are now reliably reported to have taken control of the area. That’s the first village liberated since July. 

Lithuania closed part of its border with Belarus yesterday, echoing moves made by Poland and Latvia. 

Friday August 18th

Alexander Khodakovsky is a Russian officer in charge of the ‘Vostok’ batallion operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast (region). Unusually, but not uniquely, he has been commenting on the state of the war. The Institute for the Study of War quotes the officer saying that Russia should freeze the war along the current front lines and then take the opportunity to rebuild reserves. That echoes remarks made previously by Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Khodakovsky argues that Russia doesn’t currently have the necessary forces to either mount a serious offensive or occupy any more Ukrainian cities. Just how Ukraine is to be persuaded to stop its counteroffensive is not immediately apparent. Perhaps the kilometres-deep minefields are thought enough to keep the Russian defensive line intact. 

More likely, says the ISW, is the growing fear amongst Russian army officers that their reserves are wholly inadequate. Where Ukraine is making ‘tactical’ (ie slow) advances, satellite and other imagery show lateral Russian troop movements. That means the Kremlin is reinforcing areas of Ukrainian breakthrough with troops from elsewhere along the frontline, rather than bring up fresh reserves from the rear. That, in turn, suggests fresh reserves held in the rear don’t exist. 

According to the New York Times, Joe Biden has agreed to supply F-16 aircraft to Ukraine, but only when enough pilots have been trained to operate them. This is the latest instalment in a long series of Ukrainian requests for arms; requests that are initially declined but subsequently agreed to, six or so months later. Your correspondent is willing to bet that Ukraine will now ‘find’ a surprising number of pilots well able to fly F-16s.