I write a (short) daily post for Powerscourt, a Strategic Communications company, based in London and Dublin. The idea is to summarise the news flow around the war in Ukraine - not so much the news that makes the front pages but more the stuff that we find interesting/relevant. News that may have not attracted the attention it deserves. Anyone interested in receiving the short email on a daily basis is welcome to contact Powerscourt here: insights@powerscourt-group.com.
Tuesday 29th August
In recent days, multiple commentators and unnamed Pentagon sources have offered similar analyses of the war: Ukraine cannot win, the counteroffensive won’t reach the Sea of Azov, and negotiations are inevitable after a prolonged period of stalemate. While this line of thinking is now widespread, it is by no means monolithic. Indeed, a backlash of sorts has started.
The Washington DC think tank, the Brookings Institution, has just published a long essay by Constanze Stelzenmuller, a senior fellow at the Institute, which looks at the war from a Russian perspective. When ‘negotiations’ are mentioned by Western analysts, the reaction almost always takes one of two forms. Most commentators simply agree, while a minority argue that the idea is anathema to Ukrainians. Stelzenmuller suggests that negotiations, proper ones at least, are likely to be just as unpopular with the Kremlin.
Stelzenmuller argues we would take Russia both literally and seriously. Everything Putin has said and, in particular, written, points to a revanchism that doesn’t stop with Ukraine. Putin really does believe that both Ukraine and Belarus do not have a separate sovereign existence independent of Russia. The reestablishment of the old Soviet sphere of influence, if not empire, really is the aim of the Putinists. Their only interest in talks would be to provide a pause between conflicts. Any idea that the war could be permanently halted by conceding Crimea and a slice of the Donbas is pure fantasy.
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has made further incremental, albeit costly, progress. The Institute for the Study of War has stepped up its highly unusual attacks on armchair generals who argue that such advances are too slow and unlikely to make much of a difference. Those unnamed Pentagon sources who want Ukraine to focus on a single point of attack are, according to the ISW, guilty of ‘military malpractice’. Ukraine’s attacks on several fronts are pinning down Russian forces who would also otherwise be able to mass at a single point. Ukraine doesn’t actually need to reach the coast to cut Russian supply lines. It just needs to get its artillery within range of those supply lines.
Wednesday 30th August
A “massive” overnight attack on Kyiv has left many people asking, ‘how many missiles does Russia have left?’. Try Googling that question and you will be left none the wiser. What is clear is that Russia’s production of cruise missiles and both purchases and manufacture of drones are enough for it to mount almost daily attacks. The most recent attack on Kyiv is the biggest since the spring, according to Ukrainian sources. More than two dozen cruise missiles and 15 drones were brought down but at least two residents of Kyiv were killed.
The Kremlin has almost certainly increased its missile and drone stocks over the summer and is getting ready for another winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The only question is whether or not it will be at quite the same intensity as last winter’s. Germany this week arrested a man suspected of supplying Russia with key missile components in violation of sanctions.
Ukraine also mounted its own drone attack yesterday, targeting Pskov, a city near the Estonian and Latvian borders. In total, six regions of Russia were targeted, probably making it Kyiv’s lasrgest assault on Russian soil since the war began. All four of Moscow’s airports were shut for a while and military aircraft appeared to be burning on the ground in Pskov.
Separate and private burials yesterday for Wagner’s leadership team were probably intended to prevent the cemeteries becoming shrines to perceived martyrs. Wagner’s PR social media channels sprang to life yesterday, after several days of silence, inviting people to pay a visit to the graves of Prigozhin and others.
Ukrainian armed forces made further advances near Robotyne towards the South of the line and Bakhmut, near the north. Mine clearing operations have begun in the Robotyne region, the success of which will probably determine whether or not Ukraine can engage with Russia’s secondary defensive line and test the theory that the Kremlin’s forces are stretched, tired and demoralised.
Thursday 31st August
Russian military bloggers have reacted angrily to the successful Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian soil. The Kremlin stands accused of trying to silence any criticism, even from loyal commentators and analysts. At least two, possibly four, II-76 aircraft were destroyed although plenty of other drones did not get through.
A prominent State TV chat show host, Vladimir Solovyov, suggested, not for the first time, that tactical nuclear weapons be used in response to Ukrainian drone strikes. This time he called for a nuclear attack on Robotyne, confirming recent reports that Ukraine has successfully advanced in that area. Intriguingly, Solovyov railed against unnamed Moscow elites who are worried about the Russian economy and are calling for Putin to negotiate with a view to ending the conflict and accept the current front line as a permanent border.
The UK’s Ministry of Defence today notes the success of Ukraine’s homegrown drone capabilities. Russia’s inability to defend itself against some of these drones is likely to prompt a Kremlin rethink about its defensive posture. A number of analysts have noted that Russia seems to have effective drone defensive capabilities in Crimea but is unable to fully replicate them on its own soil. The MoD notes the vulnerability of Russian airbases and suggests that the Kremlin will have to significantly up its air defence game.
Yet another commentator has noted Ukraine’s ‘stalled’ offensive. Andreas Kluth, a Bloomberg columnist, walks us through three possibilities for the end of the war. First, an Israeli type solution whereby America arms Ukraine to the teeth and Kyiv settles into a semi-permanent defensive posture, ready for conflict at any time. Or perhaps a WW2 German-style splitting of Ukraine, with ‘West Ukraine’ given full statehood and membership of NATO. Kluth rejects both of these as being unworkable and opts for a Korean solution as being the most likely. This idea has been around for a long time: the conflict doesn’t formally end but merely remains frozen forever.
Friday 1st September
A few short days after publishing reports about a ‘stalled’ counter offensive and Pentagon ‘concern’ about Kyiv’s military strategy, the New York Times now says Ukraine is making ‘small but significant’ advances. Specifically, the NYT reports that units of Ukraine’s 46th Brigade have pushed a few miles east of recently recaptured Robotyne. The apparent contradiction between the two reports can be reconciled by the observation, made by some US officials, that the latest advance represents ‘the first real momentum in weeks’. That’s a judgement call of course, one that may be disputed. Perhaps the deeper message is don’t believe everything you read in the newspapers.
In the days ahead, look out for mention of Tokmak. That’s the next big objective in the South. This town is home to a railway junction that is part of an important logistical hub for Russian supply lines. Tokmak is surrounded by deep Russian defensive lines. But as Ukrainian forces inch ever closer, that railway hub will be within range of precision missiles and drones.
If drone warfare - conducted by both sides - has seen the most significant military and technological advances during the conflict, Ukraine has taken great strides with domestic arms production. President Zelensky has revealed the development of a missile with a 700 kilometre range. Some analysts are linking this very weapon with the one that destroyed aircraft on the ground in Pskov, western Russia, earlier this week.
In his nightly address yesterday, Zelensky only hinted at the links between the new missile and attacks on Russian soil but did state that Ukraine intends to build weapons with even longer range capabilities. The airfield attacked (perhaps twice this week) in Pskov is, not coincidentally, 700 kilometres from the Ukraine/Russian border. Other analysts have noted that missiles with that kind of range means that pretty much any target in Crimea is now vulnerable.