War and Peace
Russia's 'limited' offensive begins
A Diary
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Wekend update:
Russia has staged a large offensive in the Kharkiv region that looks, at first sight at least, to be a tactic to draw in Ukrainian reserves from elsewhere rather than a serious attempt to take Ukraine’s second city. That said, there is now open speculation that Ukraine’s defences are now in such a parlous state that a collapse could happen at any place at any time. In that event the situation becomes, shall we say, dynamic.
Things have changed dramatically for Ukraine since last year’s failed counter-offensive. The reality of their David V Goliath situation is now readily apparent. But the giant - Russia - is most unlikely to be slain by Ukraine’s much smaller army, even with $61 billion of aid. Russia is willing to bear unlimited casualties, has ramped up its arms production and is drawing on massive Soviet-era stockpiles. The domestic weapons stocks might be old but are supplemented by Iranian drones, Korean ballistic missiles and Russian factories that are now increasingly producing sophisticated weapons.
The upshot of all of this is that Ukraine’s best hope is one of holding the line. But what is the long-term plan? Or is this just another forever war? Expect the usual talking heads to say ‘of course Ukraine must decide its own destiny but the West must press for peace talks’.
The Kremlin this week gave its strongest hit yet that Moldova will be next, once Ukraine is captured. ‘Who is next after that?’ is the question being asked in Poland and in the Baltics.
Gaza also looks like a forever war. The logic of that assertion goes something like this: two sides dedicated to each other’s total destruction, but without the means to achieve their objective, are destined to fight, with varying degrees of intensity, forever.
The assault on Rafah involves Israeli troops drawn from other areas of Gaza that the Israelis had previously cleared of Hamas terrorists. As soon as Israeli troops vacate those areas, Hamas appears again. Israel then goes back in.
Not every Israeli or Palestinian wants the total destruction of the other side. But those folks don’t matter so long as power is vested in those who seek the annihilation of their enemy. Only when this changes will their be a chance of the end of this particular forever war.
Not much cheer in any of that. About the only optimistic take we can offer is that The Economist newspaper this week led on its front cover the idea that the international order is in danger of imminent collapse. The Economist is famous for the ‘curse of the cover’. According to ChatGPT (not the best source to be honest), The Economist’s cover page predictions are wrong 68% of the time.
Tuesday May 7th
The business of tracing the roots of famous quotes can be a tricky one. Churchill is a source of much confusion and there are many aphorisms attributed to him, some of which he quite probably didn’t say. ‘America can always be counted to do the right thing but only after all other possibilities have been exhausted’, is by now now almost a Churchillian cliché but scholars have never been able to find any evidence that he actually said it. The only official record of someone saying something similar is a quote by Israeli politician Abba Eban who referred to ‘nations’ rather than the U.S.
Eban is also credited with saying ‘The Arabs never fail to miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity’. He uttered those words after an Israeli-Arab peace conference that took place over 20 years ago in Geneva. That word ‘Arabs’ is often replaced by ‘Palestinians’ by some people who misquote Eban.
Such is the nature of misquotes, your correspondent first heard that quote with ‘Yasser Arafat’, once the leader of the Palestinians, as its subject rather than a whole people or set of nations. Given the reported outcome of the latest set of peace talks, this time in Cairo, we might be tempted to ask if Eban’s aphorism would once again see its subject changed. Or perhaps we just need new words to capture the notion that, depending on how you count these things, formal, often named, peace talks have occurred at least 11 times since 1947. None of which have achieved lasting peace.
Sky News this morning echoes what many other journalists are saying about the start of the long-threatened IDF attack on Rafah. “With this operation, Israel would test the very limits of support that it receives from Western countries like the US, the UK and members of the European Union.” Whether or not the operation makes military sense, either tactically or strategically, a long-term loss of international support is a high price to pay for any country that depends on it.
Wednesday May 8th
Nobody knows for sure what is going on in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Conducted through intermediaries, the talks have yet again ground almost to a halt with many observers suggesting that failure is inevitable when both sides operate with such bad faith. Israel’s stated determination to attack Rafah, notwithstanding the possibility that a peace deal was close, cannot have helped the tone of the negotiations. Hamas’ apparent ‘acceptance’ of a deal was not what it seemed: a number of sources have suggested the new deal was one rewritten by themselves, one they knew Israel could never accept.
Al Jazeera, recently banned by Israel, has published an unverified document that apparently contains the set of proposals ‘accepted’ by Hamas. As Marc Champion of Bloomberg says, the document reveals the essential nature of the problem, the ‘irreconcilable gap’ that exists between the two sides.
Israel wants its hostages back while retaining the freedom to wage war on Hamas in Gaza, while Hamas will only give up the hostages if Israel agrees to a permanent withdrawal from Gaza. Logic suggests that the only way this divide can be bridged, at least in terms of bringing peace to Gaza, is if the hostages are released and Hamas leaves Gaza. If Israel and Hamas remain committed to each other’s destruction then this is a forever war; the only question is where it takes place.
Champion refers is to the website of Masar Badil, the Palestinian Alternative Revolutionary Path Movement. Earlier this week, that website published a webinar with Osama Hamdan, Hamas’ PR chief. The publicist made three points. First, Hamas views the October 7th attacks as a huge success, not least because of Israel’s loss of global standing. Hamdan repeatedly praised the ‘Heroes’ occupying Western university campuses. No regret is expressed over civilian deaths.
Second, Hamdan repeatedly stated that Hamas’ goal is the complete destruction of Israel. Third, a ceasefire will not disrupt that overarching goal: Hamas sees Gaza’s reconstruction as an opportunity to recruit new terrorists.
Thursday May 9th
Peace talks, negotiations and occasional accords have all come and gone since parts of the Arab world first went to war with Israel. Occasionally, talks between Israel and its neighbours have happened almost by accident. Most people will remember the 1993 Oslo Accords, a series of agreements that began with secret talks between Israelis and Palestinians. The Accords have at least part of their roots in a 1991 peace conference in Madrid, at which both Israeli and Arab leaders were present amongst delegations from 70 countries. Hardliners on both sides bitterly opposed the deal. The Israeli Prime Minister who penned his signature to the Oslo Accords was subsequently assassinated by a right-wing extremist.
Another set of talks most recently led to the Abraham Accords, signed in 2020. These were bilateral agreements between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Reuters today reports on how ties between Israel and the UAE have survived the six month war in Gaza, despite obvious strains.
In the immediate wake of Abraham agreement - brokered by Trump’s administration - flights started between Tel Aviv and the UAE, with lots of Israelis establishing businesses and joint ventures, often in high-tech, agri-tech and cyber security industries. The war has slowed the establishment of new businesses almost to a halt and few officials or entrepreneurs appear willing to talk about Israeli-UAE ties. Business continues but much more discretely.
Business has been affected not least by expatriate workers returning to Israel for military service. There have been no Western-style demonstrations of support for Hamas on the streets of the UAE, but flows of Israeli tourists to luxury hotels in Dubai have virtually stopped. Israeli residents - mostly business people - of the UAE generally say they feel safe. The UAE is the only Arab country still hosting an Israeli ambassador.
FridayMay 10th
According to the Institute for the Study of War, one of the core grievances at the heart of Russia’s increasing belligerence towards the West is a belief that the Soviet Union’s role in defeating Hitler is gradually being erased from (Western) histories of WW2. In his speech at the annual Victory Day parade, Putin yesterday railed against those who are trying to ‘demolish’ the memory of Soviet heroism and sacrifice. Western rewriting of history and its support of the ‘Nazi’ regime in Ukraine are, according to Putin, part of a wider effort to incite conflict throughout the world.
If only the Russian leader knew how little history is taught and studied in countries like the U.S. and U.K. If more people took an interest there would be more awareness that Russia was formally allied to Nazi Germany - until Germany, not Russia, broke their pact. A cursory study of history would reveal that Russia’s invasion and treatment of Poland has many parallels with what it is trying to do today in Ukraine.
In parallel with Putin’s ongoing propaganda war, a Kremlin spokesperson has noticeably stepped up rhetoric about the ‘Nazification’ of Moldova. Maria Zakharova yesterday gave an interview to Tass, stating that the Moldovan government is engaging in ‘eugenic’ practices similar to the ones employed by the Nazis in WW2. There are two pro-Russian regions of Moldova, both with lots of Russian speakers. Previously, Russian rhetoric has focussed on Gagauzia and Transnistria. It seems that sights are being set on the entirety of Moldova, such is the way the Kremlin is mimicking how it initially talked about ‘defending’ Russian speakers in Eastern Ukraine and eventually ended up trying to occupy the whole country.