This is a diary, published daily by the consultancy Powerscourt. As usual, I’m sending today the week’s entries but, unusually, with a weekend update. The reason is obvious.
Sunday April 14th
‘99% of Iran’s missiles downed by Israeli and other forces’. Those are today’s headlines. What we know:
Iran telegraphed its intentions. Israel, the UK and US - along with some quietly cooperative Arab countries - had time to prepare and possessed the necessary kit to deal with nearly all of the incoming ordinance.
Israel has stated its intention to retaliate, the US has asked it not to. This will escalate towards all-out war until at least one side chooses not to retaliate.
The successful defence mounted by Israel cost, according to wholly unverified (and probably unverifiable) estimates, north of $1 billion.
That successful defence has thrown into sharp relief that which we already knew: Ukraine could defend itself against Russia if it had the necessary kit.
It doesn’t have that kit. Russia is advancing on the battlefield. Warnings are coming thick and fast that much larger bits of Ukraine are now under threat, if not the whole of Ukraine itself.
The US (Trumpist) argument that Europe should do more is wholly correct. However, while we argue about who should do the most, Ukraine is losing. If Ukraine is lost that will be the start of what happens next. China will take note of the West’s flabbiness, perhaps best described as decadence. North Korea is said to be considering restarting the Korean War . Putin will go for Moldova and other bits of Europe, including NATO countries.
Learned articles are appearing suggesting that this is beginning to look a lot like the 1930s. The new war, it is suggested, will start with hybrid attacks on Western infrastructure: our undersea telecommunications will be cut, our utilities, energy installations and other key industries will be cyber-attacked, and we will be subject to escalating disinformation campaigns (see Thursday’s diary entry, below). All of these things, to varying degrees , have started already. Other horrors await.
Monday April 8th
Nobody says that another European war is imminent but there are plenty of people worried that we are il-prepared for one. A recently resigned U.K. armed forces minister wrote over the weekend about a Whitehall exercise that was supposed to see ministers and civil servants evacuated to bunkers. James Heappey says only a relatively few number of people bothered to learn about what their working day would look like under conditions of war.
Donald Tusk, late of Brussels, now Poland’s Prime Minister, is one of many European politicians who have, in various ways, warned of risk of war. Tusk thinks we are in a ‘pre-war’ period, one that started two years ago. The nearer you get to Ukraine, the more frequent you hear these kinds of warnings. As Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, is steadily being destroyed by Russia, Moscow’s troops are making daily gains on the battlefield. At least one prominent Republican appeared in weekend U.S. TV over the weekend to accuse fellow GOP Congress men and women of falling for Putin’s propaganda. He claims that it’s all NATO’s fault and that he will stop at Ukraine.
‘Thucydides Trap’ is a reference to the war between ancient Sparta and Athens and describes what happens - the inevitability of war - when a rising power challenges the established hegemon. In recent years some academics have analysed the relationship between China and the U.S. in terms of Thucydides trap. A number of analysts have described the war in Gaza in terms of another trap, this one laid by Iran via its proxy, Hamas (and, possibly, Hezbollah). This trap is one fallen into by Israel. Iran’s strategic capabilities may or may not extend to embroiling Israel in a war that attracts even White House criticism.
Iran itself is now warning the U.S. not to fall into yet another kind of trap. Tehran alleges that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set a trap for America, one that risks dragging the U.S. further into conflict between Iran and Israel. The Iranian president’s deputy chief of staff for political affairs suggested over the weekend that the ‘US should not get dragged into Netanyahu’s trap’. Hinting of an impending revenge attack on Israeli targets (in response to the Damascus Iranian consulate’s destruction), Mohammad Jamshidi said the U.S. should ‘step aside so that you don’t get hit’.
Tuesday April 9th
Aukus is a three way agreement between the U.S., UK and Australia which may, or may not, be a defence pact. When first announced, almost three years ago, it immediately achieved the presumably wholly unintended outcome of an extremely upset French government. A deal between France and Australia over submarines was cancelled, two French ambassadors were recalled and, eventually, a large sum of Australian dollars was handed over in compensation to France.
Last weekend, headlines proclaimed that Japan is on the verge of joining the pact. Earlier today, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese squashed that speculation, saying there would be no formal membership invitation to Tokyo. Instead, Japan would be involved in certain technology-sharing arrangements. Australia’s defence minister, at the same press conference, said that Aukus is not, in fact, a defence pact, more a technology-sharing deal. Which, we might suppose, makes question of ‘membership’ somewhat moot.
Japan’s Prime Minister will meet with Joe Biden this week. Fumio Kishida will be joined by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in a three way meeting to discuss, amongst other things, tensions with China, particularly territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
One organisation that is most definitely a defence pact is NATO. Much is made of the historic failure of many of its members to reach the goal of defence spending amounting to 2% of GDP. That failure has upset Donald Trump, amongst others. Some defence officials now say that the old target is a historical anachronism and that the threats from Russia, China, Iran and multiple terrorist organisations now demand a 4% target. According to Bloomberg economics, that would amount to an extra $10 trillion of military spending over the next decade. The peace dividend looks to be well and truly over. The implications for public finances, economies and individual defence companies are likely to be profound.
Wednesday April 10th
According to the UK’s Ministry of Defence, the number of Russian men aged between 31-59 with disabilities has increased by 30% since the Ukraine war started. Not entirely coincidentally, the Chairman of Russia’s State Duma said earlier this week that the country faces a shortage of 30,000 doctors. Many medical staff have left the country over the past two years. Others have quietly left the profession: low pay and poor working conditions are often cited as the reasons for moving on. Russia is said to be importing medics from Africa, often without any checks other than self-certification.
Although unverified, official Ukrainian sources say that Russia has now suffered 450,000 dead and wounded since the war started. That’s at the high end of the range of estimates but, whatever the true figure, Russia’s losses are both horrendous and, arguably, much higher than any NATO member would deem ‘politically acceptable’. Great military advantage can be gained when your economy is almost entirely turned over to war production and your society can, seemingly, bear almost unlimited casualties.
Russia has begun its usual cycle of conscription with few signs of mass mobilisation beyond the regular numbers of young men called up each year. Regular conscripts are not usually ordered to the front line but rather serve in support roles. It is said the Russians think about conscript casualties differently to wounded or killed contract (volunteer) soldiers. One is better tolerated than the other. That said, there are plenty of stories about conscripts being pressured into ‘volunteering’ at the end of their required period of service.
Despite the ending of Congressional approval of more aid for Ukraine, America is finding innovative ways of getting arms to Kyiv. Not for the first time, a consignment of Iranian weapons destined for Houthi terrorists, seized at sea by the U.S. navy, has been sent to Ukraine.
Thursday April 11th
Sweden’s largest TV network, SVT, has published a disturbing deep dive into Russian disinformation campaigns. Anyone who works in financial services these days is trained in how to spot money laundering ‘layering’ techniques designed to hide the origins of dodgy cash. The methods used by the Russians employ similar strategies. Indeed, SVT headline their piece by describing the methods used as ‘laundering’.
One example starts with a video planted anonymously on YouTube. Someone claims that his brother, an Egyptian journalist, has been murdered by Ukrainian special forces in an effort to cover up a purchase of a villa in Egypt by President Zelensky’s mother. SVT documents how the story is wholly bogus but also how it initially spreads throughout Egyptian social and other media channels. Two of the three Egyptian newspapers carrying the story have form when it comes to spreading similar fake news. An English language media organisation picks up the story - that media firm has a Russian IP address - which is then repeated on other English language sites. SVT names the pro-Russian American behind these sites.
Once the stories have appeared in English, Russian media starts to report the stories which now go viral on all the usual social media channels. It’s a pattern which SVT says has been repeated multiple times. The trick usually is to get African media to first run the stories which are then ‘noticed’ by Russian media, enabling the latter to present clear daylight, no connection whatsoever, between Moscow and the original ‘news’.
An ex-Conservative HQ senior staffer commented today on SVT’s expose, saying similar techniques are regularly used by British politicians. An MP asks a tabloid to print something utterly unsubstantiated and then another MP stands up in the House of Commons and says ‘I read in the Express that X’. Other newspapers are then pitched the story as ‘Parliament has been told X’.
The success of the Russian disinformation campaign is measured in terms of the number of people who fall for it. Some commentators are wondering if enough Americans now believe it to the point where the US has now de facto become Ukraine’s enemy. In Washington DC, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Green is sometimes referred to as “Moscow Meg”.
Friday April 12th
The Israeli Foreign Ministry’s furious condemnation of Ireland for seeking to recognise Palestine as a sovereign state and criticism of the new Taoiseach for neglecting to mention hostages held by Hamas comes as belief grows that most or all of those hostages are dead. The Wall Street Journal says that latest ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel could founder not least because Hamas is unable to produce the 40 hostages that are reportedly a key part of the tentative deal.
Xi Jinping has reiterated his oft-expressed belief that reunification of Taiwan and mainland China is inevitable. In a meeting with an ex-President of Taiwan, Xi spoke of the future ‘family reunion’. Ex-President Ma was criticised at home for not demanding that China stop meddling in domestic Taiwanese affairs.
On the subject of reunification, over the last few days, Ireland has seen much controversy over an academic study of the costs of potential reunification. Many people were quick (and correct) to point out that the new research was just the latest in a long of similar studies. It’s also correct to point out that it’s conclusion - someone is going to have to pony up £20 billion a year for decades - depends on on a number of assumptions. The critical assumption relates to the speed with which public sector pay, benefits and pensions in the North are set to the rates seen in the Republic.
What is a matter of arithmetic fact is that the fiscal deficit and debt position of Northern Ireland is twice as bad as that of Greece - at the worst point in that country’s debt (and default) crisis. Someone is going to have to pay - if the Northern Irish economy were to be transformed then that payment would be temporary. But such an economic miracle is rare - but not unprecedented - and usually takes decades to achieve. Whoever pays will be a matter of negotiation. There, the Irish government will be in a weak position.
Most likely, reunification talks will only take place after a referendum in both parts of Ireland. Negotiation theorists tell students that they must have a ‘walk away price’ - the moment when you get up from the table and quit the talks. The problem for the Republic is that a referendum calling for reunification keeps them at the table, whatever the price. Irish politicians will look at the Brexit negotiation process and hope that the same British politicians turn up in the reunification talks.
An amazing amount of information, sadly it’s not looking too good for the world.
War mongering seems to be very popular
What happened to being kind??