War and Peace: A diary

Russia wining and losing, creeping escalation and pointless negotiations.

In a week when much of Europe voted, the only issue that matters - or will matter - didn’t get much of a mention. When Putin’s tanks inevitably cross borders and are in the sight lines of those voters who sent Moscow’s useful idiots to various legislatures, there will be no satisfaction in saying ‘I told you so.’

It is to Ireland’s credit that it rejected its most vocal Russian sympathisers and, perhaps, there is some comfort to be had from the number of Moscow-mules around Europe who didn’t get elected. But Macron is right and his critics wrong: it is past time for Europe to realise that its journey towards the hard political right is the path to Putinism. It really is that simple. Macron is asking the French people - and the rest of Europe - to make the choice and then live with the consequences. Nobody will be able to say they weren’t warned. Macron will be the one saying ‘I told you so’.

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Monday June 10th

Russia is on the defensive in Crimea and is being restricted to probing operations along the frontline in the rest of Ukraine. Kyiv is currently restricted to around 16% of logical targets targets inside Russia itself according to the Institute for the Study of War. The limit on what they can hit is imposed by the White House, although there are no restrictions - almost - on what they can do with their own domestically manufactured weapons.

That point about Crimea is interesting, leading The Economist, for example, to conclude that Russia is in deep trouble there. Moscow is apparently reconciled to sooner or later losing the Kerch bridge that links Crimea to the Russian mainland. Moscow is building up its railway links with Crimea, ones that will be harder to take out, at least permanently. One big test will come with the level of tourist bookings for the summer in Crimea, long a favoured holiday spot with Russians. Visits were down by half last year and a further fall is expected over the next few months.

Crimea is a big logistics hub for Russia but has had to send its Black Sea fleet back to safer harbours away from Ukrainian missiles and drones. Another Russian ship was sunk over the weekend. Ukraine is becoming skilled with sending ‘dummy drones’ to force Russia to switch on its targeting radar systems, alerting Kyiv’s forces to their locations and presenting hittable targets.

Many high-value Russian defensive systems have been taken out in recent weeks, quickly (within minutes) being followed up with ATACMS US-made missiles hitting multiple targets all over Crimea. That’s allowed by the White House, deeming Crimea to be part of occupied Ukraine. The 84% of mustering areas used by the Russians just inside their border that are not deemed to be legitimate targets are being fully used by Russia, safe in the knowledge that they won’t be attacked. That said, Ukraine is getting better all the time at developing their own drone capabilities. AI-powered autonomous drone swarms are thought to be the next step. The nature of war has already been changed with the advent of drones and will evolve, dramatically, the longer the conflict goes on.

Tuesday June 11th

The Aukus security pact seems to have prodded China into stepping up its diplomatic efforts to achieve something of a rapprochement with Australia. A Chinese briefing today to reporters in Beijing by a foreign ministry spokesman included the words “China stands ready to work with Australia through this visit to strengthen high level exchanges, enhance mutual understanding and trust, deepen practical cooperation and jointly build a more mature, stable and fruitful comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Australia.” The Australian Prime Minister has been somewhat more equivocal, saying that his objective is “stabilisation” of relations, ahead of a visit by China’s Prime Minister, the first such trip to Australia in nearly seven years.

The deal between the US and the U.K. to supply nuclear submarines in a few year’s time to Australia irked China and came after Beijing’s fury over official Australian calls for an enquiry into the true origins of the Covid-19 virus. China slapped import controls in a range of Australian products, including wine. Those curbs have been partially lifted over the past year as China seeks both friendlier engagement and access to Australian minerals and other essential ingredients for Beijing’s push to become the world’s manufacturer of choice. China’s stock market is stumbling, reaching a six-week low today, as those efforts to boost the economy continue to disappoint investors.

Ukraine’s efforts to persuade its allies to permit less restrictions on attacks on Russian territories are gathering pace. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has joined calls for granting more latitude to Kyiv, a call echoed by other leaders and military bosses, but one that only receives a tepid welcome in Washington. Meanwhile, Ukraine has appointed a new commander-in-chief of drone forces, a newly created post that comes in recognition of the growing significance of drone warfare. Ukraine continues to pummel Russian targets in occupied Crimea with both domestic and foreign-supplied weapons. 

Wednesday June 12th

Escalation is the fear that has stalked all countries’ military assistance to Ukraine. Yet escalate is what all countries have done. One step at a time. The verbal threats from Putin that come with each new announcement of more weapons and more ‘acceptable’ Russian targets have lost their potency - almost. NATO countries have worked out that China’s emphatic message to the Kremlin, ‘don’t lose but no nukes’, is the only one that matters. So creeping escalation is the order of the day.

The latest step is the decision by Washington to allow Ukraine’s Azov brigade to use American weapons. That unit has long been branded by Moscow as ‘neo-Nazi’ and does, in fact, have connections, albeit perhaps largely historic ones, with far right ideology. The Azov brigade attracted a US weapons ban in 2014, but the US State Department now says there is ‘no evidence’ of human rights abuses or anything else troubling about Azov behaviour. Azov has now been absorbed into the Ukrainian national guard and is now labelled the 12th special forces brigade.

Escalation without effective - scary - Russian retaliation looks set to continue until Moscow also works out what is happening and comes up with a meaningful deterrent.

Sky is reporting the mayor of Kharkiv saying the arrival of American weapons has, for now at least, stopped the Russian advance on the city - Ukraine’s second largest - and restored some semblance of calm. That said, another couple of small Ukrainian villages have fallen to the Russians.

The situation on the Lebanese-Israeli border is deteriorating. Israel yesterday attacked Hezbollah positions, killing a number of terrorists and a senior commander. In retaliation, at least 150 rockets have been fired in two separate waves at Israeli targets. Sky says sirens are still sounding this morning in Northern Israel. It appears to be the largest Hezbollah attack since the latest war started last October.

Thursday June 13th

Current negotiations over a possible ceasefire in Gaza have followed a familiar script. Someone (usually the US but occasionally Qatar or Egypt) comes up with the details of an agreement. Both sides hint that the deal looks doable, but only if certain proposals are ‘clarified’ or ‘tweaked’. Some discussion then takes place, usually involving timelines and/or quantities of people involved in terrorist-for-hostage swaps. Both sides are then said to be in ‘full agreement’ - that claim is mostly made either by UN or White House officials. Or both. That full ‘agreement’ then falls apart and the process begins again. Rinse and repeat.

This time around, in yet another exact repeat of past negotiations, Hamas has just altered its demands to include a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. And other undeliverables that serve the objective of full restoration of Hamas control of Gaza. That’s not the first nor last time those demands will be heard. And, again for the umpteenth time, the US expresses surprise at the idea that Hamas ‘could be negotiating in bad faith’. 

It would be tempting but too cynical to suggest that peace negotiators should stop bothering. Or just go somewhere else in the world, to another war, one  where they stand a chance of success. Hamas’ publicly stated objective is the complete destruction of Israel. It is implacably opposed to any negotiated outcome that leaves Israel intact. Palestinians who express an interest in a two state solution have been murdered by Hamas.

While Hamas clings to those objectives and acts accordingly, the peace negotiations are almost pointless. But, presumably, if a point can be dimly discerned it is that another temporary truce will be better than nothing. That probably is the best and only hope of the negotiators currently going round and round the same circle of despair. 

Friday June 14th

UFOs have been renamed - in the US at least. 80 years worth of data on Unidentified Anonymous Phenomena (UAPs) were recently systematically assessed and thoroughly dismissed in a 63 page report by the Pentagon’s All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office. The national security angle to all this has now elicited a response from the Senate’s Intelligence Committee. 

A new Intelligence Act calls for a review of that Resolution Office and for all UAP research to run through Congress. It’s not so much a belief in aliens hiding amongst us as a threat to national security but more a worry that there have, over the years, just been too many unexplained sightings of weird stuff. It’s more likely to be a Chinese or Russian new piece of kit than a little green man. But, either way, too many officials have, apparently, been too willing to suggest that experienced US airforce pilots are simply crazy when they report seeing objects moving in ways that are tough to explain. 

Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University and Bloomberg columnist, commends the Intelligence Committee for ‘not buying’ the original, dismissive, report of the Resolution Office: ‘The truth remains that there are systematic sightings and sensor data of fast-moving entities that the government cannot explain. You don’t have to think they are space aliens to realise that they are threats to national security….the chatter among insiders, some of which surely reaches senators, is that some of the data is very hard to explain. Some people such as a former head of the CIA, have even speculated that the available evidence might imply contact with a non-human civilisation. Agree or disagree, the admission is a marker of our ignorance’.

That Resolution Office has, effectively, landed in hot water because it wasn’t prepared to admit its ignorance. ‘I don’t know’ is a much underused phrase.