Following the science
David Miles, prof at London’s Imperial College does some proper econ-epi modelling. This is not for those in charge who say they are ‘following the science’ while staring at tea-leaves, wondering what will the 6 o’clock news say. Using different and similar methodology to Jim (see his work on costs/benefits of Covid restrictions elsewhere on this site), it arrives at a similar place (and in a UK, not Irish, context). Like Jim, Miles confronts head on the brutal calculus that looks at the costs of lockdown versus the value of lives saved. Before heads explode - “how can you put a value on human life???” - this is a standard way for governments all over the world to evaluate the merits of all kinds of health interventions. The concept is QALY: quality adjusted life years.
Miles finds, on his central scenario, that the planned phased UK release, relative to just opening now, comes at a cost over 10 times the usual threshold for NHS expenditures. Once over that threshold, the presumption is that the cost isn’t worth the value of the health benefits. Miles also reminds us that the UK lockdown has cost an estimated £350 bn most of which still lies in the future. Running his models with different assumptions yields different trade-offs - this is proper science - but generally finds that persisting with lockdown from here isn’t justified by the costs. And ‘releasing now’ assumes that UK citizens behave like adults, especially when it comes to mask wearing and avoiding crowded indoor settings. Gosh, somebody treating us like adults, that would be novel.
I’m going for an outdoor pint now. Could be better (much better according to Miles) , could be worse. But, on an optimistic note, Ireland will be in the same place soon. Very soon if policymakers take heed of proper research. No, I’m not writing this on April 1st.
Don’t stand so close to me
Bad policy - economic, health or anything else - ignores evidence. We will not stop banging on about indoor vs outdoor risks, the success of the UK’s extended dose interval experiment and the times you should and should not wear masks. Here’s a NYT article about all of this, which examines the evidence - which too few people over here will read.
Do We Still Need to Keep Wearing Masks Outdoors?
Science shows that the risk of viral transmission outside is very low.
The great inflation debate
Sitting in Europe, it might seem that US economists and financial markets getting in a twist about inflation is as relevant to us as is the economic outlook for Alpha Centauri. But what happens to US inflation will affect each and every one of us. It will influence, our mortgages, our jobs and whether Led Zeppelin will reunite (one of these is a joke). It’s quite long, but here is a superb discussion, moderated by the brilliant Gillian Tett of the FT and featuring Professor Larry Summers ex-US Treasury Secretary. It covers all of the issues. Summers is a prominent ‘Keynesian’ who would normally be all for Joe Biden’s massive stimulus plans. But he’s worried that the US economy is already on fire and doesn’t have enough spare capacity to cope. The discussion deals head on with the socio-political dimension of Biden’s plans, something that isn’t getting any air time in Europe.
Running the US economy hot is Biden’s answer to Trumpism. It’s his response to the populist plague. Summers thinks poorer people are going to be hurt by inflation and doesn’t seem to be impressed by the fact that they could be about to get better paid jobs. This one will run and run. If inflation does run out of control, so will financial markets and there will one kind of Donald or another in the White House in four years time. If Biden succeeds we will all be asking our politicians,’why didn’t you do that?’ We make no apology for returning to this debate many times in the future.
Global economy on fire
Manufacturing is, at least. We’ll just leave this tweet here
France is illustrative of the gap, there at least, between manufacturing and services
On the Super League reaching the knock-out phase
A long read for those of you unable to go to the pub (sorry)
Link here.
A brilliant piece of writing with a lot of history and futurology