I broadly agree here and just to add, the Dems spent 18 months denying Biden was in cognitive decline. We were told to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. When they could deny no more, they switched horses to Kamala and she was only marginally more coherent. Voters decided to unburden her from what has been.
Yes, the Democrats have been shown up to be hopeless. Arrogant and out of touch. They have already started an inquest which involves blame and finger pointing. Let;so see if they have the intelligence to learn proper lessons.
This is a succinct article that really hits the nail on the head of why Democrats lost. Given the fact that the entire electorate shift is six points towards Republicans it’s unclear whether any Democrat could’ve won.
The reality is almost every incumbent party in the world is suffering massively because of inflation and voters seem to want to break with the orthodoxy.
Given the margin of Trump’s win, including the vote share in deep blue places, almost no current democrat would have been able to surmount the deficit in the popular vote. To Harris’ credit, she got within 150k votes of an EC win and outperformed other incumbent parties but the incumbency penalty was too great. The FT wrote a great article on it!
There is too much “them and us” talk & thoughts - each side believe they are right - I still cannot understand how 70m could believe Don can do a better job than Kam - the media have had a humongous part to play in gaslighting us on Don’s ineptitude and belittling every tiny spec of Kam!
One thing I haven’t gone into too much (it’s a book-length subject in its own right) is tribalism. It seems to be innate within us. We hate and kill the other. Protestants v Catholics, Sunnis v Shia, Black v White, United v City etc.
The socio-psycho aspects of all this kind of stuff disturb me. We enjoy all this stuff too much. Some of us anyway. Belonging to a tribe seems to give us meaning. But it is too often a damn weird meaning,
I agree with most of what you're saying here, but I think you're giving Bret Stephens a bit too much credit. I suspect his understanding of Trump's appeal is not much better than that of the Democrats, and he's very selective about the aspects of the whole subject that he's interested in considering.
Personally, I thought Harris ran a decent campaign and given the size of the working class swing to Trump, I don't see how anyone else could have beaten him either. Biden was blamed for inflation, and that probably explains most of what happened.
We probably should also ponder the deep sickness that seems to lie at the heart of the American soul, because we now know Trump's first term was not an aberration. They've given the vile degenerate a strong mandate with eyes wide open.
Yes, inflation - and the economy generally -was a really big factor. Biden;a good economy, and it is really good, doesn’t seem to have trickled down enough benefits to enough people. Either that or some people are fibbing.
But I don’t think there is one reason - there are many. My posts and podcasts of late have been genuine attempts to ask what all those other reasons might be.
Yes, eyes wide open. No excuses now. This is who we are now.
Hi Sean, nice to hear and thanks again for another perceptive comment.
With all due respect, I remain to be convinced that I have moved left. I have a conceit that my views are evidence based and change with that evidence. In the past I have been accused of being from the right so there is some evidence that I defy categorisation. Or maybe I just blow with the wind. Or am just bloviating.
That Paul Marshall piece was, in my opinion, just end-to- end nonsense.
It presupposes that Trump is a rational, deeply strategic thinker and policy maker. When all the evidence is that he is the exact opposite.
Marshall forecast good economic outcomes, including slightly higher bond yields & inflation that will not be a big deal. There were a lot of forecasts about how Trump will be a good thing. Nothing about a billionaire class now running the US in their own interests. In economic terms, a country run for monopolistic shareholders.
Nothing about the possible fiscal crisis coming the US way. Nothing about a looming trade war. Nothing about geopolitical chaos, deepening social division and further encouragement for Russian and Chinese imperialism. Nothing about the degradation of the public square via the election of a convicted felon, seditionist, rapist, misogynist, narcissistic man-child reality TV star. nothing about Trumpism’s many contradictions - virulent anti-semitism yet implacably pro-Israel. Nothing about an intelligence chief who is widely reported to be a Russian agent.
I presume that 80 million Americans and their fellow Trump admirers around the world would agree that Trump is good role model for their children.
Nothing about the possibility that for all the horrors that Biden & the Dems have inflicted on America, Trump might just turn out to have worse consequences.
I know, I’m just a liberal semi-elite dinosaur economist.
I broadly agree here and just to add, the Dems spent 18 months denying Biden was in cognitive decline. We were told to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. When they could deny no more, they switched horses to Kamala and she was only marginally more coherent. Voters decided to unburden her from what has been.
Yes, the Democrats have been shown up to be hopeless. Arrogant and out of touch. They have already started an inquest which involves blame and finger pointing. Let;so see if they have the intelligence to learn proper lessons.
This is a succinct article that really hits the nail on the head of why Democrats lost. Given the fact that the entire electorate shift is six points towards Republicans it’s unclear whether any Democrat could’ve won.
The reality is almost every incumbent party in the world is suffering massively because of inflation and voters seem to want to break with the orthodoxy.
Many thanks. Yes, incumbency is clearly a big negative. Maybe Harris really didn’t stand a chance.
Given the margin of Trump’s win, including the vote share in deep blue places, almost no current democrat would have been able to surmount the deficit in the popular vote. To Harris’ credit, she got within 150k votes of an EC win and outperformed other incumbent parties but the incumbency penalty was too great. The FT wrote a great article on it!
https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893
There is too much “them and us” talk & thoughts - each side believe they are right - I still cannot understand how 70m could believe Don can do a better job than Kam - the media have had a humongous part to play in gaslighting us on Don’s ineptitude and belittling every tiny spec of Kam!
One thing I haven’t gone into too much (it’s a book-length subject in its own right) is tribalism. It seems to be innate within us. We hate and kill the other. Protestants v Catholics, Sunnis v Shia, Black v White, United v City etc.
The socio-psycho aspects of all this kind of stuff disturb me. We enjoy all this stuff too much. Some of us anyway. Belonging to a tribe seems to give us meaning. But it is too often a damn weird meaning,
You trailed off there at the end, Chris. “Seems to give us” - what?? Power? Pride? Invincibility?
I agree with most of what you're saying here, but I think you're giving Bret Stephens a bit too much credit. I suspect his understanding of Trump's appeal is not much better than that of the Democrats, and he's very selective about the aspects of the whole subject that he's interested in considering.
Personally, I thought Harris ran a decent campaign and given the size of the working class swing to Trump, I don't see how anyone else could have beaten him either. Biden was blamed for inflation, and that probably explains most of what happened.
We probably should also ponder the deep sickness that seems to lie at the heart of the American soul, because we now know Trump's first term was not an aberration. They've given the vile degenerate a strong mandate with eyes wide open.
Yes, inflation - and the economy generally -was a really big factor. Biden;a good economy, and it is really good, doesn’t seem to have trickled down enough benefits to enough people. Either that or some people are fibbing.
But I don’t think there is one reason - there are many. My posts and podcasts of late have been genuine attempts to ask what all those other reasons might be.
Yes, eyes wide open. No excuses now. This is who we are now.
Hi Sean, nice to hear and thanks again for another perceptive comment.
With all due respect, I remain to be convinced that I have moved left. I have a conceit that my views are evidence based and change with that evidence. In the past I have been accused of being from the right so there is some evidence that I defy categorisation. Or maybe I just blow with the wind. Or am just bloviating.
That Paul Marshall piece was, in my opinion, just end-to- end nonsense.
It presupposes that Trump is a rational, deeply strategic thinker and policy maker. When all the evidence is that he is the exact opposite.
Marshall forecast good economic outcomes, including slightly higher bond yields & inflation that will not be a big deal. There were a lot of forecasts about how Trump will be a good thing. Nothing about a billionaire class now running the US in their own interests. In economic terms, a country run for monopolistic shareholders.
Nothing about the possible fiscal crisis coming the US way. Nothing about a looming trade war. Nothing about geopolitical chaos, deepening social division and further encouragement for Russian and Chinese imperialism. Nothing about the degradation of the public square via the election of a convicted felon, seditionist, rapist, misogynist, narcissistic man-child reality TV star. nothing about Trumpism’s many contradictions - virulent anti-semitism yet implacably pro-Israel. Nothing about an intelligence chief who is widely reported to be a Russian agent.
I presume that 80 million Americans and their fellow Trump admirers around the world would agree that Trump is good role model for their children.
Nothing about the possibility that for all the horrors that Biden & the Dems have inflicted on America, Trump might just turn out to have worse consequences.
I know, I’m just a liberal semi-elite dinosaur economist.