Interesting analysis of franchise vertical integration and the monopoly power of patents and trademarks.
I do take issue with the statement which I paraphrase as ‘no one wants to work in a factory so it’s fine that all manufacturing is in the third world’. Clearly not all people are the same so their desires will clearly differ.
I lean towards the view: neo-liberals in the developed world don’t want to see the environmental damage and labor strife in their neighborhoods. So they want all the goods a global economy provides but other people can suffer the harm production of said goods create.
Labor and environmental arbitrage is a short term game in which Karma is not your friend.
Another great podcast guys. I’m also delighted to see some neck on the line by time-boxing some financial forecasts!
What are your thoughts on the likely central bank response to a potential property price crash? My thoughts are they would tolerate a slump. But any crash that pushes banks towards holding negative equity loan books or which slows down the housing supply that they’ve recent history of showing concern about they could move to correct by simply loosening their borrowing rules. Would they be likely to do this?
I think central banks will be relaxed about lower property prices. But only up to the point where the banking system is not materially threatened. Given the experience of the last property crash, and the likelihood of another one, the retail banks should be told by regulators to stop NOW paying dividends and to raise equity. They won’t do this. Easing borrowing rules now will make future bad loan problems worse so would be a dumb thing to do. I’ve no idea how bad things will get, but we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, as the old cliche goes. That means learning the lessons of the last property crash.
Interesting analysis of franchise vertical integration and the monopoly power of patents and trademarks.
I do take issue with the statement which I paraphrase as ‘no one wants to work in a factory so it’s fine that all manufacturing is in the third world’. Clearly not all people are the same so their desires will clearly differ.
I lean towards the view: neo-liberals in the developed world don’t want to see the environmental damage and labor strife in their neighborhoods. So they want all the goods a global economy provides but other people can suffer the harm production of said goods create.
Labor and environmental arbitrage is a short term game in which Karma is not your friend.
Another great podcast guys. I’m also delighted to see some neck on the line by time-boxing some financial forecasts!
What are your thoughts on the likely central bank response to a potential property price crash? My thoughts are they would tolerate a slump. But any crash that pushes banks towards holding negative equity loan books or which slows down the housing supply that they’ve recent history of showing concern about they could move to correct by simply loosening their borrowing rules. Would they be likely to do this?
I think central banks will be relaxed about lower property prices. But only up to the point where the banking system is not materially threatened. Given the experience of the last property crash, and the likelihood of another one, the retail banks should be told by regulators to stop NOW paying dividends and to raise equity. They won’t do this. Easing borrowing rules now will make future bad loan problems worse so would be a dumb thing to do. I’ve no idea how bad things will get, but we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, as the old cliche goes. That means learning the lessons of the last property crash.