In relation to chat gpt it’s worth considering a number of things:
1) Some of the developers involved in the technology admit they don’t understand how it works
2) The thinking is that progress will remain horizontal but all of a sudden turn vertical
3) Concerns about loss of employment etc seem trivial when considering the potential impact of later versions of the ai. Gpt 3 is comparable with an average graduate student where as they say gpt 4 can contribute to phd work
4) There is a lack of oversight and planning to deal with ai take off in relation to a capable agi that can exponentially improve
It may seem like science fiction but failing to prepare for the advent of such a technology could lead to serious unintended consequences
The case for rising interest rates is the result of ECB s policy of massive money printing and zero interest rates which went on too long. Now inflation out of control and they are caught tackle inflation with higher rates but create a recession. In the end inflation will win and rates will be cut and QE will be back or more like never left.
I was going to delve into how the impact of interest rate rises on existing home owners can affect the price of homes, but I thought I’d ask Chat GBT instead.
Interest rate rises can have a significant impact on existing home owners, as well as on the overall housing market. When interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive for people to borrow money to purchase homes, which can lead to a decrease in demand for housing. This can then put downward pressure on house prices, particularly if there is a large number of homes for sale.
For existing home owners, an increase in interest rates can also affect the cost of their mortgage repayments. If their mortgage is on a variable rate, their monthly repayments may increase, which can be particularly challenging if they are already struggling to make ends meet. As a result, some home owners may decide to sell their homes in order to avoid the higher costs, which can put further downward pressure on house prices.
In addition, rising interest rates can also impact the wider economy, which can then have a knock-on effect on the housing market. For example, if interest rates rise, it can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a slowdown in economic growth. This can then impact consumer confidence, which may lead to a decrease in demand for housing.
Overall, the impact of interest rate rises on existing home owners can be significant, and can lead to a decrease in house prices. However, the extent to which this happens will depend on a range of factors, including the level of interest rate rises, the state of the wider economy, and the level of demand for housing in the local area.
I’ll give that answer a 4 out of 10. Just because I asked for the impact from existing home owners and it delves into rising interest rates in general.
Existing home owners like to move. They get their starter home and trade up, sometimes more than once. If they find it harder to trade up, then it reduces the stock of available starter homes, and the price of the more expensive homes they want to buy.
Unrelated question. I believe capital is still flowing out of the UK (can you confirm or deny?) If this is the case, what are the chances of the UK government putting capital controls in place like South Africa? Possibly something a Labour government would have to look at? Maybe this is something you can address in a future podcast or substack. Thanks, Philip
Just to say I agree with your nuanced analysis of the housing problem although going back a number of years I would say the government has been too slow to react to the problem and give it top priority over issues like the Brexit. It was very late in the day that Micheál Martin recognised it as a crisis requiring top priority unfortunately and it's still not clear that it is being fully prioritised, for example budgets focus more on handing out goodies than getting social houses built. It's origins lie in the retrenchment after the financial crisis and here we are, no easy solutions but you can't say that!
Totally agree Ciaran. Never afforded the priority or urgency required and the events after 2011 have caused the problem
In relation to chat gpt it’s worth considering a number of things:
1) Some of the developers involved in the technology admit they don’t understand how it works
2) The thinking is that progress will remain horizontal but all of a sudden turn vertical
3) Concerns about loss of employment etc seem trivial when considering the potential impact of later versions of the ai. Gpt 3 is comparable with an average graduate student where as they say gpt 4 can contribute to phd work
4) There is a lack of oversight and planning to deal with ai take off in relation to a capable agi that can exponentially improve
It may seem like science fiction but failing to prepare for the advent of such a technology could lead to serious unintended consequences
The case for rising interest rates is the result of ECB s policy of massive money printing and zero interest rates which went on too long. Now inflation out of control and they are caught tackle inflation with higher rates but create a recession. In the end inflation will win and rates will be cut and QE will be back or more like never left.
Hi lads. Great discussion again.
I was going to delve into how the impact of interest rate rises on existing home owners can affect the price of homes, but I thought I’d ask Chat GBT instead.
Interest rate rises can have a significant impact on existing home owners, as well as on the overall housing market. When interest rates rise, it becomes more expensive for people to borrow money to purchase homes, which can lead to a decrease in demand for housing. This can then put downward pressure on house prices, particularly if there is a large number of homes for sale.
For existing home owners, an increase in interest rates can also affect the cost of their mortgage repayments. If their mortgage is on a variable rate, their monthly repayments may increase, which can be particularly challenging if they are already struggling to make ends meet. As a result, some home owners may decide to sell their homes in order to avoid the higher costs, which can put further downward pressure on house prices.
In addition, rising interest rates can also impact the wider economy, which can then have a knock-on effect on the housing market. For example, if interest rates rise, it can make it more expensive for businesses to borrow money, which can lead to a slowdown in economic growth. This can then impact consumer confidence, which may lead to a decrease in demand for housing.
Overall, the impact of interest rate rises on existing home owners can be significant, and can lead to a decrease in house prices. However, the extent to which this happens will depend on a range of factors, including the level of interest rate rises, the state of the wider economy, and the level of demand for housing in the local area.
I’ll give that answer a 4 out of 10. Just because I asked for the impact from existing home owners and it delves into rising interest rates in general.
Existing home owners like to move. They get their starter home and trade up, sometimes more than once. If they find it harder to trade up, then it reduces the stock of available starter homes, and the price of the more expensive homes they want to buy.
Unrelated question. I believe capital is still flowing out of the UK (can you confirm or deny?) If this is the case, what are the chances of the UK government putting capital controls in place like South Africa? Possibly something a Labour government would have to look at? Maybe this is something you can address in a future podcast or substack. Thanks, Philip
Just to say I agree with your nuanced analysis of the housing problem although going back a number of years I would say the government has been too slow to react to the problem and give it top priority over issues like the Brexit. It was very late in the day that Micheál Martin recognised it as a crisis requiring top priority unfortunately and it's still not clear that it is being fully prioritised, for example budgets focus more on handing out goodies than getting social houses built. It's origins lie in the retrenchment after the financial crisis and here we are, no easy solutions but you can't say that!