A “de-globalisation” within the world’s economy must also surely coincide with a “de-correlation” between geographical sectors you would think? How much depends on how real this de-globalisation actually is.
I’m still quite sceptical of whether that trend will sustain itself. If the efficient global supplier (or cheaper sweat-shop) option is available once more whenever these supply obstacles dissipate, my guess is western society will choose it once again.
Spare a thought for the monetary policy timing effects on global demand. If the US (and indeed the UK or other economies) move first to raise interest rates and trigger a recession it will dampen demand from those economies for goods traded globally. Could the eurozone see some benefit from this dampened demand on globally traded goods before they go anywhere near their own interest rates?
When we examine the EU, China and the US, I think they’re all facing challenges which seem a little different. In my opinion, the only one facing a big structural problems is China, whereas what the EU and US face seems more cyclical in nature.
I think you illustrate the complexities very well. If US inflation starts to slow because its economy does the same then the ECB is off the hook. Deglobalisation might mean the emergence of 2 or 3 trading blocs that don’t do much trade with each other. But I think, for the reasons you suggest, the death of globalisation is much exaggerated. Unless governments mandate restoring for strategic reasons, China is going to do that, after seeing what is happening to Russia. That;s just going to add to the Chinese problems that you identify.
Hi Guys. Big fan of your latest podcast.
A “de-globalisation” within the world’s economy must also surely coincide with a “de-correlation” between geographical sectors you would think? How much depends on how real this de-globalisation actually is.
I’m still quite sceptical of whether that trend will sustain itself. If the efficient global supplier (or cheaper sweat-shop) option is available once more whenever these supply obstacles dissipate, my guess is western society will choose it once again.
Spare a thought for the monetary policy timing effects on global demand. If the US (and indeed the UK or other economies) move first to raise interest rates and trigger a recession it will dampen demand from those economies for goods traded globally. Could the eurozone see some benefit from this dampened demand on globally traded goods before they go anywhere near their own interest rates?
When we examine the EU, China and the US, I think they’re all facing challenges which seem a little different. In my opinion, the only one facing a big structural problems is China, whereas what the EU and US face seems more cyclical in nature.
Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
I think you illustrate the complexities very well. If US inflation starts to slow because its economy does the same then the ECB is off the hook. Deglobalisation might mean the emergence of 2 or 3 trading blocs that don’t do much trade with each other. But I think, for the reasons you suggest, the death of globalisation is much exaggerated. Unless governments mandate restoring for strategic reasons, China is going to do that, after seeing what is happening to Russia. That;s just going to add to the Chinese problems that you identify.