The Chinese are very canny, I would be surprised if they did help Putin with his war on Ukraine. I don’t see any wins in it for them and they risk too much economically. The West has stood together quite unexpectedly, China won’t want to face a United effort where sanctions may well apply to them too. Like I said no wins, they already did a great deal on Russian resources so Russia has little more to offer. Putin’s bear isn’t as big as feared, we all have to live here and need to find a way to get along.
I notice the Irish Times website has audio files for some articles (bizarrely their app doesn’t have this). I also noticed that the likes of the guardian have some of their long-reads available as podcasts, where they just record somebody reading it out.
I suppose you may not want to cannibalise the content of the articles for the content of the next podcast. Something to think about anyway. I find in my busy schedule it’s much easier to listen on the go than read.
Thanks - I believe some newspapers have software that converts text to speech. Your point about busy schedules mean listening is easier than reading is something I’ve heard from many people.
There’s much talk of the additional supply chain disruption due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. I note Jim describing in some detail recently the volumes of global supplies directly from Russia.
My question is; with global supply chains being what they are, is the sanctions preventing the west buying a large amount of these raw materials somewhat of a moot point in many circumstances? When the supply chain begin and end with Russia and the west then fair enough, and that might be the case for agriculture. But for any materials that go somewhere else in the world first (with no sanctions) to be processed, refined, shipped, manufactured, etc., and the west has no sanctions with them; does that:
A) help keep Russia its supply chains going; and
B) actually create opportunities for other countries to set up new back-door channels for Russian produce
The history of sanctions is that they don't have much of an effect. That's not zero effect but they don't typically change the course of history. About the only time they did have a large effect was in the late 1950s when the Americans threatened to trash the pound (sterling) in response to the UK's invasion of Suez. The UK pulled out. That, of coiurse, was a financial threat which may the the most potent. For physical stuff there are often third parties and/or smuggling that will get around sanctions. Not completely, but enough to keep the regime in place. Just look at North Korea.
I agree the track record for sanctions is poor when it comes to forcing regime change. But I’m more thinking about the adverse consequences in the West from the sanctions. While Russian oil, gas and wheat are ordinarily exported directly to the Western World, the other raw material exports I would think tend not to be, and hence will indirectly find their way to the west. And only the US is stopping the oil and gas imports. In that context, is the prospect of Russian sanctions triggering a recession somewhat overstated?
Granted, China being sanctioned would be far more serious.
Apologies, I didn’t answer your question. The honest answer is that there will be adverse consequences, potentially severe ones, depending on how stringently sanctions are policed. We also don’t know if Russia itself will suspend oil/gas/grain exports. I would merely say that any Western pain will be worth it in the long run.
The Chinese are very canny, I would be surprised if they did help Putin with his war on Ukraine. I don’t see any wins in it for them and they risk too much economically. The West has stood together quite unexpectedly, China won’t want to face a United effort where sanctions may well apply to them too. Like I said no wins, they already did a great deal on Russian resources so Russia has little more to offer. Putin’s bear isn’t as big as feared, we all have to live here and need to find a way to get along.
I’m afraid your musings are rather terrifying 😢 Let’s hope the Chinese decide that they should hurt Russia when they’re in trouble!🤣
Good read again, Chris. A lot to think about. One certainly does wonder why one of the largest professional armies in the world needs so much help.
Great article again Chris.
Suggestion: consider creating audio files for these articles, and upload the files as podcasts
That is a very interesting idea- thanks. I usually include quite a few links to stuff elsewhere. How best to incorporate links in a podcast?
I notice the Irish Times website has audio files for some articles (bizarrely their app doesn’t have this). I also noticed that the likes of the guardian have some of their long-reads available as podcasts, where they just record somebody reading it out.
I suppose you may not want to cannibalise the content of the articles for the content of the next podcast. Something to think about anyway. I find in my busy schedule it’s much easier to listen on the go than read.
Thanks - I believe some newspapers have software that converts text to speech. Your point about busy schedules mean listening is easier than reading is something I’ve heard from many people.
Question for you guys:
There’s much talk of the additional supply chain disruption due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. I note Jim describing in some detail recently the volumes of global supplies directly from Russia.
My question is; with global supply chains being what they are, is the sanctions preventing the west buying a large amount of these raw materials somewhat of a moot point in many circumstances? When the supply chain begin and end with Russia and the west then fair enough, and that might be the case for agriculture. But for any materials that go somewhere else in the world first (with no sanctions) to be processed, refined, shipped, manufactured, etc., and the west has no sanctions with them; does that:
A) help keep Russia its supply chains going; and
B) actually create opportunities for other countries to set up new back-door channels for Russian produce
The history of sanctions is that they don't have much of an effect. That's not zero effect but they don't typically change the course of history. About the only time they did have a large effect was in the late 1950s when the Americans threatened to trash the pound (sterling) in response to the UK's invasion of Suez. The UK pulled out. That, of coiurse, was a financial threat which may the the most potent. For physical stuff there are often third parties and/or smuggling that will get around sanctions. Not completely, but enough to keep the regime in place. Just look at North Korea.
Thanks for the response.
I agree the track record for sanctions is poor when it comes to forcing regime change. But I’m more thinking about the adverse consequences in the West from the sanctions. While Russian oil, gas and wheat are ordinarily exported directly to the Western World, the other raw material exports I would think tend not to be, and hence will indirectly find their way to the west. And only the US is stopping the oil and gas imports. In that context, is the prospect of Russian sanctions triggering a recession somewhat overstated?
Granted, China being sanctioned would be far more serious.
Apologies, I didn’t answer your question. The honest answer is that there will be adverse consequences, potentially severe ones, depending on how stringently sanctions are policed. We also don’t know if Russia itself will suspend oil/gas/grain exports. I would merely say that any Western pain will be worth it in the long run.
Agree it’s absolutely worth it. Thanks for the response.