The debate about generational fairness is a really interesting and very contentious one. There is a kernel of truth in what both perspectives. On one hand the level of progress, in ireland in particular, since the 1980’s is remarkable. I think I said in a recent comment that I thought you were being a tad downbeat about the prospects for young people today when there’s so much good that’s now taken for granted.
All that said, there remains a demographic problem that’s only going to get worse. Next year, life expectancy will increase again, and that’s not by accident. In part it’s due to improving medical care, whose costs soar at a rate of around 4% above CPI. As we have less children the population becomes more concentrated in an elderly class who require and quite rightly demand the best of healthcare - with fewer people around to pay for it.
Each increase in life expectancy should (in my humble opinion) result in a stretching out of the various stages of one’s life. Yet what we have is a political block on that, from a cohort of the electorate who are becoming more numerous. A cohort largely insulated from the long term economic consequences of their political choices as their assets are bought and their income is guaranteed.
All increases in life expectancy are back loaded on to the end of the retirement phase when one stops contributing towards the costs of running the health service.
One saving Grace which young people should actually be thankful for is the normalisation of interest rates. Zero interest rates for a decade had resulted in asset prices soaring - which the elderly own and the young are trying to buy. Not just housing assets, also pensions. And for those earning and looking to accumulate wealth, it offered zero risk free returns. A higher interest rate environment is more progressive I think.
Good comments as always Sean. The pension age link to demography is a biggy. We all know the pension age should be higher but the block is fundamentally political. Just look at France. Tax treatment of pensions also needs fundamental reform. Tax free lump sum in particular.
The subject of which generation is better off I find interesting and encourage you to do more on if you have material that you can present to us.
For context I am just about a member of the "younger generation" in my mid thirties. Life for my generation has its challenges as it is hard to buy a house and a dangerous shortage of rental accommodation. Childcare costs are also an issue although I have no experience of that. However, there is no doubt in my mind that we have it better than our parents and they had it better than theirs. That doesn't apply to every individual but in my opinion it does to most. I am in the same profession as my father and although he owned property at my age that is the only thing he had that I don't, my standard of living is a lot higher than his was, I have a higher disposable income, multiple foreign holidays a year, regular meals out, more luxury items, higher education, a lot more opportunities and in general do not feel under pressure. I will admit the last point is a mindset and that could be the root of it.
Some commentary have brought figures to show that we are worse off but I do not buy it. I think it is just click bait tactics and was used by an Irish polication yesterday and it worked, she got a few headlines.
If I bring this topic up with most of my generation I will be dismissed as they look for sympathy and enjoy feeling like the victim. Many also have a very negative view of the future with I do not share, even with climate change I see standards of living continuing to improve
Thanks Adrian. I share your sentiments. It is a topic that we will keep analysing and commenting on. My sons have a higher standard of living that i had at their age (both in their 20s). Housing is the big issue of course.
Great podcast as always. So has Chris J changed his view on Sunak from his last interview with Eamon Dunphy and think that Sunak gets the process in Northern Ireland?
No, I think they would have got better buy-in if they had involved the DUP from the start rather than dropping the agreement on them. That said, maybe even that wouldn’t have worked. Sunak wants a deal not for its own sake but so he can move on to other things. And reap the political benefits of an electorate desperate never to talk about Brexit again.
Great podcast again lads.
The debate about generational fairness is a really interesting and very contentious one. There is a kernel of truth in what both perspectives. On one hand the level of progress, in ireland in particular, since the 1980’s is remarkable. I think I said in a recent comment that I thought you were being a tad downbeat about the prospects for young people today when there’s so much good that’s now taken for granted.
All that said, there remains a demographic problem that’s only going to get worse. Next year, life expectancy will increase again, and that’s not by accident. In part it’s due to improving medical care, whose costs soar at a rate of around 4% above CPI. As we have less children the population becomes more concentrated in an elderly class who require and quite rightly demand the best of healthcare - with fewer people around to pay for it.
Each increase in life expectancy should (in my humble opinion) result in a stretching out of the various stages of one’s life. Yet what we have is a political block on that, from a cohort of the electorate who are becoming more numerous. A cohort largely insulated from the long term economic consequences of their political choices as their assets are bought and their income is guaranteed.
All increases in life expectancy are back loaded on to the end of the retirement phase when one stops contributing towards the costs of running the health service.
One saving Grace which young people should actually be thankful for is the normalisation of interest rates. Zero interest rates for a decade had resulted in asset prices soaring - which the elderly own and the young are trying to buy. Not just housing assets, also pensions. And for those earning and looking to accumulate wealth, it offered zero risk free returns. A higher interest rate environment is more progressive I think.
Good comments as always Sean. The pension age link to demography is a biggy. We all know the pension age should be higher but the block is fundamentally political. Just look at France. Tax treatment of pensions also needs fundamental reform. Tax free lump sum in particular.
The subject of which generation is better off I find interesting and encourage you to do more on if you have material that you can present to us.
For context I am just about a member of the "younger generation" in my mid thirties. Life for my generation has its challenges as it is hard to buy a house and a dangerous shortage of rental accommodation. Childcare costs are also an issue although I have no experience of that. However, there is no doubt in my mind that we have it better than our parents and they had it better than theirs. That doesn't apply to every individual but in my opinion it does to most. I am in the same profession as my father and although he owned property at my age that is the only thing he had that I don't, my standard of living is a lot higher than his was, I have a higher disposable income, multiple foreign holidays a year, regular meals out, more luxury items, higher education, a lot more opportunities and in general do not feel under pressure. I will admit the last point is a mindset and that could be the root of it.
Some commentary have brought figures to show that we are worse off but I do not buy it. I think it is just click bait tactics and was used by an Irish polication yesterday and it worked, she got a few headlines.
If I bring this topic up with most of my generation I will be dismissed as they look for sympathy and enjoy feeling like the victim. Many also have a very negative view of the future with I do not share, even with climate change I see standards of living continuing to improve
Thanks Adrian. I share your sentiments. It is a topic that we will keep analysing and commenting on. My sons have a higher standard of living that i had at their age (both in their 20s). Housing is the big issue of course.
Great podcast as always. So has Chris J changed his view on Sunak from his last interview with Eamon Dunphy and think that Sunak gets the process in Northern Ireland?
No, I think they would have got better buy-in if they had involved the DUP from the start rather than dropping the agreement on them. That said, maybe even that wouldn’t have worked. Sunak wants a deal not for its own sake but so he can move on to other things. And reap the political benefits of an electorate desperate never to talk about Brexit again.