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Looking backwards, looking forward

Looking backward, looking forwards

2024: The biggest election year in history?

2024: The biggest election year in history?

Three central banks, two very different messages on interest rates

Three central banks, two very different messages on interest rates

Is the housing correction over before it has started? Lots of interest rate cuts now priced in - there could be lots of disappointment

Is the housing correction over before it has started? Lots of interest rate cuts now priced in - there could be lots of disappointment

Wow! For once, some real good news: those weight loss drugs could be the real deal. And, potentially, a bigger deal than originally thought!

Wow! For once, some real good news: those weight loss drugs could be the real deal. And, potentially, a bigger deal than originally thought!

Oh Canada! Jim promotes Ireland on a tour of Ottawa, Toronto & Montreal

Oh Canada! Jim promotes Ireland on a tour of Ottawa, Toronto & Montreal

Lower inflation astonishes central bankers but comes as no surprise to everyone else. A week of obituaries.

Lower inflation astonishes central bankers but comes as no surprise to everyone else. A week of obituaries.

Trump, Orban, Meloni, Le Pen, Farage: the right unites around immigration

Trump, Orban, Meloni, Le Pen, Farage: the right unites around immigration

Riots & unemployed young men. At a time of full employment. Tech & export weakness not (yet?) showing up in the jobs data

Riots & unemployed young men. At a time of full employment. Tech & export weakness not (yet?) showing up in the jobs data

War & Peace: A Diary

Cry for Argentina. NIMBY's should vote for Sinn Fein. When will we declare the housing crisis over?

Cry for Argentina. NIMBY's should vote for Sinn Fein. When will we declare the housing crisis over?

Economies are weakening - latest data. Markets start to think that interest rates are already too high

Economies are weakening - latest data. Markets start to think that interest rates are already too high

War & Peace: A Diary

The 30 year war continues. History explains the latest battle. The Tories never disappoint.

The 30 year war continues. History explains the latest battle. The Tories never disappoint.

Cameron uncancelled. Rishi's change agenda unravels. Culture wars over?

Cameron uncancelled. Rishi's change agenda unravels. Culture wars over?

Why is everything in the UK so crap? Why is zero growth now a good outcome?

Why is everything in the UK so crap? Why is zero growth now a good outcome?

The return of the Don: a 2nd term for Trump? What US autocracy might mean for the world

The return of the Don: a 2nd term for Trump? What US autocracy might mean for the world

Stolen Identity. Our new politics: good ideas taken to ludicrous and sinister extremes

Stolen Identity. Our new politics: good ideas taken to ludicrous and sinister extremes

The end of the Corporation tax boom? Economies now slowing everywhere. More big moves in interest rates: is the next move down?

Entitlement, identity & objective truth

The end of the Corporation tax boom? Economies now slowing everywhere. More big moves in interest rates: is the next move down?

Can Elon Musk upload himself? Is ChatGPT eating itself? What is consciousness? And so much more!

Can Elon Musk upload himself? Is ChatGPT eating itself? What is consciousness? And so much more!

The Rugby World Cup: the final. Where is the game now? And a look forward to Leinster's season

The Rugby World Cup: the final. Where is the game now? And a look forward to Leinster's season

Ukraine War Diary

Catastrophic cyber attack within the next year? Floods, climate change & the limits of government intervention.

Catastrophic cyber attack within the next year? Floods, climate change & the limits of government intervention.

SOME THOUGHTS AHEAD OF OCTOBER 26th ECB MEETING

Rugby World Cup semis: a good advert for rugby? Nathan Johns of the Irish Times takes us through all the actions and all of the issues

Rugby World Cup semis: a good advert for rugby? Nathan Johns of the Irish Times takes us through all the action and all of the issues

A Mad World, My Masters

A Mad World, My Masters

The world becomes ever more dangerous. Joining dots from Ukraine to Azerbaijan to Israel to Taiwan: how bad will it get?

The world becomes ever more dangerous. Joining dots from Ukraine to Azerbaijan to Israel to Taiwan: how bad will it get?

Rugby World Cup Exit. 9 times out of 10, Ireland would have won that one. Luck, NZ moments of brilliance and the odd Irish error.

Rugby World Cup Exit. 9 times out of 10, Ireland would have won that one. Luck, NZ moments of brilliance and the odd Irish error.

Ukraine war diary

Budget 2024, US & Irish inflation and the Middle East

Budget 2024, US & Irish inflation and the Middle East

Budget 2024

Israel & war: more storm clouds. ESRI adds economic reasons for caution. US jobs market miracle?

Israel & war: more storm clouds. ESRI adds economic reasons for caution. US jobs market miracle?

Ireland demolish Scotland: Nathan Johns of the Irish Times discusses the weekend's Rugby World Cup

Ireland demolish Scotland: Nathan Johns of the Irish Times discusses the weekend's Rugby World Cup

FIVE WAYS THAT LABOUR CAN MAKE BREXIT WORK (BETTER)

Fairness, inequality and redistribution. Many of us think we live in a 'winner takes all world'. Yet the clamour for redistribution remains muted. Why?

Fairness, inequality and redistribution. Many of us think we live in a 'winner takes all world'. Yet the clamour for redistribution remains muted.

Ukraine war diary

Does the world have brain damage? Neuroscientist Prof. Shane O'Mara discusses right brain problems and is a lot more optimistic than Chris & Jim

Does the world have brain damage? Neuroscientist Prof. Shane O'Mara discusses right brain problems and is a lot more optimistic than Chris & Jim

Ireland: Brexit's biggest beneficiary? Farage close to complete takeover of UK Tories. EU house prices show chunky falls.

Ireland: Brexit's biggest beneficiary? Farage close to complete takeover of UK Tories. EU house prices show chunky falls.

EXCHEQUER RETURNS END-SEPTEMBER 2023

A NOTE AHEAD OF BUDGET 2024

Joining the dots

Ukraine war diary

The gathering storm: should the budget be cancelled? Oil prices and bond yields going up again: an economy killing combination.

The gathering storm: should the budget be cancelled? Oil prices and bond yields going up again: an economy killing combination.

More Irish people than ever: a very good thing. .. J. P. Morgan boss muses about 7% interest rates: a vey bad thing

More Irish people than ever: a very good thing. J P Morgan boss muses about 7% interest rates: a vey bad thing

Did Ireland deserve to beat S. Africa? Nathan Johns of the Irish Times takes us through the vital stats

Did Ireland deserve to beat S. Africa? Nathan Johns of the Irish Times takes us through the vital stats

Big moves in financial markets as the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative takes hold. We call BS.

Big moves in financial markets as the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative takes hold. We call BS.

Ukraine war diary

The Irish Economy: still growing but slowing. Finance Minister for a day. UK: big inflation surprise

The Irish Economy: still growing but slowing. Finance Minister for a day. UK: big inflation surprise

Rugby World Cup - latest analysis with Nathan Johns of the Irish Times

Rugby World Cup - latest analysis with Nathan Johns of the Irish Times

Oil heading towards $100 may mean the good news on inflation is over. With more bad news on interest rates to come.

Oil heading towards $100 may mean the good news on inflation is over. With more bad news on interest rates to come.

Ukraine war diary

A radical suggestion for budget 2024: cut taxes for the under 35s. Another ECB mistake in the offing? Dynamic beer pricing has arrived.

A radical suggestion for budget 2024: cut taxes for the under 35s. Another ECB mistake in the offing? Dynamic beer pricing has arrived.

Is this the beginning of the end of the (corporation) tax boom? The most intensely political budget looms

Is this the beginning of the end of the (corporation) tax boom? The most intensely political budget looms

Ukraine war diary

The Rugby World Cup Begins! A belter of an opening match followed by almost two months of the ultimate rugby festival.

The Rugby World Cup Begins! A belter of an opening match followed by almost two months of the ultimate rugby festival.

An Economist and a Neuroscientist walk into a bar…

An Economist and a neuroscientist walk into a bar

The centre cannot hold

Ukraine war diary

Inflation falls - then rises because of official policy measures to boost prices. Followed by budget 2024 measures to mitigate the cost of living crisis

Inflation falls - then rises because of official policy measures to boost prices. Followed by budget 2024 measures to mitigate the cost of living crisis

Abolish planning laws to cure housing crisis? Lessons from bombing London. Monetary dinosaurs spotted in Germany.

Abolish planning laws to cure housing crisis? Lessons from bombing London. Monetary dinosaurs spotted in Germany.

THE INTERACTION OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICS

Unemployment cured, Irish style. EU slips into recession? The UK is not London.

Unemployment cured, Irish style. EU slips into recession? The UK is not London.

Ukraine war diary

China: it's getting serious. What does it mean for the world?

China: it's getting serious. What does it mean for the world?

ECB SHOULD NOW TAKE A BREAK

Bond crash - why this is so important. China crisis? Our ignorance about inflation.

Bond crash - why this is so important. China crisis? Our ignorance about inflation.

Ukraine war diary

More dystopian fiction from the ITimes. UK inflation horrors. Italian anti-business right-wing politics.

More dystopian fiction from the ITimes. UK inflation horrors. Italian anti-business right-wing politics.

SOME HOUSING NEWS

Truthiness, populism and stochastic parrots. Think you know how your brain works? Neuroscientist Professor Shane O'Mara takes us through the exciting and fascinating discoveries in how we think.

Truthiness, populism and stochastic parrots. Think you know how your brain works? Neuroscientist Professor Shane O'Mara takes us through the exciting and fascinating discoveries in how we think.

Ukraine war diary

Why not spend the €65bn on social housing? Should we rescue people from their financial folly? Biden builds on Trump's policies.

Why not spend the €65bn on social housing? Should we rescue people from their financial folly? Biden builds on Trump's policies.

Ireland and the BBC. Banks deserve everything they are about to get. China deflates?

Ireland and the BBC. Banks deserve everything they are about to get. China deflates?

Ukraine war diary

The Age of Whataboutism

Mortgage rates and savings rates: banks go for the better PR. Are their mega profits sustainable?

Mortgage rates and savings rates: banks go for the better PR. Are their mega profits sustainable?

Turbulence over Dublin Airport. EV sales take off but might lose power.

Turbulence over Dublin Airport. EV sales take off but might lose power.

PIECE ON IRISH BANKING

A much bigger story than RTE goes unreported. Lots of economic data confuses more than it clarifies

A much bigger story than RTE goes unreported. Lots of economic data confuses more than it clarifies

Ukraine War Diary

Big week for interest rates, but is the peak getting further away with recent rises in commodity prices? Global economic data is painting a very mixed picture.

Big week for interest rates, but is the peak getting further away with recent rises in commodity prices? Global economic data is painting a very mixed picture.

Is Putin trying to get your mortgage rate up? Food prices under threat again. China is caught between a rock and a hard place.

Is Putin trying to get your mortgage rate up? Food prices under threat again. China is caught between a rock and a hard place.

Ukraine War Diary

Ireland booms or just avoids recession? Falling exports - technical or threat to growth and public finances?

Ireland booms or just avoids recession? Falling exports - technical or threat to growth and public finances?

LATEST CSO HOUSE PRICE DATA

Has Ryan Tubridy done the nation a great service? If inflation is coming back down all on its own, why raise interest rates? The UK is literally getting sick.

Has Ryan Tubridy done the nation a great service? If inflation is coming back down all on its own, why raise interest rates? The UK is literally getting sick.

TAXPAYER MONEY NEEDS TO BE SPENT WITH A FOCUS ON OUTPUTS RATHER THAN INPUTS

Ukraine War Diary

Everybody wants to rule the world

Ukraine war diary

If central bankers get their way, your house price could fall - perhaps by a lot. The many mysteries of modern economics.

If central bankers get their way, your house price could fall - perhaps by a lot. The many mysteries of modern economics.

Ireland's embarrassment of riches? Tax revenues explode in the first half of 2023. What to do with them?

SUMMER ECONOMIC STATEMENT AND MID-YEAR EXCHEQUER RETURNS

RTE, celebrity pay and hopeless governance. Bidenomics: some surprising consequences. The usual suspects tell McGrath not to cut taxes. He will ignore them. .

Ukraine war diary

Interest rates start to bite. House prices, obviously, but also in some unexpected places. UK water companies just one example - plenty of others.

Seven years on from the Brexit referendum. Still as controversial as ever, despite the evidence saying there is no controversy. Dealing with complexity in a world that excludes experts.

Ukraine war news: coup or mutiny? Or civil war?

The UK: in a deep hole and still digging. The riskiness of the mortgage. Brexit: Good for Ireland?

The UK: in a deep hole and still digging. The riskiness of the mortgage. Brexit: Good for Ireland?

Fretting over Irish inflation completely misses the point of the Euro? Things could be worse: UK has much lower trend growth, much higher core inflation - stagflation nation.

Fretting over Irish inflation completely misses the point of the Euro? Things could be worse: UK has much lower trend growth, much higher core inflation - stagflation nation.

Chat GPT skills now needed for entry level finance jobs. Extraordinary times for a few US companies. Gas prices volatile again

Chat GPT skills now needed for entry level finance jobs. Extraordinary times for a few US companies. Gas prices very volatile again

Brexit’s Unwanted Birthday Present

Reposting from February: On Bullshit

Johnson's legacy, Britain's tragedy

Ukraine floods, Putin waits for Trump. Broken windows policing - why we are paying the price for Obama's inaction.

Ukraine floods, Putin waits for Trump. Broken windows policing - why we are paying the price for Obama's inaction.

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Is the housing crisis solvable? How much is it to do with a population that has nearly doubled? Will S. County Dublin have to be told to add an extra three stories?

Is the housing crisis solvable? How much is it to do with a population that has nearly doubled? Will S. County Dublin have to be told to add an extra three stories?

Boom or recession: data says both! What's going on?

Boom or recession: data says both! What's going on?

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Don't poke Twitter! Saying nice things about Ireland is not allowed! Biden runs rings around the Republicans over the debt ceiling. Lower inflation brings interest rate hope to Europe.

Don't poke Twitter! Saying nice things about Ireland is not allowed! Biden runs rings around the Republicans over the debt ceiling. Lower inflation brings interest rate hope to Europe.

Germany in recession, US growth up, even the UK is doing better. Working from home - what happens if there is a recession: power back to the employers?

Germany in recession, US growth up, even the UK is doing better. Working from home - what happens if there is a recession: power back to the employers?

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Banks making out like bandits. Energy companies making out like banks. Wholesale Energy prices down again.

Banks making out like bandits. Energy companies making out like banks. Wholesale Energy prices down again.

Rugby special! Lessons from Leinster's loss. Fine margins, another trophy-less season and looking ahead to the World Cup. With Nathan Johns of The Irish Times

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Guns, babies and Jesus: America tries to export its culture wars to the UK. A debt bomb in the housing market? "Brexit has failed", but Farage is still here.

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A sideways look at Ukraine war news

National Conservatism - coming soon to a country near you?

US Debt bomb to be defused? Latest housing data point to a proper slowdown. Latest EU Commission forecasts: part of the monolithic, gloomy consensus

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GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN THE RETAIL MARKET

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Food inflation: curable by shouting at retailers? US slow banking crisis rumbles on. UK avoids recession but not boiled frog syndrome. Surprising similarities between Shinners and Lib-Dems.

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Fintan does it again

The Finance Minister continues to drown in cash. Unemployment below 4% - only 2nd time in Irish history. Big week for interest rates: are we there yet?

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A sideways look at Ukraine war news

The US has found a common enemy to unite against: China. AI is not going to kill you - not yet at least. The Fed will get the slowdown it wants, maybe even recession. And much, much more!

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Reposting: Why Economic growth matters. Much more than Michael D thinks. This is why he is dangerously wrong

Michael D and a little knowledge. Another one-off banking failure in the US. Getting to the top of the mountain and finding nothing there.

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A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Bumper tech profits = yet more corporate taxes? Ireland: a small economy + 10 large companies. Biden & the debt ceiling: a crisis coming to you soon.

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'Greedflation' - are we being price gouged by the usual suspects? At least tech profits bode well for Irish corporation tax take. Another 'isolated' bank in trouble.

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Fintan’s way

HOUSING IN CRISIS, BUT WE MUST SPEND FISCAL RESOURCES WISELY

What is Ireland going to do with all its money? Do a Norway or a UK? Oil prices reverse. AI accelerates: ignore it at your peril.

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AI will upend your world

China moves to the world's centre stage. British journalism: offensive or xenophobic about Ireland? The government says the Irish economy will remain in rude health

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A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

Who has the Special Relationship, UK or Ireland? Macron's foreign policy fail. Are businesses using inflation as an excuse to hike profits?

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Global economic gloom from the IMF. But has it just issued the biggest stock market 'buy' signal since 2009? And some thoughts on social media bile and hatred.

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Recession narrative is everywhere except the data. IMF joins the gloomsters. Could AI turbocharge growth and prove them all wrong?

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

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Is the tax system fair?

Ireland's tax machine remains in top gear. Could tax cuts be self-financing? Global house prices dropping. Commercial property now a big concern. Is OPEC worried about global growth?

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My conspiracy theory

A sideways look at Ukrainian War News

House prices crack. Banking crisis over? The AI debate grows as fast as AI itself: exponentially

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Please give this post marks out of 10: it's written entirely by AI, by ChatGPT (lightly edited to change American into English)

Double whammy for the world economy? Interest rates to fall ? Democracy displays its limits.

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A sideways look at Ukraine war news

We are an utterly unserious species

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Financial crisis 2.0: here we go again. It means the economy - jobs - at risk. Interest rates up again: a big mistake?

How badly off are the younger generation?

GLOBAL BANKING WOES

A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

Grand Slam edition! Ad-free for our subscribers

Grand Slam Special! Reflections on Ireland's first Dublin Grand Slam win. And a chat about sports journalism and the future of print & other media.

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Quantitative destruction: Has the ECB made another gigantic error? Hope and fear: we hope the banking crisis is over, we fear that is not.

The sports edition of the pod. Ad-free for our subscribers

The sporting edition of the podcast! Some Cheltenham, a little bit of Cricket and a lot of Rugby. With Nathan Johns from The Irish Times.

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Three failed US banks, one big global financial problem. US bank regulation has failed, reminding us that banks are still not fit for purpose?

A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

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Gary Lineker and the great BBC fail. A big bank fails in the US: canary or nothingburger?

Things that go bump in the night

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Has Brexit Fever finally been broken? All things Windsor Agreement, all things Brexit - with Professor Chris Grey.

Gary Lineker war tracker

Housing evictions: politically toxic, emotionally troubling, personal tragedy. But necessary? The 'Godot' economy. Banks as bandits. Again.

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IRISH MORTGAGE HOLDERS TO ENDURE MORE PAIN

Blogs, pods & other great stuff: my pick of the past week's news, opinion & analysis from around the world

Is Brexit done? Or just the next chapter of the psychodrama?

A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

How high will mortgage rates go? Good economic news with bad inflation numbers suggest much higher interest rates in the pipeline. Irish economy continues to power ahead. How would you invest €6bn?

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IRISH GROWTH DATA FOR Q4 2022 & FOR THE FULL YEAR

Windsor Framework or Windsor Knot? It looks like a big deal. But the still the DUP complains.

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China's message to Russia: no nukes and don't lose. More bad inflation news. Will central banks break the global property market?

A sideways look at Ukrainian war news

Everyone is talking about the problem. It’s just dawned on us that nobody is going to do anything about it.

Big positive economic surprises - even in Europe. Even in the UK! What's wrong with a little wage inflation? Interest rate expectations move up again. Curve balls and landings.

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

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The big question: buy a house now or wait? Interest rates do look to be going higher for longer. Lessons for nationalist parties elsewhere from the demise of Nicola Sturgeon?

LATEST IRISH MERCHANDISE EXPORTS & RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICES

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Everybody is getting more optimistic about the world economy. The inflation fight could get tricky from here - bad for interest rate prospects. Brexiteers disappear down the conspiracy rabbit hole

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AI, ChatGPT3 (and 4): hype or revolutionary? Will Microsoft eat Google’s lunch? Plus the latest economic news and our thoughts about the monetary nutcases at the ECB

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

Rugby special! With the 6 nations underway we chat with Irish Times sports journalist Nathan Johns. From what makes quality sports writing to Ireland’s prospects.

Rugby special! With the 6 nations underway we chat with Irish Times sports journalist Nathan Johns. From what makes quality sports writing to Ireland’s prospects.

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What recession? US economy confuses everybody. So does the head of the ECB. Irish tax machine continues to purr. Chris defends his pessimism on the state of the UK.

LESSONS FOR IRELAND FROM BREXIT DEBACLE

INTEREST RATE TIGHTENING CONTINUES

On Bullshit

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Ireland boosts the EU economy. Three years of Brexit, three years of Brexit BS. IMF forecasts Russia to grow, UK to shrink.

The Irish Housing Market

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

The UK Chancellor of Exchequer speaks. Is he laughing with us or at us?

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US economy refuses to enter recession. Will anybody notice better Irish house building data? Shinners hoist on their own petard. UK opens a new front in the war on drugs.

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Energy prices fall, Europe’s economy starts to grow again but the U.K. does not. Troubled times for ex-finance ministers.

Blogs, pods & other great stuff: my pick of the past week's news, opinion & analysis from around the world

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

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Election expenses: materiality and hypocrisy. Is Sinn Fein really an all-Ireland party? How bad is it for tech and banking? Chinese demography & the rise of Africa.

Latest economic news and a debate about the housing crisis. Does the government get it? Does any politician?

SUMMARY OF IRISH MERCHANDISE TRADE JAN-NOV 2022

Who Broke Britain? The list of suspects.

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

More good news on inflation. More good news for the Irish economy. The UK: are the problems solvable? Some amazing insights into US politics.

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Is the economic outlook really as bad as most forecasters are saying? We look at the case for optimism. Some thoughts on NIMBYs in Ireland and UK. The surprising story behind falling oil prices

HOW MUCH OF A CONCERN ARE GLOBAL TECH WOES FOR IRELAND

'Broken Britain': Part 3. The scene of the crime and the list of suspects.

A sideways look at Ukraine war news

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Some good news on inflation, great news on gas prices, same old news on Irish tax revenues. The really deep hole that the UK has dug for itself

2022 IRISH EXCHEQUER RETURNS

Reposting: Why Economic growth matters. Much more than Michael D thinks. This is why he is dangerously wrong

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